Global uncertainty is on the rise, led by China and the UK.
In the US and Europe measures of uncertainly are on the decline. I gather this from a chart that ZeroHedge tweeted this morning.
Global Uncertainty
I asked ZeroHedge where the chart came from and he replied “In today’s Citi report from Willem Buiter”.
OK, but where did Buiter get the data?
Although the scales are different, the answer appears to be Economic Policy Uncertainty. The the patterns match precisely.
Economic Policy Uncertainty UK
I am not sure what Buiter said in this morning’s notes, but analyzing political uncertainty has entertainment value and little more.
Lagarde on Brexit
On July 7, I reported Lagarde Flip-Flops Again on Brexit, Warns of “Disastrous” Trump-Style Protectionism
Ahead of the vote on Brexit, IMF head Christine Lagarde warned of a prolonged period of uncertainty.
After the vote, Largarde said Brexit provided the EU a better opportunity for reform.
Whatever Happened to Brexit Armageddon?
On August 21, I commented Brexit: Worst Case Scenario for EU; Armageddon Promise Now Visible as Pack of Lies.
The UK appears to be doing quite fine despite the uncertainty.
And despite recently falling uncertainty in Europe, Marine Le Pen is rising in France, an anti-immigration candidate will likely be the next president in Austria, Matteo Renzi may resign if he does not get the referendum he wants, and Germany is fighting with Turkey.
It’s quite entertaining.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Yes, Mish, and your point is further underscored by the utter lack of confidence that I (and others) have in “consumer confidence” surveys, and their resulting charts.
As Gerald Celente would respond:
The US uncertainly level according to the chart is ridiculous. I have never seen such uncertainty as we head into an election that will likely result in one of 2 very different directions. The Donald direction “might” turn out not too bad but the Hildebeast will be certain disaster.
Always consider the source – Christine Lagarde, Yeppers.
Gerald.Celente has a button for that stuff. I think it automatically sounds with LaGuarde statements.
When have things ever been certain?
1984. Reagan was certain to be re-elected and the economy was certain to keep on improving.
“When have things ever been certain?”
What things?
“Longest Live Burial World Record Attempt.” — From a tombstone.
Before it even started, Martin Armstrong said that it was certainty, the Eurozone would fail.
So did hundreds of others
So far Eurozone is living by breathing and I am glad a 1973 member decided to leave, showing EU must adapt to survive. Outside large scale war, there is no reason it would implode. Nationalism does not mean return to the past and loss of ties established by citizens of different members themselves. It is like a family: you don’t choose it, can’t erase its existence and one appreciates much more some members than others. UK happens to be the exile one…