Yellen’s speech today in Jackson Hole shows a Fed that appears desperate to hike rates. Why?

Here are the last four quarters of GDP.

  • 3rd Quarter 2015: 2.0%
  • 4th Quarter 2015: 0.9%
  • 1st Quarter 2016: 0.8%
  • 2nd Quarter 2016: 1.1%

It’s highly unlikely the Fed believes 1% is the new normal for robust growth. So why is it so desperate to hike rates?

No Confidence

Despite wanting the hike, a Yellen slide from the Jackson Hole symposium shows the Fed has little confidence that it will hike.


For details please see Yellen Discusses “Tools”: She’s 70% Confident That Rates will Be between 0 and 4.5% in 2018.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock