Today the US Department of Transportation (DOT) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued their long-awaited report on Automated Vehicles Policy.
The report, Accelerating the Next Revolution in Roadway Safety openly embraces self-driving vehicles.
Highly Automated Vehicle (HAV) Framework
Report Snips, Emphasis Mine
As the digital era increasingly reaches deeper into transportation, our task at the U.S.
Department of Transportation is not only to keep pace, but to ensure public safety while establishing a strong foundation such that the rules of the road can be known, understood, and responded to by industry and the public. The self-driving car raises more possibilities and more questions than perhaps any other transportation innovation under present discussion. That is as it should be. Possessing the potential to uproot personal mobility as we know it, to make it safer and even more ubiquitous than conventional automobiles and perhaps even more efficient, self-driving cars have become the archetype of our future transportation.Still, important concerns emerge. Will they fully replace the human driver? What ethical judgments will they be called upon to make? What socioeconomic impacts flow from such a dramatic change? Will they disrupt the nature of privacy and security? Many of these larger questions will require longer and more thorough dialogue with government, industry, academia and, most importantly, the public.
As the Department charged with protecting the traveling public, we recognize three realities that necessitate this guidance. First, the rise of new technology is inevitable. Second, we will achieve more significant safety improvements by establishing an approach that translates our knowledge and aspirations into early guidance. Third, as this area evolves, the “unknowns” of today will become “knowns” tomorrow. We do not intend to write the final word on highly automated vehicles here. Rather, we intend to establish a foundation and a framework upon which future Agency action will occur.
For DOT, the excitement around highly automated vehicles (HAVs) starts with safety. Two numbers exemplify the need. First, 35,092 people died on U.S. roadways in 2015 alone. Second, 94 percent of crashes can be tied to a human choice or error. An important promise of HAVs is to address and mitigate that overwhelming majority of crashes. Whether through technology that corrects for human mistakes, or through technology that takes over the full driving responsibility, automated driving innovations could dramatically decrease the number of crashes tied to human choices and behavior. HAVs also hold a learning advantage over humans. While a human driver may repeat the same mistakes as millions before them, an HAV can benefit from the data and experience drawn from thousands of other vehicles on the road. DOT is also encouraged about the potential for HAV systems to use other complementary sensor technologies such as vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) capabilities to improve system performance. These sensor technologies have their own potential to reduce the number and severity of crashes, and the inclusion of V2V and V2I capabilities could augment the safety and performance of HAV systems.
The benefits don’t stop with safety. Innovations have the potential to transform personal mobility and open doors to people and communities—people with disabilities, aging populations, communities where car ownership is prohibitively expensive, or those who prefer not to drive or own a car—that today have limited or impractical options. Cities will reconsider how space is utilized and how public transit is provided. Infrastructure capacity could be increased without pouring a single new truck load of concrete. HAVs may also have the potential to save energy and reduce air pollution from transportation through efficiency and by supporting vehicle electrification.
State Policy
Today, a motorist can drive across state lines without a worry more complicated than, “did the speed limit change?” The integration of HAVs should not change that ability. Similarly, a manufacturer should be able to focus on developing a single HAV fleet rather than 50 different versions to meet individual state requirements. State governments play an important role in facilitating HAVs, ensuring they are safely deployed, and promoting their life-saving benefits. The Model State Policy confirms that States retain their traditional responsibilities for vehicle licensing and registration, traffic laws and enforcement, and motor vehicle insurance and liability regimes.
Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles
Under current law, manufacturers bear the responsibility to self-certify that all of the vehicles they manufacture for use on public roadways comply with all applicable Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS). Therefore, if a vehicle is compliant within the existing FMVSS regulatory framework and maintains a conventional vehicle design, there is currently no specific federal legal barrier to an HAV being offered for sale.
In addition to safety, automated vehicles can provide significant, life-altering mobility benefits for persons with disabilities, older persons, and others who may not be considered in conventional design programs. DOT encourages manufacturers and other entities to consider the full array of users and their specific needs during the development process.
Four Mish Conclusions
- The Department of Transportation (DOT) fully embraced self-driving vehicles. There is no other interpretation.
- DOT will set the rules. There will not be a patchwork of state-by-state regulations. States will only retain licensing, insurance, and speed limit regulations.
- DOT expects, as do I, that HAVs will address and mitigate the overwhelming majority of crashes. DOT notes that 94 percent of crashes can be tied to a human choice or error.
- My long-stated timeframe for millions of long-haul trucking jobs to vanish by the 2022-2024 is likely too distant.
The Fed is on the verge of getting the major productivity boost it seeks. Will it like the result?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
You didn’t create that!!!!!! oh wait…….
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Mish Mishess the point once again.
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Or changes his tune ?
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” highly automated vehicles (HAVs) ”
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Interesting this is — NOT – ” fully-autonomous vehicles ”
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.There is a great difference in terminology and technology and even
as I have mentioned before highlighted numerous times ETHICS …..
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. What ethical judgments will they be called upon to make?
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Ethics – just one of the very many issues I had written previously –
and exactly what was poo pooed by
the author here.
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. Everyone knows HAVs are on the rise, Its old technology whether distronic driving
or automatic breaking. But is of course improving over time.
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. Fully Autonomous is of course a horse of a different color and in its infancy.
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. MISH let me help you understand,.
…. At some point, self-driving technologies will have improved to the point that failure is extremely rare. Safe, truly self-driving, fully autonomous — which the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration defines as Level 4 technology — vehicles will become a reality and my concerns will no longer be relevant.
Until then I think of a conversation with John Krafcik, chief executive of Google’s self-driving car project, at the New York International Auto Show earlier this year.
Self-driving cars are both “closer than you think and further than you might imagine,” he told me.
His point didn’t fully register at the time, but I think his idea was simple: Self-driving technologies are already here, starting with the introduction long ago of automatic transmissions. But fully self-driving vehicles, operating at a level of safety that will be acceptable to society, are perhaps decades off.
https://www.trucks.com/2016/08/04/self-driving-cars-trucks-human-survival/
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Or for example = look one of all the other issues that will come =
https://www.trucks.com/2016/07/25/self-driving-trucks-terrorist-tools/
You will find out how far this “decades” prediction is within 6 years
.I see after time the link was permitted. and the post posted.
So you know more than John Krafcik, chief executive of Google’s self-driving car project,
and will not even consider his statement.
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My opinion, You have been completely fooled by the hype and pomp and the pump
of course these VC dependent projects VC DESPERATE projects are selling
you – and you have dug in your heels.
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Good luck it will be interesting to watch –
Mish let me help you understand:
Not from my words, for you seem to disagree with me
but words of others.
Can Human Drivers Survive the Transition to Self-Driving Cars and Trucks?
JEREMY ANWYL
At some point, self-driving technologies will have improved to the point that failure is extremely rare. Safe, truly self-driving, fully autonomous — which the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration defines as Level 4 technology — vehicles will become a reality and my concerns will no longer be relevant.
Until then I think of a conversation with John Krafcik, chief executive of Google’s self-driving car project, at the New York International Auto Show earlier this year.
Self-driving cars are both “closer than you think and further than you might imagine,” he told me.
His point didn’t fully register at the time, but I think his idea was simple: Self-driving technologies are already here, starting with the introduction long ago of automatic transmissions. But fully self-driving vehicles, operating at a level of safety that will be acceptable to society, are perhaps decades off.
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the post with the link was denied.
so you will have to google the article name and author.
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Good Luck to you.
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How long will it be before we are no longer permitted to drive vehicles? Human error. Human enslavement.
So, are productivity gains going to offset the COST of unemployed people? Is driving a truck or even a car a job Americans are too good to do?
I sit in metro traffic every day. I watch all the various, speeding and sleeping drivers doing battle. I wonder how a ultra cautious all knowing automated vehicle is going to integrate with impatient drivers trying desperately to cut them off.
We KNOW that this will result in human operated cars being banned from most roadways, if for no other reason than few would be able to afford the insurance. I hate being perceived as a Ludite. I have embraced technology in my business well in advance of most of my competitors….but I wonder.
The auto business is a very emotional and individualistic business. Who will want a sports car, or suv, or anything relative to a driving experience once self driving cars have taken over? It would seem to me that most will simply look at them as a commodity, and as Lyft suggested, eventually no one will even own a car as they will simple text for a ride. To me, this may be great for convenience AND efficiency, but also it would seem to take one hell of a bite out of our economy, our JOBS. Look at how much the auto industry contributes to our GDP.
Overall, it seems this drive for efficiency is about the fact that we have no choice…we are going broke and likely will not be able to afford our own car. We see our government use efficiency for many of their actions, while we watch our prosperity slip away. Obamacare is an efficiency product that we see is forcing us into an even MORE efficient system called single payer, and we will be glad to get it….because we will have no other choice.
I’m sorry to be so cynical, so suspicious of our technological miracles, but I fear that we are robotically weaving the rope for our own hanging, marveling at ho efficient we are.
I see it as a way of compacting people into cities where the “elite”(?) think they can manage them ie; Agenda 21, Agenda 30. Cars of yesterday were manageable, but today, you can’t even fix the damn things, federal law prohibits or seeks to prohibit modification. Economics wise, it’s just another step to a consumer-less society that will begin to fail as soon as it’s started.
Will cars go where we want them to, or where the government has provided pre approval.
Self driving cars….we might as well put on a dog collar.
And if this is about saving lives, then why are we worried about world population? Aren’t we ever going to ask this question? We are seemingly desperately spending massive amounts of money to extend people’s lives while madly pushing abortion and birth control…..while being told we MUST import immigrants from third world countries to provide the work we either don’t want to do or simply lack warm bodies to do.Maybe it’s just me but I feel like I’m living in a madhouse.
Meanwhile, we are just too busy to drive ourselves….and we just aren’t safe. Thank God we have government to protect us from ourselves. Life in the Matrix increasingly seem the most rational choice if we accept our modern elites vision for us. Do nothing, risk nothing, say nothing, and above all other things do not insult anyone.
Cars were a symbol of freedom to new drivers years ago. Self driving cars driven by gubberment. I’m looking at open source.
I’d like to add to your post that I wholeheartedly agree with.
The average age of a car in the US is 11.4 years. The average cost of a new car is about $33,500. Mandating all cars be self driving by some date will force a lot of people (like myself) into spending a lot more for a new car than they would ever spend, or in many cases ever afford to spend, on a new car.
With increasing numbers of people falling out of the “middle class”, a forced change over will meet with great resistance.
Who knows? The elimination of the non-self driving car could be the new “war on drugs” – a money maker for the prison/industrial complex.
One thing you are missing here: The goal of companies like Uber, Lyft, and (probably) Ford is not for you to buy a self-driving car. No, their goal is for you to never own a car at all. They want you to pay a subscription fee for personalized transportation, much like people in Europe pay subscription fees for access to public transportation. I lived in Switzerland for a couple years — an annual public transit fee was about $700 / year for local transport. It’s like that throughout Europe (though cheaper in most places). Imagine paying $200 / month for access to a car with contractual agreements about how long it will take to get a ride (e.g., your car will arrive within 15 minutes of request). Most people have $400 / month car payments plus $100 / month for gas. So for most people (and the poor are some of the worst at this), subscription services will save them money.
A fleet of self-driving cars can serve at least 3x the number of people as a personalized fleet. So the car companies are planning massive acquisitions of more expensive self-driving tech, but ultimately they’re hoping to win business at the expense of late adopters. The overall car market will shrink as a result, so there’re cannibalizing the industry.
At least at first, the self-driving cars won’t restrict your mobility, and I bet you’ll be able to buy your own. You might still get human-drivable cars, for a high price (maybe double what it costs today). In the long run, real mobility will come in the form of human-sized drone quadcopters.
Ha ha, I can guarantee you that is NOT Ford’s objective, although it is most certainly the objective of Uber et al. It is Ford’s delusion to think that they are not in deep doo-doo as a result of autonomous vehicles, and that they need to VERY carefully manage their capital spending and release of capital as a large fraction of their capacity must be unwound.
Today, like people in the transition to automobiles, we can’t see the jobs that will come about but they surely will. It is imperative that we continue to move forward and develop innovations of all kinds in a free market. In today’s Capiatlist societies the poor are richer is virtually every measure than 99% of the people were 200 years ago. They have things that were not even conceived.
“Embracing” something sounds good for dramatic effects. I “embrace” a cure for cancer and so much prosperity that it eliminates the welfare state.
But making it work on a large scale is quite a different endeavor.
Show me.
Nicely said. I agree self driving cars will someday exist, just not by 2021 or 2026 or shortly thereafter. There are too many variables to account for. My current Subaru has Eyesight technology. It works great except when the windshield is dirty or the sun is too bright or when it detects a tar line as a lane and nags when it thinks I left the lane. I know, in the future, dirt and bright sunlight will not exist and perfect computers will factor out everything that doesn’t work today. Even Uber has spare drivers in the car to supplement the huge mass of sensors and computers on their test cars, all of which are said to only work in a small area of a test town.
Outrageous over-step by government!
Signed,
Buggy-whip Manufacturers Association
If self-driving cars save the lives of 25000+ people each year, and eliminate tens of thousand of annual injuries, the savings in insurance (auto, life, disability) would be staggering. The savings in health care costs would be even greater. And if people stop buying personal autos, and choose to text for a ride, that would free up a tremendous amount of disposable income for those people. It is hard to predict where people would spend the money saved as a result. Hopefully, much of it will be put into more productive use (not just consumer use) which could be a tremendous boon for the economy.
Regarding jobs lost; we have been losing jobs to technology for 200 years, and yet we have more jobs than ever before. I know that is small comfort if it is “you” that lose “your” job, but it is a trend that is not going away.
The advancement of technology means the end of human evolution, Increasingly more skills that used to delineate superior from inferior, are being replaced by technology. This technology is being developed by fewer and fewer people and displacing more and more. Evolution reflected superiority, a notion that progressives ideologically want dead, and technology is their best tool short of redistribution. Equality used to be desired in opportunity, but now equality is DEMANDED in OUTCOME.
Maybe this is good. Maybe we have peaked, have evolved as much as we can. Maybe we are at the end. Maybe our suffering is over. Technology and progressivism will ultimately set us free.
“The advancement of technology means the end of human evolution”
You are wrong.
Human evolution never stop, evolution never stop.
It just change direction.
I do not see self driving cars/pickups working in rural areas where a vehicle is used in actual work (let’s say a farm or construction) or where there are large driving distances few cars per square mile.
Mish lives in the Chicago area. He sees the country only through those lenses. Out in the flyover country you will have to pry our steering wheels from our cold dead hands.
Government rules through incrementalism using laws and money. They will simply make it harder and harder to own a vehicle. Insurance and license fees, compounded with strict law enforcement on public roads. Seat belt laws are simplistic compared to what they can saddle us with….all for our own good of course.
Never forget we are frogs in a pot, and before we know we are stew. We have been moving in this direction for an eternity, with technology finally delivering the ultimate tool….convenience and safety. Power grid, information/entertainment system, food, fuel and so much more, all convenient and also making us totally dependent. Look at what a few days of a broken gas line did to a large area. It will be extremely hard to push back against this.
The DOT report did stress safety.
Self-driving cars in urban areas can co-exist with human-driven cars in rural areas. In reality, the self-driving technology is far less brittle than most people here seem to imagine, by which I mean that the new machines will be able to interact with human-driven cars “safely” in a matter of years. These are learning technologies that adapt to statistical observations robustly; they are like old computers that require exact and precise programming.
Also, you have to acknowledge that the rural market is a niche market — only a small percentage of people need F-350s. You can make 80% of the available money by serving urban and suburban commuters. To get the 20% of the driving market represented by drillers, ranchers, cowboys, and rednecks would require a more serious investment, along with cultural and attitudinal changes.
EDIT: they are like old computers –> they are not like old computers
self driving farm tractors are a reality today
adoption will be roughly at these rates
2017 – widespread beta testing 5,000 units
2018 – initial adoption by niche application 50,000 units
2019 – widespread adoption by niche applications and For hire 100,000
2020 – initial adoption by retail buyers 200,000 units
2021 – 5% market share of new 750,000 units
2022 – 10% market share 1,500,000 plus prior = 2 million SDs on road
2023 – 15% market share 2.2 million plus prior = 4 million SDs on road
2024 – 20% market share 3.5 million plus prior = 7 million SDs on road
2025 – 25% market share 4 million plus prior = 11 million SDs on road
2026 – 35% market share 6 million plus prior = 18 million SDs on road
18 million SDs on road by 2026 perhaps even 2x if market share grows to 50% instead of 35%
“I do not see self driving cars/pickups working in rural areas where a vehicle is used in actual work (let’s say a farm or construction) or where there are large driving distances few cars per square mile.”
There will eventually be little beacons along every road to help the cars navigate safely – and to extract tolls.
Self-driving/autonomous Inter-modal trucking… sure. Makes sense. Open highways, fewer risks, limited traffic patterns.
Self-driving/autonomous Taxis ? No way. Too many pedestrians, too many risks, too many traffic patterns.
Every homeless bum in the country will be stepping in front of these driverless taxis… what’s the $tandard $ettlement for pedestrian accident/claims going to be?
Driverless vehicles on highways is one thing…. driveless vehicles on city streets is something else altogether…
DOT will do its usual outstanding job in setting the parameters for robocars
You’re all nascent social crediters. And AI will destroy jobs at a rate 10 X as fast as innovation has ever done so before. And of course the modern economies are cost inflationary anyway. Wake up.
I see self driving cars in large metropolitan areas. Rural not so much as we drive trucks and SUVs. The government is not going to outlaw someone driving their personal vehicle anytime soon if ever.
Think about that for a minute with as many vehicles on the road including antique vehicles, will not be given up so easily as Mish thinks. Kinda sorta like the electric car fiasco right now where we taxpayers are funding the Tesla with a 15k rebate from the Fed. The vehicle would not be selling at the manufacturers cost without Uncle Sugar handing them money thru the backdoor. Same will apply to self driving vehicles.
Non-automated cars won’t be literally outlawed, they will be economically outlawed. As a result, only the wealthy can afford to drive them.
Government controlled vehicles–what could go wrong? Of course, the same Government has “embraced” carbon control and the scam of AGW, huge subsidies for electric vehicles, space travel which has gone nowhere, wind power, etc. So the Oligarchy’s opinion about anything seems to be a contrary indicator…
It’s very difficult to put a timetable on something that will be a long evolutionary process that hasn’t even begun yet. I don’t think having self driving vehicles violates any laws of physics or has insurmountable technical problems, but until I see at least a few in actual use, it’s hard to estimate when they’ll be commonly used.
Eventually, they’ll be commonplace. Like eventually we’ll colonize the moon and mars. Assuming we don’t go extinct first. But, it could take 20 years or 100 years or 1000 years.
Or it could take two years. Several front runners are using the tech right now on the road (google, tesla, uber, lyft, ford, etc). If someone can get it to work reliably in certain (heavily scanned/modeled) areas on good weather days uber or lyft can roll it out next year to take a certain percentage of the uber/lyft market. Uber said a year ago it would buy 500k teslas that day if they could offer full autonomy. Their model will rely on the cheapest operational costs (buy using off-peak electricity and cheap parking and optimizing maintenance). Tesla plans the non capital intensive approach by letting owners rent out their vehicles when they choose to (allowing the cars to essentially pay for themselves, under normal circumstances). Both models, if under competitive pressure, will underprice the human driven and gas market (whether owned or ride-share) and tap new markets like elderly, disabled, and the rural poor.
The transition for private ownership to AV or to non-ownership will be longer, allowing the current vehicles to wear out and be retired. But when you have to go online to find the gas stations along your planned roadtrip (like you currently have to with an EV), people will abandon gas cars readily. In the metro regions, when the former HOV lanes turn into HAV lanes people will consider AVs for non economic reasons. And as it slowly takes over additional lanes and the traffic continues to get worse in the regular lanes, while getting better in the HAVs…Gas and human driven vehicles will be collector toys in 25 years, even in rural areas.
Saw a presentation by Mobileye CEO Amnon Shashua. Mobileye is an Israeli company that licenses self-driving tech to most manufacturers (including Tesla, whom they are suing over the fatal accident in Florida, claiming they told Tesla they needed tech to detect hands on the wheel but were ignored). Their internal roadmap calls for complete self-driving capability by 2020, with widespread adoption around 2023 after demonstrating safety. They might be off by a few years, but when they say 2020 for full self-driving capability, that means that they already pretty much have it worked out now — pedestrian & obstacle recognition, various weather conditions, lane identification, detection of anomalies & problematic situation, planning-based control, and crowd-sourced real-time mapping of roads that adjusts within seconds to changes due to road work and accidents. It’s pretty impressive.
The only thing still needed is a large library of extreme situations that could be gathered from wrecks during the early adoption period. Once you have full sensor data for 10,000 wrecks or so (maybe 1,000 fatal, say), you could use reinforcement learning to avoid the vast majority of those. It won’t take long. And it will eviscerate the car industry.
AFAIK, mobileye’s tech is optical only, which is great in that the first AVs should all use cameras for post-drive analysis anyway. But even with ideal SW it cannot function in all environments. For instance, imagine mud hitting the camera lens. The system could attempt to get off the road based on its previously captured data and entice its occupant to clean it but getting off the road may not be possible at that spot and, blinded, it couldn’t react to any changes in traffic in the direction of that sensor. Therefore the system either needs significant redundancy (and low failure tolerance) or better yet, it needs to be combined with other sensors like RADAR and LIDAR (which can distinguish between an object and a background of similar color, like in the tesla crash you mention). Having worked with both (but not optical), I highly favor radar. But again, you still want cameras so why not use them (as well)? And you can’t read speed limits or construction signs with radar/lidar.
Who wins this race is whoever properly records, distributes, and analyzes the data from a large volume of cars in large variety of markets. I’m not sure what Tesla’s strategy is, but now that it’s shipping AV sensors on their cars I would always be running the (alpha level 4) AV system in the background and recording deviations from user behavior. Retain a handful of photographs around the car during significant deviations and send those back to tesla when the car is not in use. Retain surprise events/objects the system didn’t detect in time. Record extreme maneuvers and collisions and compare with what your system would have done. Retain enough data in these important cases to be able to replay it through an upgraded AV system (even perhaps translating sensor data into data expected from new/evaluated sensors). When your system is finally doing considerably better than the human drivers then offer full autonomy.
If Tesla can build 100k M3s next year as promised and 20% have a sensor suite that’s (potentially) L4 capable they’ll get all the data they need (on the 2G cell network they already have) by 2019. It’s just whether or not they can analyze it well enough and upgrade the systems fast enough.
Predictably, pieces of garbage like Ald. Ed Burke in Chicago wan to ban autonomous vehicles. Apparently they think Chicago’s economy isn’t dying fast enough.
One thing that is being overlooked here: The framework for developing these vehicles which has recently been the focus of the DOT and the manufacturers requires the vehicle to have a “black box” which will record many variables so that crash data can be analysed for safety reasons. Of course no one is pointing out it will also record every place the vehicle went, when and possibly even who was in it, as authorizing the vehicle to move will require identifying the “driver”. This info of course will be made available to any initialed agency for our safety or that of our children. 1984 had nothing this pervasive.
This will happen because governments want it to happen.
Note “Data recording and sharing” is the first point in the blue requirements list in the table.
Unfortunately very true. We need a new “Bill of Rights” limiting information that the government and corporations are allowed to collect and how they use. More importantly, we need a populace that cares about such things and is willing to do the hard work of enforcing such limits on government and large corporate entities. I think we will have to go through an age of Neo-Monarchy before that ever happens.
The bank has consistently tried very hard to prevent the people from benefitting from productivity improvements in the form of affordable prices. If we get a gold standard, then the people have some hope of benefitting from productivity improvements, instead of just bankers.
Without a gold standard, cheaper cab fare will just translate into bankers printing yet another 10% health insurance inflation, or some such. So what is there to cheer about?
I am sorry to hear that DOT has embraced self-driving cars. If they had merely tolerated it, that would be fine. Obviously, they are setting us up for a ban on driving.
As far as safety is concerned, there will eventually be little electronic devices along all roads which be used by self-driving cars to navigate. There will also be technology available to make self-driving cars ‘aware’ of other cars close to them. This will avoid things like the death of the Tesla driver whose self-driving car’s software misinterpreted a truck in its path.
Yeah I’ve been making this point online a lot. Self-driving cars won’t be able to safely operate on conventional infrastructure. And the infrastructure upgrades required, for those little electronic devices *in* the roads will require the roads themselves be replaced.
The big question is who is going to pay for all of this? The country is broke. Self-driving cars are expected to cost upwards of $1M per unit and require expensive professional maintenance. The infrastructure requirements alone will likely cost trillions. Just how does this come out to be cheaper than using human drivers paid not much more than minimum? Or tweaking railways and supply chains, at far less expense, to do the same?
Self-driving vehicles are an interesting intellectual exercise, but Mish is way, way off in his predictions and timeframes. Maybe 30 years from now. 10 years, not a chance.
It will happen–at some level–and at some time. But before all you techno-unicorn chasers out there start peeing all over yourselves, read this for a reality check…
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/20/science/computer-vision-tesla-driverless-cars.html
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