We all try hard to make article headlines interesting. So do I. But I also like to be factual. That means, on average, my article titles are boring compared to others.

Consider this click bait title by Marketwatch: Yellen to say ‘ready’ for another rate hike in Jackson Hole.

The headline is purposely misleading. I expected the article to point to something Yellen did or said. Instead we see speculation by UBS converted to something concrete.

Yellen will speak Friday from the Fed’s summer retreat at 10 a.m. Eastern. The subject of her remarks is “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit.”

“We see Jackson Hole as the ‘ready’ warning and look for Chair Yellen to err on looking at the optimistic side” of the outlook,” said Drew Matus, senior U.S. economist at UBS.

To be fair, Matus thinks the U.S. central bank won’t issue the “set” warning until its September meeting policy statement and then “go” at the December meeting.

To Be Fair

By all means let’s be fair. The MarketWatch headline title is bullsheet.

Yellen may indeed signal for November or December, but if the data does not support a hike and the market doesn’t expect one the Fed is highly unlikely to hike.

There was nothing in the article other than speculation by UBS accompanied by a “to be fair” warning that admits the headline title is bullsheet.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock