I like reading comments from readers.
Sometimes they are entertaining, sometimes educational. At times reader comments are very frustrating, especially when I fail to make a point that I believe was clear.
I especially appreciate comments simple in construct, but eloquent in expression causing me to think: Why didn’t I say that?
In regards to Economists Expect “Mount Everest” of Uncertainty to Clear Up by December here’s an eloquent comment from “Diogenes of Sinope”:
Pray tell, how can there be anything but uncertainty?
We haven’t witnessed any authentic price discovery in a decade or longer. Fantasy based accounting abounds while we await the first CEO to face Sarbanes-Oxley prosecution.
An “uncertainty index”, indeed. What’s next, effusive praise of The Maastricht Treaty due to it’s “stability clause” that has been so effective in preventing instability across Europe?
Background
Caroline Baum, one of my favorite economic writers (on Bloomberg for many years until they stopped using much of her material in favor of garbage), had an excellent column on uncertainty on MarketWatch in April: Uncertainty is a Fact of Life, So Get Used to It.
I discussed that chart and other uncertainty silliness in Uncertain Measures of Uncertainty.
My follow-up was Economists Expect “Mount Everest” of Uncertainty to Clear Up by December, to which “Diogenes of Sinope” replied …
“Pray tell, how can there be anything but uncertainty?”
Indeed.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The Quants may have let Schrodinger’s cat out of the box – but aren’t certain if it is alive or dead.
Mosts economists practice uncertainty; but now they are only confused
You confuse uncertainty with willful ignorance, with a sprinkle or two of stupidity.
Then again, neither pay the bills.
Therefore, all are either teachers at schools educating students about something that’s about 90% nonsensical, unemployed or differently employed college graduates, or shills who learned how to use bogus theories, all mathed up, to sell the point of view they’ve been hired to sell. The latter include the FOMC. Don’t call them on their bad theories. Call them on their craven servitude as flunkies for the upper 1%.
You should also be aware that if economists didn’t exist, someone would have to take their place as official prognosticators. They fill an emotional need and are useful when trying to sell your point of view. Astrologers once filled that role. The Oracle at Delphi also did, although that has been debunked as a fleece … a State sponsored official scam to separate the gullible from their cash in exchange tor ambiguous advice.
“Chaos is found in greatest abundance wherever order is being sought. It always defeats order, because it is better organized.”
― Terry Pratchett
“Chaos” is the word “experts” use when they can’t admit they are wrong.
And when the experts are REALLY mad they use “anarchy,”
Pray tell, how can there be anything but certainty when the passions of man have never changed, causing the business cycle and history to repeat like clockwork. Uncertainty is a convenient excuse for those that can’t see the hidden order in the chaos. The excuse has enabled brokerages to sell the random walk theory and asset allocation, which results in investors going no where, while the broker pockets the fee. It’s similar to those that claim someone is luckly, when in fact it’s usually someone’s preparation that allowed them to sieze the opportunity.
30 years ago, there were two jobs, meteorologist or economist that displayed a common characteristic: You could always be wrong and still keep your job,.. and you saw the same excuse come from both groups, “If we only had a way to crunch all the data….”. Welcome to the future, the more we advance, the less we know.
“If we only had a way to crunch all the data….”
It’s far more than that:
1. If we only had anything remotely like an adequate understanding of a phenomenally complex, chaotic system, we might be able to create models which actually represent it.
2. If we only had enough data taken at an adequate number of data points and, better yet, had data that wasn’t intentionally manipulated for political reasons, we’d have valid data to plug into our correct models.
per Lau Tzu…those who say do not know….those who know do not say…..therefore, be upon a boat in a tranquil lake, watch the daffodils arise, let the honey bees exercise their wings, and let us remember that none of all this matters. This is all Illusion. A farce. A comedy. If we are aware we recognize this in certainty.
NATO. Obummer, chaos, Hlldabeast, ECU, Dhraghti, Frau Merkel, Erdogan, Helicopter Ben, Lynch, Holder, ISIS, terrorism, war on drugs, Fast and furious….none of these is a tranquil lake,,,none of these watch a daffodil stretch towards the Sun. “Much ado about nothing…”
Look at history. Aeneas, Odesius, Cyclops, Sirens, A Streetcar Named Desire, oops, sorry, that was drama, look at Father Abe, Marx, Stalin, Hitler, Napoleon, Attila, all were wrong.
We need to step out of the Illusion. We need Patriots. We need repose–peace–awareness.
There is NO certainty. It is all Chaos. Cats or dead cats. We need to come back to “Neutral.” None of this matters. If we live in this world…we live in the illusion…if it does not matter…then perhaps we can live in world peace…. as in whirled peas…
5 million years ago the world was an ice ball….5 million years from now the Sun will expire…and we will become an ice ball…none of this smattering matters.
Enjoy life. Sing. Dance. Hop on your Harley and light-up that tire. Catch that elusive Cut-Throat. Jump out of a perfectly airworthy Airplane. Ask that woman (man) of your dreams out to dinner and enjoy an awesome bottle of wine. Roll in the hay…
None of this matters. Let it go.
Either “Be” or don’t “Be.”
But don’t let this trivial excuse of existence cause you to wonder why you chose to come here in the first place.
Let Chaos become your friend. See past the chaos. Go to peace inside…because none of this chaos matters.
Actually look at a daffodil. Look it in the eye. Breathe in its splendor.
Then go ALL into CASH, dump all your stocks, buy some gold, learn all you can about hydroponics, create a BOB ( Bug out Bag ) get some fire starters, a water machine, …and whoever wins the election…….just become part of nature, eat lettuce, drink fresh orange juice, and let the Devil have his (her) way.
WE came here unconscious….we will leave here unconscious. So. while we are currently “conscious” let’s do as “Bill” suggests: ” Eat, Drink, and be Merry.”
Much ado about nothing.
Do not be “uncertain.”
Do not be “confused.”
Now the “Cat” is out of the “Bag.”
None of this matters. “Matters.”
And if it does, I hope Trump kicks Hit-liary’s ass…
Then I’ll go back to smelling the Daffodils…
Catch one hard-driving trout, sip some Jack, and count the clouds as they slither across the horizon. Every Breath is free… no matter how hard the climate-control freaks says to the contrary. Breathe in…Breathe out… and when death knocks on your door look it in the eye and say: ” I lived it for all it’s worth, and you can be hanged.”
And your progeny will thank you for having invested in all that Gold. Your eulogy will be pompous. But you won’t care because you will be “unconscious.”
Have a great day. Enjoy it as tho it were your last. Screw the Cats.
BTW: tho I “Say” I really don’t “Know.”
I would summarize your thoughts as “go with the flow”. However, one must know when the waves are coming and which way the winds blowing to prevent being smashed by the rouge wave, or at a minimum spinning your wheels going against the tide.
Your statement, “Then go ALL into CASH, dump all your stocks, buy some gold”, is a perfect example. What if a desperately broke govt bails-in your cash and confiscates your gold, and stocks become the new safe haven, as soveriegn defaults go viral with a rising US Dollar? Everything is cyclical and fractal. Learn it, and the ride will be smoother.
Ed, I gave Jack a ride home from work today. As I sit here, reading Mish, reading the comments (which are always enlightening), mano a mano with Jack, I must agree with at least most of what you’ve written. Bravo.
Look, economists are very methodical people. They were trained that way. They were taught that the economy has rules that are supposed to be adhered like rules in a football game. We are supposed to have impartial and honest referees that apply the rules for the benefit of the game. Imagine if a football referee allowed one team to have 5 downs and the other team only 3? Or imagine if one team was penalized 15 yards for an off-sides offense while the other team lost only 5 yards? Or if one team was losing by a 9 points with a minute left on the clock, so an extra quarter was added to the game. You could guess what the outcome would be.
Well, look at all the rules of economics have been violated in the last 10-15 years to favor one class over another. You don’t think that would have consequences? After awhile people catch on and get tired of being treated like ATM machines for the ones who rigged the game.
The problem with economists is that the majority of them have complicit in rigging the game, either by act or omission.
And when rules in one game are ignored the other side begans to ignore the rules in competing games.
At that point anarchy rules.
Very sad.
Economists are not high priests living in ivory towers….even if they present themselves that way. Most are like everyone else….they have a job, they work for somebody and they answer to that entity, not you or me. THEY HAVE AN AGENDA, besides having an indoctrination implanted by “higher education” that has been largely taken over by ideological economic gurus….the kind that presidents call upon to “explain” and justify their actions.
Everyone is selling something. If we could only embrace that notion and thereby attach the proper value on their advise and enlightenment they wish to provide.
I agree with your premise, Mad.
Herein lies the problem.
By the very nature of their area of study economists are employed at the behest of BIG MONEY which favors the current status quo. And you are correct. People obey those who pay them. Otherwise they would lead very uncertain lives and have a difficult time feeding their families. Financial security is an utmost priority for most people. And they will compromise their beliefs and mores to attain it. The Freedom Bell does not ring in the American workplace. No, not even in a University setting, as much as the liberal handwringers want you to believe it. Everyone is programmed.
I remember when economists, who are generally conservative by nature, by and large supported conservative candidates in years gone by. The candidates who offered more promise for entreprenurial and free market values. Of course, this was decades ago when I could run like a deer. Times have changed. Now we have the lion’s share of economists backing a lying socialist criminal who’s violated the moral and legal rules of a purported civilized nation – and not only getting away with it – but being rewarded for it! Go figure?
The rules are being applied unequally. The elite who rule and govern and should be held to much higher standards are getting the wink and the nod while the common ordinary schmuck who struggles to pay the mortgage can’t catch a break. This flies in the face of what our Founding Fathers intended.
Morals and values are the glue that hold a society together. Not money. And we’ve been sliding down a slippery slope much too long.
Too much prosperity is not good for a nation. Eventually it takes down the host. World history has taught us that time and time again. Still, we humans never learn.
Not really sure about that.
“As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.” Albert Einstein
If one is certain that there is uncertainty …
The Irish, as usual, sum it up very well in what an Irishman advised me is “The Law of Virtual Uncertainty”, which states that “nothing can ever be definite until it is final.”
The Uncertainty Of Economics: Exploring The Dismal Science
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/03/071103.asp
Conclusion excerpt from that excellent article:
“…the number of testable variables is enormous due to the sheer size of the economy. As a result, there has been little success not only in predicting phenomena but also in proposing reasons for why observable things happen. The economy can’t be controlled like a math equation or a science experiment, and there are simply too many variables to test with any sort of reliability and verifiability…”
Quick, someone tell the central bank tower idiots trying to run the world with garbage theories and models based upon them.