The situation in Ukraine is heating up again. In the past few days, numerous article discuss a Russian military buildup on the Crimea-Ukraine border.
The Irish Times offers this sensational headline: Ukraine Claims Russian Invasion Possible ‘At Any Minute’.
Ukraine has claimed that a Russian invasion is possible “at any minute”, amid reports that Moscow’s troops and armour were on the move in Crimea and a separatist leader in eastern Ukraine survived a bomb attack.
The warning from Kiev stoked fears of a return to all-out war in Ukraine, where the United Nations and monitors from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) have noted an ominous recent surge in violence.
Witnesses
Ukraine Today piles on with Russia Massing Tanks Near Crimean Border With Mainland Ukraine – Witnesses.
Witnesses report large amounts of Russian military hardware have been massed near the towns of Dzhankoy and Armyansk in Crimea’s north, close to the administrative border with mainland Ukraine.
“At about 07:00 local time today [Sunday, August 7], the Russian occupying authorities suspended, for unknown reasons, the handling of citizens and vehicles crossing the administrative border with Crimea,” the press center of the State Border Service of Ukraine told UNIAN on Sunday.
Colonel Cassad Chimes In
As is typically the case, one needs to turn to Colonel Cassad for an accurate assessment.
Translation from Russian is always difficult, and in this case impossible (at least for me) because the above article is not text, but an image of text.
Reader Jacob Dreizin comes to the rescue. Piecing together various Cassad articles, there was a raid from Ukraine into Crimea two nights ago. The Russian border post at Armiansk (Armyansk) was attacked. Unofficial reports suggest there are one to four dead on the Russian side.
In response, scores of military vehicles have been brought to the area, with helicopters in the air.
The above link discusses seven infiltrators from Ukraine and acknowledges unspecified “losses” on the Russian side.
Assassination Attempt
On Saturday, Igor Plotnitsky, leader of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic is believed to have been injured when a bomb exploded in Luhansk beside the vehicle he was traveling in.
Unknown Reasons Explained
Other than assassination attempts and a border attack by Armed Forces of the Ukraine commando team, the Ukraine-Crimea border was closed for “unknown” reasons.
Border attack analysis was readily available on Colonel Cassad, but somehow such reports never make it into mainstream media.
Instead, we see headline stories like Russia masses troops on Crimea border in “preparation of invasion at any minute”.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Yes, the sensational story is sheer nonsense, as usual. Putin has never started a war, and is a very patient man. When the EU collapses, the Eastern Ukraine will fall into his lap without any effort.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ONt2_Ep_lSo/VhxXYviuDOI/AAAAAAAAQoY/A-dd7atfVrk/s640/12143312_10153246983992309_6122183248381667454_n.jpg
Scores of vehicles = massive invasion force.
Details aren’t clear what went on, FortRuss changes casualties, mention that the border shooting occurred after a military exercise was already started.
http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/08/crimean-border-incident-with-ukrainian.html
Other sources talk of the attack taking place from the Crimean side.
In short, if a Russian propaganda source can’t even give a clear story, how is western msm supposed to be able to report anything?
Self proclaimed officials in contested territory tend to get targeted, seems to go with jobs like that.
Looking at The Saker, the reporting is such that after the border attack there was a DRG team on the loose, and that the military cordoned off several areas. I surmise that they are looking for the sabotage team.
I also credit the Russians with far more tactical and strategic sense; one does not invade Ukraine by running through a narrow choke point.
Indeed. Russia can invade the Ukraine anywhere along the long borders. Why would they take the trouble to move heavy armour and vehicles to Crimea by boat to invade the Ukraine across a narrow stretch of land? From the point of view of logistics, this would be crazy.
Russia desperately needs a supply corridor through Mariupol between Donetsk and Crimea. Tatars, Ukrainian Army, CIA units, and the Russian Army routinely send patrols across the border in both directions.
The real war is fought in Russian schools and groceries. 41% of Russians say they haven’t enough money for food and clothes. Like Venezuela, Russia lacks the manpower and incentives to provide. Russian students strive to achieve the skills to snag a job in the free world. Every year for twenty years one million Russian students succeed and emigrate to the West for jobs. What’s left of Russia is the old women, drunks, retards, and oligarchs. If the oil price swings to $25/bbl many of these must starve or freeze.
And why does Russia need such a supply corridor? Up until now thay have been managing supplies to Crimea by boat and are halfway building a bridge across Kerch strait — lost effort if they are going to use a highway connection through Mariupol. Donbass is easy for them to reach now, and there is no pressing need to have transportation between Donbass and Crimea. Comparison of Russian education and efforts and the below mediocre levels of achievements at US public schools is certainly no recommendation for the US.
Half the Russian navy is rusted out and won’t float but for the titanium hull submarines. Civilian navy is in worse repair. Last year a Russian fishing trawler pulled itself apart southwest of Vladivostok. All aboard perished in the cold water. The Kerch electric line burned out when if was connected. Good luck with the new electric line, power station, and transformers.
Jack – it is almost as if you are hoping that Russia fails. Russia has NOT been the aggressor during the past few years. Leave them alone!
Bull, have you ever been in Russia? Plenty of young men. And most of them are fit, not like fat iPhone pokemon hunters.
Good. Then food should be no problem. : ) After 65 years of sanctions the Russian men should be taller than the average 147 centimeter North Korean.
“What’s left of Russia is the old women, drunks, retards, and oligarchs.”
You are a poet.
I checked pravda for the official account:
Lenur Isliamov, Vice President of the World Congress of Crimean Tatars, reported that “military training is likely to take place next to the administrative border. So far, the objective of the training is not clear. But armed men allegedly stay some 500 meters from the checkpoints of the occupiers and shut a passage to these checkpoints,” local publisher ’15 minutes’ cites Isliamov.
http://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2016/08/7/7117059/
I bet I know what the Russian army likes…
https://youtu.be/YlcY_enzwmI
The Irish Times repeats the usual nonsense:
1. Minsk accords are not being implemented by Russia, without giving any details about which stipulations are not being met. [Political process and federalization on the part of the Ukraine is now the chief obstacle, as various heads of state in the EU have since admitted]
2. Annexation of Crimea by Russian forces, [The Russians had a lease on facilities in Crimea until 2042. They already had 16.000 troops there for years before the Maidan coup d’état ever got started, and came nowhere near exceeding the 25.000 number of troops that they were permitted to station there. Initially there were fears for social unrest due to the influx of terrorists from Turkey and the burning/persecution of Russian-speaking Ukrainians (among them busses of demonstraters from Crimea) in Odessa and elsewhere.]
Under the agreements, Russia was permitted to station a maximum of 25,000 troops, 132 armored combat vehicles and 24 pieces of artillery at its military facilities in Crimea. i’ll agree that they are probably well below that now, but there is also reputed to be another coup attempt in the making in Turkey and I’d bet that it has more to do with a showing of force against anybody thinking of overthrowing Erdogan. More evidence of a 2nd coup brings in more troops and equipment as Putin dares Obama.
Greg – I bet you’re right.
The last thing the Russians want is war. They have long memories and know that war is hell when it’s on the homefront.
The American people have no idea what war is all about – except for the families who have lost loved ones in combat. To the rest war is only something that we read about in the newspaper or see on the 6 o’clock news. Nobody ever loses any sleep over it because it’s 10,000 miles away.
I don’t think we’d fare very well if we had to fight an enemy on the homefront. We’ve lived isolated lives.
We’ll always favor war as long as doesn’t impact our day to day lives or the draft is restored and our sons are forced to participate.
Only then will we see pushback.
The Russians know better.
The Russians know that if the USA tries to implement a military draft this nation will explode and that without a draft there is no way we’re fighting a war with Russia.
The thousands of caskets a month will doom the party and politicians that vote for it.
The 1980’s just called, they want their paranoia back.
1) USA needs a draft to defeat nobody.
2) The idea of a Russian soldiers taking US soil is preposterous – why do it?
3) The idea of a US soldiers taking Russian soil is preposterous – why do it?
4) The primary danger of war with Russia is Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
The absolute worst case face-to-face escalation scenario leads to US air strikes on Russian nuclear sites.
Any ground fighting will involve a corpse of 10,000 “military advisors” and take place in a country to weak to protect itself from either side.
The Russians know that if the USA tries to implement a military draft this nation will explode and that without a draft there is no way we’re fighting a war with Russia.
The thousands of caskets a month will doom the party and politicians that vote for it.
USA policy since Bush II has been preemptive wars, including using nuclear first strikes if Obama’s presidential speeches on the subject are to be believed. Nuclear-capable missiles positioned along Russia’s borders in Poland and Romania, within 5 minutes striking distance, are the real Russian worry. Napoleon and Hitler could not prevail in the Russian homeland with millions of troops, and I doubt the USA would go that route. More likely the neo-Cons and War Party would favor a first-strike nuclear war, which they say is winnable (USA cities would be acceptable “collateral damage”).
Just imagine if the Russians planted ICBM missiles in Mexico or Canada and claimed that they were to be used for defensive purposes only. ha. Remember how we reacted to the Bay of Pigs? The hypocrisy is over the top. Don’t do as we do. Do as we say. Is it any wonder that contempt for our nation has grown exponentially across the globe in the last 12-15 years? We had every right to go after the ones responsible for 911 and neutralize them. But we used it as a rationale for a nation building exercise. That’s what people resent.
“Just imagine”
That could be a title for all the moronic fantasist comments on mish’s posts.
Here’s where that is right now;
The official narrative:
https://www.sss.gov/Registration/Women-And-Draft
But, then again, Women may soon be required to register for the military draft. The National Defense Authorization Act passed the Senate in June 2016 with a vote of 85-13:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/15/politics/senate-approves-women-draft/
Senate OKs mega military policy bill. See how your lawmakers voted:
http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/capitol-hill/2016/06/14/ndaa-how-did-your-senator-vote/85885350/
As far as I know, the House has not taken it up yet, dare they in an election year.
“I don’t think we’d fare very well if we had to fight an enemy on the homefront. We’ve lived isolated lives.”
No, I think that would be one of the situations where we’d do very well. We’d be the ones who “would still be here after you’re gone.” And to repeat the quote attributed to but never made by Yamamoto, but which is still true, “You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.”
“You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.”
That is, unless Hitlery is elected. She does not believe in the right of self-defense, and she has made it a big part of her platform.
You’re missing 2 very important points, Winston:
1. This is 2016, not 1940. War is not contingent upon a man-made invasion. Technology has solved that dilemma while at the same time manufacturing another one much more perilous: A push-button war that mere oceans cannot protect us against.
2. Some may contend that the invasion has already started at the behest of those who run America. Do you think importing the impoverished illiterate who have no allegiance to America or valued skills is the answer to growing our economy and restoring growth and properity for our citizens?
Did you read Mish’ latest blog? Productivity has been down for multiple quarters. Millions of illegal invaders who want to feed their families have not remedied that problem. Hello?
And many of those invaders feel that the land they now occupy was stolen from them hundreds of years ago. The resentment mounts – particulary as it’s fueled by leftist tripe.
Those are the points that I think may have evaded your argument.
LF, do you seriously believe USA could lose a push button war?
In fact Colonel Cassad did not say nothing of the sort that is claimed here.
What he said is basically “Something happened for sure, but there is not enough information and a lot of speculations. It’s clear that (Russian) authorities are withholding information at this time, so add your inside sources in the comments if you have any”.
There were a couple of picture-posts with fake looking texts as examples of unreliable information around.
The picture-fakes and a lot of rumors do stipulate that there was an attack (or two) from the Ukrainian side with casualties on Russia side.
Additionally another theory is all of this is to stop the flow of Ukrainian tourists to The Crimea (the flow being a lot more than is reasonable by Ukrainian opinion, given that these are people bringing their money to “the occupants” and such). There were even (unknown authenticity ) leaks of documents where Ukrainian department heads complained bout the flow and theorized of ways to disrupt the flow, including “close the border, but blame it on Russians – something that happened this time in fact).
Moreover, about the troops movement, he first noted that there was a big move of armored carriers out of the Crimea (theory was it was for some sort of a training exercises). And then some were moved in and the speculation is the numbers are roughly even out.
Attention: USA Presidential Election Propaganda season. Russia must be demonized for the greater good of Hillary and the War Party agenda.
Ukraine.gov was setup and is to some degree owned and operated by USA.gov Neo-cons like Hillary’s Sec. of State assistant, Victoria Nuland (of “f_ck the EU” fame). Only makes sense that the Neo-con vassals in Ukraine generate some good War Party propaganda. We already have Russia taking the blame in the mainstream media for Hillary’s email servers, despite no real evidence. Hillary should get at least some of the blame for hiring the KGB to run her State Dept. computer. I mean, what a dimwit, with all the resources of USA.gov behind her she could not figure these things out.
I think we have a larger anti-Russia propaganda platform being formed in support of Hillary against Trump for the Nov. election. Even if USA.gov and the mainstream media fail to recognize it, for the rest of the world (outside the EU vassals) and for all practical purposes, Crimea is part of Russia. So, Russian troops movements into or out of Crimea should be no different than USA troops mobilizing to Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, or San Juan, Puerto Rico, or Russia’s former Alaska territories. Or for that matter the National Guard moving into Ferguson or Detroit to quell riots. Expect more anti-Russia propaganda at least through Nov. Media mountains will be built from mole hills.
The bridge from Russia to Crimea is scheduled for completion within a year. Then by 2018 it’ll be accompanied by a rail line. Transportation freedom will result in true independence of the region from Ukraine. The clock is ticking.
Playing With Fire…
Eventually you get burned.
This so-called “free” press report is nothing more than propaganda from the same MSM owned, elite controlled “Ministry of Truth”. For consumption by the mindless masses.
Along with recent reports of Japan going to a high level of military alert to counter any “offensive” action by North Korea. And the US moving B1 bombers into the eastern Pacific for the first time in a decade.
Sooner or later, the genie is going to let out of the bottle. The “Administration” in the US is no longer a ministry to administer, rather now it has become a “Regime”. It matters not which side of the house you sit in, since the entire edifice is now a part of the whole regime.
This presidential election is nothing more than a charade. The “Regime” will dictate who gets to sit on the throne to do their bidding. Make no mistake, the second amendment will be destroyed. In a years time the US will no longer be recognizable. It will happen before people realize it and can take action. Too late. War is good for business.
I think some of your comments have merit. But your opinion that the 2nd Amendment is pending elimination is far fetched. Look, there are more guns in America than there are people. Do you really believe the government has the ability to confiscate even 10%-15% of them? Sorry. That horse left the barn years ago never to return again. The average American isn’t too bright but he’s sharp enough to know that once he gives his hog up that he’d have nothing to protect himself and his family against the millions who’d choose to disobey the order and keep theirs. Naturally that would include the large population of criminal predators. So don’t be too concerned about the 2nd Amendment. That would be as futile as outlawing the television set.
Russian private sector Economy Is booming. State sector is ( correctly ) being shrunk. Russia has current Account Surplus. Nil foreign debt. living Standards have tripled Since 2000.
US Congress and Obama’s bureaucrats approved LNG export licenses for 2/3 the capacity of Russian natural gas exports to Europe at 1/3 the price. Australia can supply the other 1/3. Qatar would like to share the market.
Putin has more tricks in is bag than Felix the Cat. Most of the economic sanctions have been lifted since they were hurting the EU much more than Russia. The EU leaders are forming closer – not more distant – relations with Putin and Russia than ever before, despite Obama’s ploy to break up their partnerships.
Vooch is right. Life has never been better in Russia for the Russian people. Putin has done an amazing job at raising their standard of life since Peristroika. That’s the reason his approval ratings are so high. IMO Russia has a stronger democracy that we do in America today. Look at how the Presidential elections are being rigged in America. You call that a democracy? The media is the prime culprit in a land where we used to pride ourselves on a ‘free press’. ha. Today it’s just as bad as Pravda was in 1965. I get most of my news today from American bloggers like Mish and foreign journalists. The US media is untrustworthy. Very very sad in a nation that used to brag about our freedoms. Those freedoms are eroding at an alarming pace. NDAA and The Patriotic Act anyone?
“At about 07:00 local time today [Sunday, August 7], the Russian occupying authorities…”
The Russian authorities in Russian Crimea.
Cold, hungry, thirsty, expensive, unemployed, tent dwelling Russian occupied Crimea.
“Cold, hungry, thirsty, expensive, unemployed, tent dwelling Russian occupied Crimea.”
Russian Crimea.
Jack, if they had any sense they’d dress up like Syrian refugees and sneak into Greece.
Hey Mish, wake up….it’s all ass-backwards CIA propaganda – Ukraine, led by neo-nazi coup, is gearing up to invade Crimea. Russian forces have been requested by Crimean govt. to defend against this aggression. Crimeans have shown by their vote that they would much rather be a traditional part of Russia than part of Washington’s game plan for the EU.
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