Existing home sales fell a greater than expected 3.2% in July, to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.39 million. Sales were well below the Econoday consensus estimate of 5.52 million, and lower than the lowest guess in a range of 5.420 to 5.650 million. The median sale price declined as well. As is typically the case, the Econoday writer manages to spin the news as positive.
Highlights
Prices are coming down but sales aren’t going up, at least not in July. Sales of existing homes slowed to a 5.39 million annualized rate which is under low-end expectations and down 3.2 percent on the month. The year-on-year rate has been slowing and is suddenly under water at minus 1.6 percent.
The median price fell 1.4 percent to $244,100 with the year-on-year rate a little less respectable at plus 5.3 percent, a rate roughly consistent with this morning’s FHFA house price report where slowing is also the theme.
Single-family sales are not a plus in today’s report but they are compared to condo sales. Single-family home sales fell 2.0 percent to a 4.82 million rate with condo sales down a very sharp 12.3 percent to a 570,000 rate. Year-on-year, single-family home sales are in the negative column but not by much, at minus 0.8 percent vs an 8.1 percent decline for condos.
Weakness in sales is a plus at least for supply which is still very thin and a key factor holding down sales. Supply on the market rose to 2.13 million from 2.11 million in June with supply relative to sales at 4.7 months vs June’s 4.5 months.
Pending home sales have been weak which limits the surprise of today’s report. Yet today’s report does take some shine off yesterday’s sales surge for new homes. Still, lower prices together with higher supply are pluses for existing home sales ahead.
Allegedly, weaker sales is a plus for supply, and a plus in supply will lead to strength in sales.
Wow.
Despite the fact that pending home sales have been very weak, no economist expected this decline.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
make up your mind – your previous headline said just the opposite
Housing Bubble 2.0 meeting the reality of demographic cliff and wage cliff.
Saturation point is here.
Interesting. Bulls are saying this is not surprising because of low inventory. However, median new home sales price for July is down YOY. Inventory shortage ? Does not compute.
There is NO inventory shortage.
Whenever I have checked Zillow in the last several years (in the top 2 or 3 best economic areas in the country) at least half the listings are foreclosures!
Actually here in California they have stopped paying but the banks will not foreclose. That is to maintain the semblance of a lack of inventory and keep prices high.
You’ve gotta hand it to them, by golly, they aren’t lacking for nerve!
Need to look at a chart…up 3% down 3% …doesn’t mean jack-sh*t
“Analysis” and “commentary” on nonsense like this is a waste of time and akin to the FED micromanaging rates…meaningless except those that need to sell newspapers, or “clicks”
If the barn never gets cleaned out the cattle end up wading through their own manure and can’t hardly move. This barn hasn’t been cleaned in a long time.
Mike, Redfin announced that existing home sales were down 11% earlier this week. What is up with that large difference?