Global uncertainty is on the rise, led by China and the UK.
In the US and Europe measures of uncertainly are on the decline. I gather this from a chart that ZeroHedge tweeted this morning.
I asked ZeroHedge where the chart came from and he replied “In today’s Citi report from Willem Buiter”.
OK, but where did Buiter get the data?
Although the scales are different, the answer appears to be Economic Policy Uncertainty. The the patterns match precisely.
Economic Policy Uncertainty UK
I am not sure what Buiter said in this morning’s notes, but analyzing political uncertainty has entertainment value and little more.
Lagarde on Brexit
On July 7, I reported Lagarde Flip-Flops Again on Brexit, Warns of “Disastrous” Trump-Style Protectionism
Ahead of the vote on Brexit, IMF head Christine Lagarde warned of a prolonged period of uncertainty.
After the vote, Largarde said Brexit provided the EU a better opportunity for reform.
Whatever Happened to Brexit Armageddon?
On August 21, I commented Brexit: Worst Case Scenario for EU; Armageddon Promise Now Visible as Pack of Lies.
The UK appears to be doing quite fine despite the uncertainty.
And despite recently falling uncertainty in Europe, Marine Le Pen is rising in France, an anti-immigration candidate will likely be the next president in Austria, Matteo Renzi may resign if he does not get the referendum he wants, and Germany is fighting with Turkey.
It’s quite entertaining.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock