The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model for 3rd quarter dipped to 3.3% from 3.5% following economic reports this week.

The FRBNY Nowcast for the 3rd quarter remains at 2.8%, but drops slightly to 1.7% for the 4th quarter.

GDPNow Latest forecast: 3.3 percent — September 9, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.3 percent on September 9, down from 3.5 percent on September 2. The forecasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and real equipment investment growth declined from 3.5 percent to 3.4 percent and from 3.3 percent to 2.0 percent, respectively, on Tuesday after the motor vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.62 percentage points to 0.57 percentage points after this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Evolution Slowing Sinking

gdpnow-2016-09-09

FRBNY Nowcast September 9, 2016 Highlights

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.8% and 1.7% for 2016:Q3 and 2016:Q4, respectively.
  • News from this week’s data releases was small and mixed, having overall a negligible effect on the nowcast.
  • Lower than expected inventories and higher than expected job openings had a small positive effect on the nowcast, while negative news came from ISM nonmanufacturing.

3rd Quarter Nowcast

nowcast-2016-09-09a

4th Quarter Nowcast

nowcast-2016-09-09b

The Nowcast for 4th quarter GDP is slowly sinking as is the GDPNow forecast for 3rd quarter GDP.

For 3rd quarter, the models are showing signs of convergence.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock