The Federal Reserve Bank of New York FRBNY “Nowcast” for 3rd Quarter GDP is 2.6%, updated today.

This compares to the GDPNow forecast of 3.7%, also updated today.

GDPNow Latest forecast: 3.8 percent — August 5, 2016

GDPNow 2016-08-05

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.8 percent on August 5, up from 3.7 percent on August 4. After this morning’s employment situation release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning’s international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 8.1 percent to 8.8 percent.

FRBNY Nowcast August 5, 2016: Highlights

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2016:Q3.
  • Overall this week’s data releases had a slightly positive effect.
  • The largest positive contribution came from labor data.

Nowcast 2016-08-05B

The difference between these two forecasts is now 1.2 percentage points. That’s quite a lot. At least one of the models is way off.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock