Forget about what the oddsmakers say about Trump’s election chances. Instead, let’s focus on polls at the state and national level, and assess the election from a pragmatic point of view.
What would it take for Trump to close the gap? Is it possible?
Let’s start our analysis with a look at a National Poll Average of recent polls by Real Clear Politics.
Momentum Shifts Back to Trump
That chart represents national data. The election will be won or lost at the state level. However let’s dive further into national numbers a bit to see what is happening.
Biased Average of Polls
Some may question the LA Times poll. I sure do. But that 50% mark posted by NBC and Bloomberg for Hillary is equally nonsense as the following image shows.
Four-Way Race Results
Clinton’s real support level is 43-44%, not 50%.
Economist/YouGov
The undecideds and others represents a hefty 20%. Might they break for Trump? Are those voters coming mainly at the expense of Trump or Hillary?
IPOS/Reuters
The IPOS poll is even more interesting.
Check out support for Hillary among Democrats. Is it likely to get any better?
Where Trump Can Pick Up Votes
- 11% of Republicans say they will vote for someone other than Trump or Hillary
- 9% are unsure or refused to answer.
- 22% of Independents say they will vote for someone other than Trump or Hillary
- 12% of Independents are unsure or refused to answer.
That’s one heck of a lot of votes. And they are far more likely to break for Trump than for Hillary.
State Projections
Toss Up State Analysis
Of the eight toss up states, highlighted in yellow, Trump is currently behind in all but Missouri and Arizona.
However, I do expect Trump will win most or all of them. So let’s make that assumption and re-draw the map.
Winning most of the states currently marked toss up will not be good enough for Trump. In fact, winning all of them will not be enough.
In my projections earlier this year, in which I posted a roadmap for a Trump victory, I expected Trump to win either Virginia or Pennsylvania. That task now looks very difficult.
Even if Trump holds all of the above red states, he still needs to convert some other state from blue to red. Any state will do.
Pennsylvania is big enough to cover a loss of some small state like Nevada. New Mexico is a possible shot. So is Michigan. What about Minnesota?
On August 20, Donald Trump Said He Could Win Minnesota. He might have to. And if he did so, he would be the first Republican to carry the state since since Richard Nixon’s landslide victory in 1972.
“If I could win a state like Minnesota, the path is a whole different thing,” Trump told donors at a fundraiser event in Minneapolis.
Expect Race to Tighten Considerably
Trump’s curious focus on Minnesota should now be easy to understand in light of the above math. Trump knows what he has to do.
It’s an uphill battle, but not impossible. I expect a much closer election than the polling odds and mainstream media has you believe.
My rationale?
- Hillary has likely peaked with Democrats.
- Trump has not peaked with Republicans.
- Undecided Republicans are highly likely to break for Trump, and do so in size.
This election is not over yet.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Trump is just now sending a much more cohesive message. I think the Breitbart organization is really helping him. Expect Trump to leverage this through Drudge, through Pajamas media, and even blogs like Lew Rockwell, Mish, PKR, and anti war blogs. It’s a long list I think Breitbart understands. This alone could be Yuge!
Same from June 2015….Trump has got it.
Trump had a home run week last week.
If he keeps it up…
And the following will happen in the next 60 days.
Debates – Trump.
More Scandals – Hillary.
More leaked emails – Hillary.
More muslim terrorism – Trump
Obama’s Teflon wearing thin – Trump
Stocks crash – Trump
More Bill rapes coming out – Trump
Etc.
A few breaks and it is over for Hillary. Too many plates spinning…
I live in Georgia. I vote Libertarian each election. I plan to this year as well unless the Trump/Clinton match up is close. In that case I will vote Clinton.
I would like to see the two party system break down. Both are too old and set in their ways to govern well, mainly due to the self interests of the party blue bloods and embedded lobbyists.
However, Trump is not much more than an educated Palin. He is not someone that I would want to see in a significant role in any capacity.
Clinton on the other hand will give us another 8 years similar to the last 50. It is the lesser of the two evils.
“I would like to see the two party system break down.”
Then STOP VOTING FOR the party machine approved and favored candidates – that would be Hillary. If you don’t like Trump, don’t vote for him, but don’t keep playing the lesser of two evils game by voting for the other candidate. If you keep doing that, they have you trapped forever bouncing back and forth between two evils and you will never see the shared two party duopoly lose to some third alternative.
The party machines will never be reformed because the vetting of bought and paid for RINO and DINO candidates is one of their primary roles. The only path is to reject the PRODUCTS of those machines. Vote for the candidate the oligarchy DOES NOT want. Throw a wrench in it and force a re-boot.
Oh, and this is nothing new:
“Political parties exist to secure responsible government and to execute the will of the people. From these great tasks both of the old parties have turned aside. Instead of instruments to promote the general welfare, they have become the tools of corrupt interests which use them impartially to serve their selfish purposes. Behind the ostensible government sits enthroned an invisible government, owing no allegiance and acknowledging no responsibility to the people. To destroy this invisible government, to dissolve the unholy alliance between corrupt business and corrupt politics is the first task of the statesmanship of the day.” — *1912* platform of the Progressive Party, founded by former president Theodore Roosevelt
Like I said, I vote Libertarian every 4 years. However I do not see myself as an anarchist. If Georgia is too close to call and the electoral map is too close to call, I will be forced to go with Clinton. I posted mainly to offset the tone of Mish’s post that sounded like a number of us independents would in the end vote for Trump. There are more independents like me. Break the 2-party system but not the country.
“I will be forced to go with Clinton”
I’ve read that people who are mentally ill are not in control of their own actions. Is that what you mean by being “forced”, like someone with OCD is “forced” to check that their front door is locked three times before they leave the house?
You want change but vote for the same corrupt status quo…
You deserve everything coming to you.
“Clinton on the other hand will give us another 8 years similar to the last 50.”
That is NOT true. The presidents of the past 50 years have been been pretty much honest with the exception of Tricky Dickey and Obama, while both Clintons are about is corrupt as you can get. Why voters like corrupt politicians is a complete mystery to me. No need to detail the Clinton Crime Syndicate here, it is well documented and anyway there is not enough room for all of it here.
Headline from today: “Clinton campaign halfway to $1 billion fundraising goal”
Meaning $500 million worth of “already bought.”
Tim,
You! Libertarian? Come on if Hillary is elected the First and Second Amendments are toast. She’ll pack the court with Ginsberg and Kagan synchophants. As H.L. Mencken said. The people should get what they voted for and they should get it good and hard.
If Clinton is elected we will have 8 years of House investigations and DC gridlock. I imagine it will be similar to the other 8 years of a Clinton presidency.
I see no way for her to impact the 1st and 2nd Amendments. The House will block everything.
It will just have us all kick the can down the road for another 8 years.
The main good thing that Trump did for us all was to break one of the 2 major parties. I fully expected a Bush/Clinton contest and without the Tea Party faction that is what we would have had. Now we just need the Occupy Wall street / Sanders faction to gain enough strength to break the Dems and maybe we make it to a true multi-party system.
Tim,
If Hillary sweeps and the House and Senate are taken in her wake. There will be no investigations for at least the first two years. Legislation will be rammed down our throats alla Affordable Care Act and the Supreme Court will be a series of liberal decisions for at least the next 20 years.
KTK – If the House flips, this will have been a multi-generational blowout election and none of this thread matters. If you think the election will wind up being close (and even not so close), then the House will wind up safe and maintain gridlock.
All I said is that I will vote Clinton if it is too close to call else I will go my Libertarian way.
Tim, you make no sense. But then most establishment shills don’t make any sense.
“It is the lesser of the two evils.”
First of all, there is no such thing as the lesser of two evils… it is false/flawed reasoning. You are making a subjective choice and then pretending that the choice is sanctioned by popular opinion. It is not.
Second, an HRC presidency would – objectively – be FAR worse for the country. Congress can/will provide a counter-balance/foil to a Trump administration, but NO such balance would exist for an HRC administration… Congress would roll-over and allow HRC to run the country just as she did the Clinton Foundation… crooked, corrupt & without even the pretense of ethical standards.
Claiming Hillary is the lesser of two evils is raw, unadulterated naivite & cognitive dissonance.
Typical worthless libertarian. Waste of life.
Unless there are some major differences between Dems and Reps in their tendencies to buy presidential campaign t-shirts on Amazon, the many pro-Trump t-shirts being sold on Amazon have large numbers of positive reviews, the few anti-Trump t-shirts have no reviews, “Hillary for Prison 2016” t-shirts have many positive reviews, and the few pro-Hillary have no reviews.
Moreover if you search trump tea shirts tons of trump favorable tea shirts come up but if you search Clinton tea shirts or Hillary tea shirts anti Hillary vastly predominates. No money in HRC election gear? Weird.
Trump!
Trump!
Trump!
Unfavorables. … unless there is a shift in the unfavorable opinions, then there is no reason to believe the undecideds will choose Trump.
Trump has shown no ability to improve favorability attitudes, the best indicator of undecided voters.
GOP support has peaked — the RNC and an ever-increasing number of Republican officeholders have begun to disassociate from Trump. The undecided listen to such opinion leaders. The undecided don’t know the term RINO , let alone apply it to the senators , representatives and governors whom they’ve been voting for. If they hear from a local Republican that it is OK to split the ticket, then many will. More, the RNC controls money distribution to local candidates. If it conditions financial support on distance from Trump — as it reportedly is considering doing– then the run for distance from Trump will accelerate, pushing the middle-of-the-road undecided GOP voters to a vote of conscience.
Early voting– this tightening that Mish forecasts is going to have to show itself rather soon, because the voting will start far sooner than Election Day.
Tightening in November might happen , but after HRC already has won in October.
Wondering where you are going with that “vote of conscience”. The Clintons do not have a conscience. There is no evidence of it whatsoever.
I’m rarely undecided. In this one, I am. I may break for Trump because of concerns about the makeup of the Supreme Court, but both parties’ candidates terrify me. Everybody wants to talk about breaking the two-party system. Right, because voting for Ross Perot gave us Bill “let’s launch cruise missiles at aspirin factories in Sudan to distract from my affair” Clinton. What matters is who is sworn into office in January. You don’t go into McDonald’s an order a ribeye steak. Steak isn’t on the menu. It really does come down to the “lesser of two evils.” Or I can lodge my protest vote with Gary Johnson or this Evan McMullin guy if he manages to make it on a ballot. But I care about who is on the Supreme Court, which means I probably should vote for Trump instead of enabling a Clinton win. Immediately afterward I’ll vomit.
First of all, the polls make no sense and appear to be not totally honest. Too much emphasis on polling on the coasts, but little in the heartland. Also, I suspect that there are just too many people who are playing this election close to the vest. Secondly, there has never been a time before that both health and hacked documents could play such a big role. Third, the debates are going to be all important, more so than in Nixon/JFK. Grab the popcorn, grab a few brews and enjoy the spectacle,
BULL!
There is an unlimited source of funds to insure that Hillary is elected. These funds come from both traditional Democratic sources and REPUBLICAN SOURCES!
Even if Hillary is arrested and jailed, there is no way Trump will be sworn in as President.
The smart way to play this election is to assume that Hillary {No Matter How Much You Hate Her} will be the next POTUS!
I hate her but realize that she will be the next POTUS.
Yes billionaire George Soros is her number one campaign donor. Evil supporting evil.
It may come down to the national debates. Trump has to show the people, who think he’s an idiot, that he isn’t. If he can do that, it’s over for Hillary – and nuclear war may be averted.
The problem is he is nothing more than a misogynistic idiot, but maybe your good friend Roger Ailes, can help him with the female vote. Really, I think you guys, Mish included, have been drinking too much of that fracked up water and you have lost all sense!
Over the years I’ve learned this about politics: the government is shitty because the people are shitty.
So far, Mish and Scott Adams (Dilbert) are the two smart people out there that got the Trump nomination right. Both previously predicted Trump presidency but are now on the fence. That said, I sense that they will once again come out for Trump by end of September.
Agreed.
HRC’s poll numbers top-out in the mid-30’s, not 40’s… the add’l 8-10% is provided by crooked polling techniques and HEAVY pollster/media bias…
No way in hell HRC polls in the 40’s… you can spend a week on the street, meeting thousands of people, and not find even 20% HRC voters. That’s a fact. Go ahead and try it.
If Clinton is indeed sick then standing for over an hour being questioned in front of the cameras will tell the tale. If we see some radical departure from historical debate format then we will know. America has traveled so far down the socialist path in the last 30 years under both democrats and republicans, the election will make little difference in the long run.
There are some problems with using polling data. The companies behind the polls support Hillary, so are the results basised to reflect their narrative. The polls only consider likely voters. Trump’s primary results should cast suspicion on this factor. Trumps primary vote count was above the norm for a Republican. The attendence at campaign rallies is vastly different. Look at the crowds at Trump rallies vs Hillary rallies. Hillary is campaigning at a much slower pace than Trump. As Trump would say “Hillary has low energy”
Polls likely under predict trump support, mostly they call land lines, not cell…
Also, if maybe ashamed to support trump out loud because racism, maybe different in voting booth.
Debates… Hillary might just do one, saying he’s too mean… And certainly will schedule during major sporting events… Trump must do well in debates to win.
Landlines tend to skew toward older voters, which would overrepresent Trump supporters, not underrepresent them.
Come on, folks. We’re in the 3rd inning of a 9 inning game. Good God. Be patient. Do you have any inkling of how much hidden dirt is out there on Hillary just waiting to get uncovered? Do you really think those 33,000 deleted emails are gone forever? Don’t be naïve. If you believe in self-driving cars you have to believe in cyber interception. While many foreign interests have dumped boatloads of cash into Hillary’s purse – there are an equal number of foreign interests who hate the ground she walks on.
Trump is the kind of guy who hangs back and catches you at the wire. NEVER count him out. Those of you who are naysayers will be singing a different tune by October 25th. And you can hold me to that forecast. This one is easy. If I can find a legal political betting board giving Hillary greater than 5 to 1 odds I’m all in. I hope she gains in the polls for the next couple weeks. Trump will close that gap in 2 weeks given the right news print. The mainstream media can bury only so much. Wait until the ‘in your face’ headlines break overseas and start filtering across the Atlantic and Pacific. Headlines that can’t be denied.
This will go down as the most entertaining and the biggest comeback US Presidential election in US history.
NY (29 electoral college votes) and NJ (14) are both winnable by Il Ducé.
Upstate NY, Staten Island, & Long Island will vote 60:40 for Ducé
Westchester, Rockland, Queens, & Brooklyn will split
only Manhattan & The Bronx will strongly support Crooked
NJ will have a similar result.
Crooked can not win without the 43 EC votes of NY/NJ
I’am Canadian and like Trump, think Clinton will have a lot exposed next couple of months.
I think mish’s last line of this is not over, should have been the entire content of this post
Trump should adopt a gold standard as part of his platform.
The Trump campaign is already releasing trial balloons RE: gold standard.
But why don’t they make a bigger issue of the re-instatement of Glass-Steagall??
Force HRC to choose sides on these economic/Wall St. issues… she’ll prevaricate, and then she’ll lose in a landslide. She is incapable of offering straight answers, so PUT HER ON THE SPOT per these issues!!!!
I live in Minnesota, and I gotta say I highly doubt Trump can win here. But I do believe he’ll take Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio and quite possibly Michigan, Colorado and Virginia. Breitbart is doing some real good on his campaign, and a couple of debate victories will put him in the White House. Remember, Wisconsin and Michigan have Repub governors.
One more thought.. Assange has promised new releases, and the NSA has been hacked, which also might contain interesting things. The world is an unstable place as well. Plenty of time. The first debate will be real important, and will be viewed by a billion people worldwide.
In the 1980 election between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter, polls had Carter leading Reagan up until the last moment. Polls were biased back then too, and Big Money was squarely for Carter. Reagan was the anti-establishment candidate. Well, as everyone knows, Reagan won by a landslide.
The media and polling agencies are powerful tools for the establishment. They engage in a form of gaslighting, that attempts to win over undecideds and discourage Republicans from voting by creating the illusion that most are for Hillary. It didn’t work back in 1980, it didn’t work with Brexit and it will not work this November.
I laughed when I read in today’s news that economists say by a 4 to 1 margin that Clinton would manage the economy better than Trump.
If that doesn’t tell you that the large majority of economists are in the back pockets of big business – what would?
Trump is correct. The system is rigged.
The most recent Gallup reports Trump at 63% unfavorable, vs. 54% unfavorable for HRC. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx?g_source=ELECTION_2016&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles#pcf-image) Given this, and assuming that the undecided voters follow this distribution, then the undecided should break for HRC, not Trump.
What is the basis for Mish’s belief that the undecided voters will break for Trump? The Gallup favorability ratings have been remarkably stable over time. What about the passage of more time favors Trump? Races do tend to narrow in general. But Mish’s post suggests that he believes that more than the baseline tightening will occur. No argument is offered in support of this proposition, however. Same with the Republicans. The NeverTrump Republicans are stable, and, if anything, strengthening as down ballot candidates dissociate from Trump in swing states.
I dread Trump; I dread Clinton.
What to do? sitting out is not an option
DB – bring the question down to “war”. Which one is pro-war and which one is anti-war? Which one might get you killed?
Hillary is coups (Honduras, Ukraine, Libya, Egypt) and attempted coups (Syria), saber-rattling Russia, calling Putin “Hitler”, building bases surrounding Russia (Poland, Romania, Latvia). She is a war-monger. Look at her record in Latin America and the involvement of the Clinton Foundation there.
https://www.thenation.com/article/a-voters-guide-to-hillary-clintons-policies-in-latin-america/
Look at the Democrats, a party of neocons:
https://consortiumnews.com/2016/06/08/democrats-are-now-the-aggressive-war-party/
And the article “The Bigger Nuclear Risk: Trump or Clinton?” spells out the neocon mindset of Hillary Clinton:
https://consortiumnews.com/2016/06/02/the-bigger-nuclear-risk-trump-or-clinton/
If you bring the question down to simply who might put you into World War III, I think you could see more clearly.
Simple…
Do you believe the US is currently on the “right track”?
Do you believe the TPP will benefit american workers & consumers?
Do you believe the US should invade/occupy/manipulate smaller, sovereign nations?
If you answered “no” to any of these, then you MUST vote AGAINST the status quo… i.e. vote for Trump and pray for the best…
Yeee-yah – No. Not that cut and dried. Trump may seem different but that’s because he’s not a professional politician. Yet. And it’s disturbing to put it mildly that he’s become the voice of niew facism, using his call for a moratorium on Muslim immigration to push their own separatist/supremacist agendas. No bueno.
Edit for clarity: some of Trump’s followers are using his call to push their own agendas
temporarily halting immigration from known/radicalized countries is not fascist, it’s common sense.
how many attacks/epidemics will the US have to suffer before we wise up?
islam is NOT compatible with western culture, period. if muslims could demonstrate any ability to assimilate, the story might be different… but they don’t, so we shouldn’t kid ourselves & put ourselves at-risk for the sake of political correctness. i lived in europe for six years & i’ve witnessed the disfunction b/t islam & western ideals… up close & personal.
so long as islam = adherence to sharia, then the US should seriously vet/block immigration from muslim countries. to do anything less is a form of cultural suicide, imo.
These are old threatened white men on this blog who are terrified that their way of life is ending. They know their world is rushing to its conclusion
Yes. Or highly trained applied mathematicians trying to avert the collapse of civilization. You decide.
If that were so, they would not be taken in by such a buffoon as Trump. Really, the two candidates are cut from the same bolt of cloth and will hang out together no matter who wins; face it, dude. they are all friends up in that high social stratosphere!
Do your own unrigged poll: type “Trump speech” in YouTube, then “Clinton speech”. Then look at the results and the numbers of visitors. Surprised?