The odds of a September rate hike collapsed to 15% following a speech by Fed governor Lael Brainard.

The Case to Tighten Policy Preemptively Is Less Compelling, said Brainard.

In separate speeches, two Fed presidents chimed in today with similar comments, effectively killing the odds of a September hike.


Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard on Monday urged “prudence in the removal of policy accommodation,” arguing that improvement in the labor market hasn’t had the desired effect on inflation.

Since the impact on inflation of further improvement in the labor market is likely to be moderate and gradual, “the case to tighten policy preemptively is less compelling,” she said according to the pre-released text of a speech for delivery at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

Ahead of Ms. Brainard’s speech, two regional Federal Reserve bank presidents said they see little urgency to take action at the meeting, which follows a slowdown in hiring in August.

While Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said Monday that economic conditions warrant a “serious discussion” about raising rates, he didn’t “feel that we are incurring the costs of patience that put a lot of urgency on the question of raising rates.” He declined to say when he would like to see the central bank next act.

His counterpart at the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, said in comments regarding the economy on CNBC early Monday that “there doesn’t appear to be [a] huge urgency to do anything, frankly.” Instead, “let’s get as much data as we can and let’s try to get our inflation back up.”

Not Gonna Do It, Wouldn’t Be Prudent

That sinks the idea barring exceptionally strong economic reports in the next week.

Mike “Mish” shedlock