Hillary Clinton’s approval rating has plunged in the past few weeks to an all-time low.

56% have an unfavorable opinion of Hillary and only 41% have a favorable opinion.

Among registered voters, 59% hold an unfavorable opinion. That’s neck-and-neck with Trump at 60%.

Approval Ratings

The Washington Post reports A record number of Americans now dislike Hillary Clinton.

Hillary Clinton hit her stride after the Democratic National Convention, riding to a double-digit lead over Donald Trump in some national and swing-state polls — her highest of the year. As of today, though, Americans’ views of her just hit a record low.

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows 41 percent of Americans have a favorable impression of Clinton, while 56 percent have an unfavorable one. That’s the worst image Clinton has had in her quarter-century in national public life.

Interestingly, Clinton’s numbers appear to have dropped since that early August poll mostly in groups that have been very supportive of her:

  • Her favorable rating among women dropped from 54 percent to just 45 percent.
  • Among Hispanics, it went from 71 percent to 55 percent.
  • Among liberals, it went from 76 percent to 63 percent.

It’s not clear quite what might have caused Clinton to fall further than ever before. It’s likely that she simply got an extended bounce after the Democratic convention that has finally faded. It’s also possible that adverse headlines last week about the Clinton Foundation and thousands of newly discovered emails from the private email server Clinton used as secretary of state reinforced the reasons views of her had been worsening prior to the July conventions.

Clinton is keeping this race competitive with her own personal problems. And right now, the voters who will determine the next president don’t like her much more than they like Trump.

Not Satisfied

Shifting Odds

Nate Silver 2016-08-31

Nate Silver continues his silly projections. Supposedly Trump only had a 10.8% chance of winning on August 14.

Had the election been on August 30, I would have agreed. However, the election is on November 8.

Support for Hillary is dropping fast.

Winding Path

Nate Silver 2016-08-31A

I like that chart. It’s a great representation. And it looks ominous.

But mentally shift Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio to trump’s column. It will not nearly look as bad.

Those states are not totally independent. If one shifts they likely all will shift. And they have been shifting.

In fact, those states shifted enough for Silver to move Trump’s odds from 10.8% to 24.8% in just two weeks!

Silver presumes he knew what was happening (with 89% confidence) on August 14. Was he wrong then, or now, or both.

If you said both you are correct.

Silver’s Model Fatally Flawed

Attempts to project rapidly changing attitudes months in advance is ridiculous.

Silver’s model is fatally flawed for at least two reasons.

  • In the nomination process, Silver never incorporated the role of attitudes.
  • Silver now neglects the factor of time.

The further away from an event, the less confident one “should” be.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock