We are still waiting for the fat lady to sing on whether or not Deutsche Bank shares are totally worthless, but meanwhile, hardly anyone was on the right side of the trade.
ZeroHedge reported Deutsche Bank Stock Plunges To All Time Low After Merkel Rules Out State Bailout; Default Risk Surges.
That’s not surprising in the least. But what caught my eyes was this tidbit that ZH reported: “Bearish bets rose to 3% of shares outstanding on Sept. 22 from almost a three-month low of 1.7% on Sept. 16, according to data compiled by Markit Ltd.”
Deutsche Bank Shorts
On September 16, 1.7% were short Deutsche Bank. 3% are short now.
Congratulations if you were short this turkey. I wasn’t. But I certainly was not long.
Related Articles
- September 24: Merkel Says No Aid for Deutsche Bank; Depositor Bail-In Coming Up?
- September 20: Is Deutsche Bank Cooking its Derivatives Book to Hide Huge Losses?
- July 1: Diving Into Deutsche Bank’s “Passion to Perform” Balance Sheet
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
contagion – what are most likely banks ?
Wells Fargo should be on the junk list. I almost wish I had an account there, so I could close it:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wells-fargo-scandal-shows-the-next-bank-crisis-is-coming-164517227.html
http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/how-to/growth-strategies/2016/09/where-was-the-wells-fargo-board.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo
Shame on you DB bankers. How could you do this to your depositors and shareholders?
it was USG revenge for Apple extortion by EU
This is much worse than that. I don’t know the details that make up this business failure but I can guess. AIG made bad bets and assumed the worst would be nothing like what actually happened … it was outside the experience of average activity.
DB must be run by psychopaths who are supervised by idiots who are managed by greedy little turds. Draghi was a useful idiot who they used masterfully. Now, it’s time to reveal the secrets. Will they by Cloverfield across Europe or will they be Enron … big mess but little otherwise? Also, will Germany let the perpetrators retire in comfort, less a couple of sacrificial scapegoats?
This is much worse than that. I don’t know the details that make up this business failure but I can guess. AIG made bad bets and assumed the worst would be nothing like what actually happened … it was outside the experience of average activity.
DB must be run by psychopaths who are supervised by idiots who are managed by greedy little turds. Draghi was a useful idiot who they used masterfully. Now, it’s time to reveal the secrets. Will they by Cloverfield across Europe or will they be Enron … big mess but little otherwise? Also, will Germany let the perpetrators retire in comfort, less a couple of sacrificial scapegoats?
From zero to hero
From hero to zero
Deutsche Bank is trading at 22% of book equity. Another big bank in Italy, Monte dei Paschi is trading at 6%. BCP Millennium in Portugal, no 1 listed bank, is trading at 16% of book equity.
Quite a success this eurozone project.
The smart money has spoken. Will dumb depositors listen, or are they only hearing “€ 100 000 deposit guarantee”.
Think you meant “short this Turkey” not “shot this Turkey”. Please keep up the good work.
Cheers.
It could be both.
Being long Gold and US 10-year Treasuries is a “safer” way to bet against insolvent European Mega-banks.
The Last Domino (treasuries … until the smoke clears) good for a whole lotta of ailments – china meltdown, war(s), deflation (yeah, i know, deflation a good thing), asteroid impact, godzilla coming out of hibernation, etc.
I won’t name names, but one of our regulars here a few months ago said nothing wrong with DB and no bailout will be needed.
I won’t hold my breath waiting for their appearance.
I don’t think anyone will stand by and let DB collapse. So there might be a lot of upside to that stock price. If I were a younger man with some cash I’d jump in. Remember when BOFA traded at $5?
“If I were a younger man with some cash I’d jump in.” Can’t old people jump in? If you did, you would be a broke old man.
I’ll hold your beer
You are right … no way Germany allows DB to go under … but I think shareholders will be sacrificed (make it more palatable politically) before taxpayer $$s put into breach.
2016 DeutscheBank = 2008 Bear Stearns
Now then, where is Charlie Gasparino when you really need him?
There is another angle to this. Merkel has gambled with her last piece of credibility.
If DB does get a bail-out she will look even more ridiculous.
Allianz have said they expect DB to get Gov assistance if it get bad enough.
So, does Merkel know it won’t get that bad?
Does she mean what she says or are Allianz just trying to shore up a little confidence and can’t face reality?
With the Greeks being thrown to the wolves not so long ago, and Italian banks on the cusp, if they do bail-out DB it makes a mockery of any EU solidarity and Merkel is truly finished.
One rule for Germany, another for everyone else?
Draghi is meeting in Germany soon.
Gee, is this why thr LIBOR rate has been rising?
Merkel and Draghi (and Yellen) can try to save DB, but it might be just too big to save.
Even they do save it, they’ve effective killed the Eurozone, because how can Germany lecture anyone else about fiscal probity anymore? Everybody will will have their hand out, and how can the ECB say no? Hell, the Greeks and Cypriots might be making a case for reparations.