The 2015 Spanish national elections ended in a deadlock with no one able to form a majority. A second round of elections was held on June 26. Voter turnout was a lowest in history 66.5%.
Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party (PP) was expected to lose seats. Instead PP picked up seats, but still not enough to for a majority except in a three-way coalition or scenarios involving abstentions.
Rajoy makes his case before Parliament today.
Bloomberg reports Rajoy Seeks Support to Avert Spain’s Third Election in a Year.
Caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will ask the Spanish Parliament to back him for a second term on Tuesday, as he seeks to end an eight-month political impasse.
Rajoy has secured support from the liberals of Ciudadanos and a lone nationalist lawmaker from the Canary Islands, giving him 170 votes in the 350-seat chamber. But with all the other party leaders opposed to Rajoy’s candidacy, the incumbent is set for defeat unless the grandees within the Socialist Party can persuade its leader, Pedro Sanchez, to back down at the last minute. Rajoy needs a majority to get through when the debate concludes on Wednesday. If he loses, a plurality will suffice at a second ballot on Friday.
If he fails this week, he has another two months to rustle up the votes before King Felipe has to call a third election.
“The important thing in this occasion is that the countdown is being triggered,” said Antonio Barroso, a London-based political analyst at Teneo Intelligence in London. “It’s unlikely that Rajoy manages to win the vote.”
Electoral Math
Rajoy will have a chance to form a government. If he fails, the socialists (PSOE) will have a chance, then Podemos (United We Can). It’s not accurate to say Rajoy has two months to pull this together.
Rajoy could step down, and that would make a “grand coalition” more likely, but politicians seldom step aside.
Even if Rajoy somehow manages to pull together a 3-way coalition, it’s not likely to be stable.
If Rajoy fails, the most likely outcome is new elections. No other coalitions seem possible.
In a sense, there may be no winning position for anyone. Brussels will be breathing down the neck of whoever wins, demanding more tax hikes and spending cuts, exactly the opposite of what PSOE and Podemos want.
It is conceivable PSOE abstains, letting Rajoy have his hollow victory.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Under the current laws, if Rajoy fails this week, the next elections will be held on December 25th, Christmas Day. The socialists are trying to change the laws to allow flexibility and blame the PP for setting the vote this week in order to create this specific timetable that would make a third round of elections less favorable by the public. We’ll know soon enough…
A slightly prophetic video from 2012
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDSBfrH79_E
Even last year’s was just before Christmas, video from 2015
Thanks for your blogs on foreign politics, Mish. If not for you I wouldn’t know what the heck was going on across the ponds.
One thing I’ve learned gives me a warm feeling inside. Foreign politics and governments are as screwed up and dyfunctional as ours in America.
Since misery loves company that makes me happy.
Egomaniac Rajoy is certainly not stepping down, and even if he managed to gather a majority, his tenure would be precarious. Problem is, if PSOE somehow supports Rajoy, then delirious freaky marxist Podemos will be the main opposition party, and century-old PSOE will be doomed.
“…more tax hikes and spending cuts, exactly the opposite of what PSOE and Podemos want”
You must be joking. PSOE and Podemos just *love* tax hikes. What political party in Europe doesn’t?
I meant spending and benefit cuts
Maybe it would be in Spain’s best interest to have as many rounds of election so they DON’T have to comply with budget limits. Maybe by that time the EU will have fallen apart and Spain will be able to control its own destiny with German approval.
That is what some are thinking . The caretaker government cannot do much at all , it cannot chart new spending, budgets , change taxes etc. If it goes to new elections then no government until February at least , even if there is a government though , it is going to be very hard for Brussels to know who to deal with , very tedious , even impossible ,to pass anything related into law . Portugal is somewhere along that path now , having reversed tighter fiscal and spending measures , though Brussels has not directly confronted the country yet . In reality there is little EU can openly do without looking dictatorial , I think it will try to punish these countries and run them into the ground indirectly by taking away any margin for financial manoeuvre, something that might lead to a response by a majority government, but will likely now only further the chaos given how fractioned politics currently is .