Hillary has to be getting increasingly nervous. What appeared to be nearly a sure thing to some political analysts in mid-August is now looking very favorable for Trump.

On August 14, Nate Silver posted ridiculous odds of 89.2% to 10.8% in favor of Hillary. Silver now has the election odds at 54.6% to 45.4% in favor of Hillary.

Momentum suggests Trump is going to win. He just has to perform well in the debates.

Shifting Odds

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Silver’s 89.2% likelihood for Hillary on August 14 highlights the weakness of polls vs. common sense when it comes to predicting human emotions over time.

States in Play

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Here are some battleground states tossing out old polls.

Michigan

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Colorado

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Pennsylvania

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New Hampshire

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Path to Victory

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Everyone assumes Florida is a “must win” state for Trump. That’s not necessarily true. Wins in Pennsylvania (20) and Michigan (16) would cover a loss in Florida (29).

Trump could also trade North Carolina (15) for Pennsylvania (20) and come out ahead.

Momentum in Colorado (9) has been strongly in favor of Trump. Colorado and Pennsylvania would exactly cover a loss in Florida but Trump would still need to pick up some other state, with Michigan being the most likely.

If Trump holds on to the states in his column, and I think that is very likely, then the must win states are actually Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Michigan, not for Trump, but for Hillary.

If Trump does well in the debates he will win, perhaps easily.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock