German chancellor Angela Merkel once again acts like she is in charge of Brexit negotiations. Her majesty needs another quick reminder about who is in charge, and what’s at stake.
Bloomberg reports Germany Warns U.K. That Brexit Talks Will Be Very Difficult.
German Deputy Foreign Minister Michael Roth warned that the U.K.’s negotiations to leave the European Union “will be very difficult” and that Britain won’t be allowed to “cherry pick” the best that the bloc has to offer.
“If the British want full market access but want to limit the access of workers from Germany, France or Poland, they will find there is no a la carte cooperation in this direction,” Roth, the government minister responsible for European affairs, said at a Berlin event Saturday. “We’ve told the British they can’t expect to pick the best aspects of the EU and leave matters at that.”
“People will accept Europe only if it holds out the promise of prosperity,” Merkel told reporters on Friday in Warsaw. “Britain’s exit isn’t just some event, but rather a deep watershed in the history of European Union integration.”
Brexit was indeed a “watershed moment”, and her highness better look straight into the mirror to find see the single person most responsible.
Merkel’s inane refugee policy without a doubt was the final catalyst that drove the Brexit vote.
UK Should Up the Ante
Merkel’s statement is such an obvious bluff, it’s hard know whether the appropriate response is to go “all in” or simply to up the ante by lowering tax rates again.
Another appropriate response would be for UK prime minister Theresa May to point a finger at Merkel and make a statement to the effect “who is this clown?”
Alternatively, May could say something like, “I see Merkel does not care about German exports to the UK”.
Either statement would set the appropriate tone for Brexit discussion while simultaneously putting Merkel in her place.
Merkel has caved in to Turkey time and time again. She will cave into Theresa May as well. All May has to do is apply the appropriate pressure.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Yancey Ward said:
I still maintain that all Brexit activities after the vote are a charade to fool the voters. If May were really serious, she would have demanded Parliament take a vote to implement. I will make a prediction- May goes ahead without the vote in Parliament, the Remain politicos who feel safe enough to bring court cases will eventually find a court 3 years from now that rules Parliament must act. At that time, the PM will take the temperature of the electorate and run another referendum as “guidance” for what Parliament must do. The hope for the government is that the Brexit voters can be overcome. If it looks like a second referendum is going to lose, then, and only then, does it get interesting.
“If May were really serious, she would have demanded Parliament take a vote to implement.”
A majority in Parliament is against Brexit and her lawyers tell her there is no doubt that she has complete legal authority to do what she’s doing. Even then, IMO, it will be too long before they cut the chains to a doomed ship.
Correct. May is doing the right thing, and no court is going to unscramble this omelet 3 years down the line. Unless it wants to see the courthouse burned to the ground….
Everybody is wrong, at least to some extent. The Brits have all the advantages in the negotiations. While I don’t know all the issues, or most for that matter, I do believe that the EU need the Brits more than the Brits need the EU. To that end, the Brits have a cornucopia of advantages walking to the negotiation table.
The EU needs money, political support, getting the other ‘exiters’ to settle down, and an effort at the Brit state level to ‘keep the secret’, which is the Eurozone will cease to exist once the ECB stops monetizing everything in sight and managing interest rates to artificially low levels. This doesn’t even get into any whipsaws where they can, for example, softly assist any country, such as Turkey, that is hustling the EU for other reasons. Thank God they didn’t go with the Euro.
Providing the Brits are organized and have their ducks lined up properly, the only thing they would have to disagree on internally is how badly they want to humiliate the EU negotiators. Being a Brit negotiator in this event is the opportunity of a lifetime and any negotiator worth their salt should be begging to be on the team. Hopefully the Brits don’t screw it up and treat it as a 50-50 situation. Rather, the Brits should be looking at it as ‘We own you and you need to pay us for out continued support, or else we will show the world what’s behind the curtain for starters. It gets worse for you from there.”
But, since government is involved, I’m skeptical the Brits will do much of anything constructive. They come across as still asking for permission.
Peter C said:
You are correct of course. However you have failed to realise that with the sole exceptions of Margaret Thatcher and Nigel Farage, and perhaps one or two more, the entirety of the UK political class and especially the senior civil service believe that as an ex-imperial power commanding an empire of unmatched evil, far worse than anything the USSR ever was, we are beholden to bend over backwards and give in to any demands any foreign power demands. Indeed we should go so far as to point out where they could demand even more should they not think of it themselves.
Shameful I know, but that is the modern Britain I am ashamed to be a citizen of.
This may all be true, but in the real world people still need to pay bills, raise kids, and go to work. The politicians may be corrupt and the oligarchy be the ones in actual control, but the people are in majority and have the power if they choose to exercise it. All of the nations have dirty hands for one reason or another. Some reasons involve support of the oligarchy. Some reasons are pretty good.
I may be a dreamer, but if you can kick the oligarchy in the nuts once in a while, I’m OK with it. Right now, they need a lot of nut kicking as they appear to be better organized now than ever before.
Yancey Ward said:
That is the main reason she didn’t ask for Parliament’s approval- they don’t want to have to take a vote- it doesn’t matter if a majority supported Remain, they don’t want to have to be put in the position of actively defying voters. Had May asked them to vote, they would almost surely would have voted for Brexit despite their declarations otherwise. The solution then is simple- make it appear that the government is following the wishes of the voters. Have the PM announce she is going to invoke Article 50 in the future and look around for another scapegoat for not actually implementing the results of the referendum. A court somewhere will give cover. I don’t care that May has the authority act alone, all that is required is that she claim she doesn’t at the right time, perhaps 2-3 years from now. At that time, 3 years after the vote, she will claim that she needs new guidance from the electorate before Parliament is asked to vote- the hope will be a new referendum has a different result.
This really isn’t cynicism on my part- this is the reality that the government has a different goal than the Brexiters in the electorate. The government will stall and stall and stall until it can get the electorate to change its mind. That is how government works. To get what they want, the electorate will eventually have to all but threaten to hang them from lampposts.
Time will tell. I hope you’re wrong but this should be a great metaphor for the world and who really controls it. Right now the oligarchs – or upper 1% – seem to be in ascendancy. People are more sheeplike than ever and the trend for both is going in the wrong direction.
I think the movie dystopias in popular stories are more foreshadowing than fantasy. Only the details of actual day to day life in them are still up in the air. It will be interesting to see how EU migration and middle eastern regime change affect this eventuality. If you like trend following, this is where the dystopia will begin.
By ‘dystopia’ I mean the troubles transcend from a bad situation to an accepted way of life. Nobody thinks about improving things. It’s all normal. If things get worse, then accommodations are made to merge them into the status quo. Assimilation is a way of life. T
By that definition, the Eurozone is already in dystopia due to ECB deficit financing and rate management in order to perpetuate the Eurozone …which would be in the stages of failure now if the ECB and EU were not making accommodations via continual new ‘programs’ to keep the printing press running.
May is making good first impressions as a negotiator. The Brit as a whole … still up in the air.She seems to understand the EU will undermine her using all tools at their disposal. The most important tools owned by the EU involve disunity, dissent, and disloyalty from within England, itself. In fact, the only tool they have at this time is getting the Brits to bicker, hesitate, question, and quake in fear of the unknown.
May appears to know this and might be cutting off the EU at the knees by avoiding the places where they have strongholds within England subverting the English position. The EU will think up more ways to subvert the negotiations and make them go away if possible. May needs to let them waste resources and reveal more weakness, and them pull the ladder out from under them each time.
To Merkel, the UK says “Stuff it, you old Communist whore Merkel!”
It should not be that complicated for the UK. The UK is back to self-rule, and can stop paying taxes and dues to the EU anytime it chooses; and the sooner the UK stops sending money to Brussels, the better for UK finances. Self-rule also entitles the UK to select whomever it wants to admit into the UK to collect its dole. If the UK feels that lowering business taxes will increase UK prosperity, then the UK should indulge in that prerogative of self-rule. Otherwise, Trump may get the jump on the UK in lowering USA business taxes.
If Merkel wishes to retaliate, the UK should say game on: Give it your best shot, bitch; and then respond as cleverly as Russia and Putin did to the EU economic boycott and sanctions. In Germany, Merkel still has plenty of work to do in convincing her German subjects to admit more immigrants and make Germany into a more Islamic state. Merkel is also long overdue inflicting EU “economic prosperity” on Greece, Spain, Italy and southern Europe. Most likely, Merkel wants a prolonged, multi-year “theatrical conflict” with the UK as a distraction from her gross failures on immigration, 80 million Turks ready to join the welcome wagon, EU economic train wrecks in Greece et al., and bank insolvencies that could cascade and wipe out German bond holders. The UK should say, good riddance and promise its people to be fully out of the EU within one year. Brexit should not be allowed to be a propaganda item benefiting Merkel.
The UK has all the cards in this negotiation, just call Merkel’s bluff. If Merkel threatens a trade war, she will be out of office within days. That would be catastrophic for German industry.
We have been trying for years to “read their minds”, and get some insight into what they are really thinking. We could hash this out for years to come, but let’s just cut through the bullshit, and force each and every one of these EU idiots into submitting to a colonoscopy and publishing the results. Ahhhh Transparency!!!!
When people do exactly as you demand, it’s habit forming. Up till now Europe has been Germany’s beck and call girl. It’s going to take time to make the adjustment. Growing up is hard to do.
Funny that the EU listens to Merkel given the last 100+ year track record of German leaders.
Hopefully, the UK doesn’t match up it’s present supply of Neville Chamberlains.
It appears that Merkel is pushing a 10-ton mouth with a 2 HP brain. Someone had better take her aside and tell her to shut the F up before the German unemployment rate jumps to 15% overnight and the Germans have to get the wheel barrows out again to transport their euros to the supermarket to buy a loaf of bread.
She must be as stupid as dog squeeze. Seriously.
It’s why she’s letting the migrants in. You obey me or you will get no protection from “my government”.
She’s Adolf minus the mustache and Jackboots.
If the UK is no longer in the EU, why wouldn’t they be the same as every other country that is not in the EU? Britain can just tell the EU nannycrats to go stuff it, they are their own sovereign nation again.
If Theresa May is like Margaret Thatcher, then this would get interesting and she should be able to show EU its place. I am in Wait and Watch mode as you never know with politicians.
What annoys me to the edge is that she trumps around Europe like she is the only leader to speak for our continent and its people. Who the h*ll she thinks she is?
And no wonder she is demanding co-operation and shared responsibility…another 300K social shoppers expected to arrive this year alone.
Rufus T Firefly said:
About time somebody put the English in their place.
Nah, they do that better by themselves…obviously.
The cherry pickers are streaming into EU by the hundreds of thousands by invitation, so I guess her words are German humour? I don’t get it, or it is sick and twisted.
UK with external debt to GDP of 430%(look treasury report 2011 warning) bubble in real estate market, and pretending stable currency can really stand against Merkel. Come on Mish take a look at numbers. I just moved out of UK in continental Europe because of false jobs places creation and outrages cost of live expenses. False available jobs are created by private recruiting companies advertising same open vacancy by changing title and hacking content to attract more clients so 10 recruitment agencies can vacant same job this is count by government as 10 jobs offer instead of 1. Good numbers employment is basically constituent of low paid jobs restaurants part time employment who are count as full time employee by dont receive enough working hours per week ti pay the bills. This sector is the only one to work due to enormous money put in circulation, since 2008.
Germans don’t need to export premium product to country in exchange for crap currency.
Merkel is the de facto leader of Europe and she is only expressing the sentiment across the EU.
The Brexiters and the minions just need to accept this fact: We Europeans do not want the UK in the EU and we want that is treated like any other country outside the EU.
Others should shut up and do not mess in ours problems. Soon or later, you outside the EU will understand what means when we say: shut up and go back to your own hole and sole yours own problems.
Kind Regards from the EU.
I’m european citizen too, and completely i agree with you. UK is toad full of air,
because of its real estate bubble.
Britain is and always has been more independent and self-willed than the core European political mindset.
Europe is over-managed. Uniformity is everywhere. Local cheeses are mere brand names, traditional dress is for the tourists. City paving from Madrid to Luxembourg to Edinburgh uses the same look of pale grey cut granite. It feels like counties in a single country.
Society is mainly an open and multi-cultural but European politicians seem more and more isolated – like a cultural bubble. Everything has globalised yet politicians have veered off, shutting themselves away to dictate values, mandate tolerance and decide what’s good for the citizens.
It shouldn’t surprise seeing political utterances and actions making sense only when imagining a plethora of institutionalized bureaucrats filtering and adjusting inputs to deliver executive summaries to the leaders.
It’s highly likely that Europe will be caught unawares by the forthcoming financial and monetary ‘cyclical change’. There are limits to tax and spend, to competitive tourism, to offshoring and outsourcing.
When the can of short term initiatives can’t be kicked any further, when the population are all either rat racers or welfare recipients and when the cycle finally turns. What then? Will they have enough power left to do something drastic or will the ‘populist’ solutions come to the rescue?
Britain should run like hell.
Doesn’t sound like bluffing to me. I think she is deadly serious and the glib self righteous comments above indicate to me that the Brexiteers just don’t get it. Time will tell…
Her words are an insult , no less .
Who is Merkel ? She is not EU , nor is Germany , she cannot even pretend to represent the block .
A renegotiation of status is just that , all is placed on the table and either follows pre-existing formats of extra EU accords with some minor adjustments , or a new set is drawn up , extending those that exist, where agreement exists . It is not THAT hard , it is awkward and needs to take place in a manner which is least disruptive to all , in a manner which allows both to adapt to the new framework .
Yet if I walk into a room , and the ‘chief negotiator’s ‘ first words to me are ” Now , we aren’t going to agree to allowing you to take advantage of us ” , I would be telling him/her ” You are some sick f*** who does not know how to take a sincere and open stance , instead of discussing you spend your time making insinuations against my character , go and screw with someone else’s mind , preferably your own ” .
In fact after that I personally would be much more blunt . I would sign Article 50 and tell the ‘chief negotiator’ ” You now have two years to renegotiate your positions with us , you know where my office is , goodbye ” .
As a Brit , which I assume you are , doesn’t it embarrass you to have your would be ‘substitute’ mock your integrity so as to attempt to underline her own importance ? Diplomatically , it is not a friendly gesture , quite the opposite , but then as self anointed Queen of EU , she maybe hasn’t quite accepted yet that a country of hers is leaving without first asking her permission.
However then , EU has this problem called maturity , or lack of , and the reason is simple for that , it doesn’t actually ‘exist’ , it just keeps trying to , and at the cost of its member states, who it constantly vies with for recognition and attention.
in the last 15 months, I’ ve been in Germany & Austria for slightly Less than 1/2 The time. I can State with certainty that refugees are increasingly getting jobs and working. One sees them during morning rush hour hustling to work. My rough guess is 1/3 of refugees will lead productive lives, 1/3 get kicked back to their own country, 1/3 will never be fully productive. German Authories are becoming rather strict with the refugees. I believe in 3-6 months you’ll start reading sob stories about the ones getting kicked back to their home country.
Without agreement from the migrants home nation, that does not happen.
Turkey returns – very limited.
Syria – dream on.
Afghanistan, Iraq – dream on.
The only countries taking a modicum of forced returns are a couple N. African countries heavily bribed with ‘infrastructure’ loans.
And even then, migrants just dissapear in EU. That is right, hundreds of thousands, and they head for countries which cannot track or will not extradite them.
Germany is Europe’s backdoor, that then dumps on the rest of Europe, in the hope of being asked to manage it all.
EU is a sob story.
Holding a May-Merkel mud wrestling event might just be the stimulus Europe needs. Think of the merchandising; pay per view, action figures, “genuine” mud used in the match, and the bathing suits each contestant wore. Juncker can be the announcer as long as he doesn’t slur his speech, and Nigel Farage can be the color commentator. Whose to say a fight won’t break out in the broadcast booth as well?!
Mish, I think you are underestimating the ability of EU apparatchiks to punish someone, even if it will cost them dearly, they have proven that in Greece multiple times already.
For German elites this may also be a perfect opportunity to undercut whatever is left of high standard of living for wage workers, some salaried positions may also see cuts. And all because “evil” brexiters got their way. After all, when you review actions of German elites, that is what they have been doing since early 2000’s