The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model for 3rd quarter dipped to 3.3% from 3.5% following economic reports this week.
The FRBNY Nowcast for the 3rd quarter remains at 2.8%, but drops slightly to 1.7% for the 4th quarter.
GDPNow Latest forecast: 3.3 percent — September 9, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.3 percent on September 9, down from 3.5 percent on September 2. The forecasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and real equipment investment growth declined from 3.5 percent to 3.4 percent and from 3.3 percent to 2.0 percent, respectively, on Tuesday after the motor vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.62 percentage points to 0.57 percentage points after this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Evolution Slowing Sinking
FRBNY Nowcast September 9, 2016 Highlights
- The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.8% and 1.7% for 2016:Q3 and 2016:Q4, respectively.
- News from this week’s data releases was small and mixed, having overall a negligible effect on the nowcast.
- Lower than expected inventories and higher than expected job openings had a small positive effect on the nowcast, while negative news came from ISM nonmanufacturing.
3rd Quarter Nowcast
4th Quarter Nowcast
The Nowcast for 4th quarter GDP is slowly sinking as is the GDPNow forecast for 3rd quarter GDP.
For 3rd quarter, the models are showing signs of convergence.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I don’t see how they are going to get over the range of 1%. I think they have been adjusting adjustments for so long they have completely lost track of what they are adjusting.
The Fed is frantic. Its ejectipn time.
http://i.quoteaddicts.com/media/quotes/3/110830-funny-quotes-about-banking.jpg
Speaking of dipping … hot off the press from Factset:
…
• Earnings Growth: For Q3 2016, the estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -2.0%. If the index reports a decline in earnings for Q3, it will mark the first time the index has recorded six consecutive quarters of year-over year declines in earnings since FactSet began tracking the data in Q3 2008.
• Earnings Revisions: On June 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q3 2016 was 0.4%. Seven sectors have lower growth rates today (compared to June 30) due to downward revisions to earnings estimates, led by the Energy sector.
• Earnings Guidance: For Q3 2016, 78 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 35 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance.
https://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/earningsinsight/earningsinsight_9.9.16