It’s curious the New York Fed has a blackout on its GDP Model but the Atlanta Fed doesn’t.
Let’s take a look at the latest GDPNow and I will follow up with a guess at what the Nowcast would have been.
We find the latter next Friday.
GDPNow Latest forecast: 3.0 percent — September 15, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.0 percent on September 15, down from 3.3 percent on September 9. The forecast of third-quarter real consumer spending growth declined from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of third-quarter real government spending growth declined from 1.3 percent to 0.8 percent after Tuesday’s Monthly Treasury Statement from the U.S. Bureau of the Fiscal Service.
FRBNY Nowcast
The New York Fed reports …
- The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.8% and 1.7% for 2016:Q3 and 2016:Q4, respectively.
- News from this week’s data releases was small and mixed, having overall a negligible effect on the nowcast.
- Lower than expected inventories and higher than expected job openings had a small positive effect on the nowcast, while negative news came from ISM nonmanufacturing.
Mish Nowcast Guess
The economic reports have been generally miserable. But if we presume the drop in GDPNow flows through in a similar fashion to the Nowcast, we would have a Nowcast of something like 2.5% for third quarter and 1.5% for fourth quarter.
My guess is 2.4% and 1.4% respectively. Bear in mind reports next week will influence those numbers. However, we will be able to reconstruct my estimates from actuals thanks to Nowcast timeline details.
Related Economic Reports
- Retail Sales Unexpectedly Dip 0.3% – Weakness Not Contained to Autos
- PPI Synopsis: Final Demand for Goods -0.4%, Food Prices Down, Obamacare Up
- Collision Course: Motor Vehicle Production +0.5%, Motor Vehicle Sales -4.4% Year-Over-Year
- Real Hourly Earnings Decrease 0.1%, Real Weekly Earnings Drop 0.4%, Hooray!
- Good News For Inflationists: Medical Costs and Rent Surge; Mini-Stagflation Coming Up?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
So, are these stats sufficiently connected to reality to warrant attention?
After all, they come from the same sources that claim everything in the economy is just peachy keen.
Moreover, I would like to know what Bubba’s economic team will look like, since he will be appointed Econ Tzar by Illery.
Summers? Rogoff? Rahm Emanuel?
Mish…..does GDP carry the same measurement weight it once did in a primary industrialized culture? And does GDP focus allow the Keynesian mentally to prevail as gov spending is added to it.
The Ivy League brand of Keynes Econ babble rides the coat tail.
Mauldin writes a good piece here…….http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/negative-rates-nail-savers-and-why-cash-is-not-a-curse/
I’m kinda confused where this much GDP growth could be coming from. Inventories aren’t building and exports aren’t increasing notably as far as I know, so how are we supposed to have a 2.5% growth in real final sales? It’s not like the consumer is very strong.
BEA using very low deflator. Don’t have the data at hand, but iirc, in Q2 BLS had CPI @ 3.42% … BEA chose to deflate by 2.22%
According to tax receipts data we are in recession right now. Tax receipt growth just hit zero. Very reliable indicator. Also China is wavering. China is way overdue for a banking crisis. Hong Kong even worse. And Australia, South Korea, Netherlands.