Hillary has to be getting increasingly nervous. What appeared to be nearly a sure thing to some political analysts in mid-August is now looking very favorable for Trump.
On August 14, Nate Silver posted ridiculous odds of 89.2% to 10.8% in favor of Hillary. Silver now has the election odds at 54.6% to 45.4% in favor of Hillary.
Momentum suggests Trump is going to win. He just has to perform well in the debates.
Shifting Odds
Silver’s 89.2% likelihood for Hillary on August 14 highlights the weakness of polls vs. common sense when it comes to predicting human emotions over time.
States in Play
Here are some battleground states tossing out old polls.
Michigan
Colorado
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Path to Victory
Everyone assumes Florida is a “must win” state for Trump. That’s not necessarily true. Wins in Pennsylvania (20) and Michigan (16) would cover a loss in Florida (29).
Trump could also trade North Carolina (15) for Pennsylvania (20) and come out ahead.
Momentum in Colorado (9) has been strongly in favor of Trump. Colorado and Pennsylvania would exactly cover a loss in Florida but Trump would still need to pick up some other state, with Michigan being the most likely.
If Trump holds on to the states in his column, and I think that is very likely, then the must win states are actually Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Michigan, not for Trump, but for Hillary.
If Trump does well in the debates he will win, perhaps easily.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Hillary dies on stage tonight…and takers?
How about passes out or stumbles?
How about lies and mumbles?
Best senario, a murder of crows peck their way into the building and chew pieces off her as she collapses in a heap. A perfect “Murders in the Rue Morgue” sequel.
Donald Trump Couldn’t Help Himself At Monday’s Presidential Debate
Clinton won.
09/26/2016 10:39 pm ET | Updated 0 minutes ago
Ryan Grim
Washington bureau chief for The Huffington Post
Amanda Terkel
Senior Political Reporter, The Huffington Post
Sam Stein
Senior Politics Editor, The Huffington Post
HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. ― Donald Trump, within striking distance of the presidency, stepped on stage here Monday and did what Hillary Clinton hoped he would.
He behaved like Donald Trump
The Clinton campaign’s greatest fear throughout the general election has been that some other Trump would emerge ― a more measured, reasonable and mature man, one who might look like he was ready for the Oval Office. That man doesn’t exist, so he didn’t show up.
Trump came out with a clear game plan, targeted at Ohio and Pennsylvania voters frustrated with the loss of manufacturing, hitting Clinton on trade over and over.
But Trump fairly quickly reverted to the alpha male role that had worked so well in Republican debates, becoming something of a Rick Lazio in split screen, hectoring, interrupting, sniffling loudly and rolling his eyes.
Clinton, after spending the campaign cleaving Trump away from the Republican Party, arguing that there was something uniquely different about him, instead treated Trump Monday night as if Mitt Romney had shown up
He was an advocated, she said somewhat awkwardly, of “trumped-up trickle down economics,” and was little more than a fortunate son. “He started his business with $14 million borrowed from his father, and he really believes that the more you help wealthy people, the better off we’ll be and that everything will work out from there. I don’t buy that,” Clinton said.
The $14 million dollar figure comes from a Wall Street Journal article published this week ― demonstrating the value of running an actual campaign with an opposition research arm.
Clinton came in with a clear case of nerves, aware that upwards of 100 million people may be watching, and the weight of the free world on her shoulders, but smoothed her performance out quickly. She worked hard to bait him, using the word “crazy” at one point to describe his contributions to the conversation, and speculating that he wasn’t as rich as he claimed he was.
“First, maybe he’s not as rich as he says he is,” Clinton said. “Maybe he’s not as charitable as he claims to be. Third, we don’t know all of his business dealings, but we have been told through investigative reporting that he owes about $650 million to Wall Street and foreign banks. Or maybe he doesn’t want the American people, all of you watching tonight, to know that he’s paid nothing in federal taxes.”
Trump took the bait, because he knows no other way.
The debate then moved to the topic of race relations, and Trump defended his questioning of President Barack Obama’s birthplace, saying that, in fact, he did the president a favor. “I was the one who got him to produce the birth certificate, and I think I did a good job,” he said.
Clinton’s rebuttal was among her most effective moments, which she transitioned into a reminder to the public that when he began his career as a real estate developer, Trump explicitly discriminated against African-Americans.
To defend himself, Trump focused on the fact that after he was sued by the Department of Justice ― Richard Nixon’s DOJ, a fact that wasn’t mentioned ― he settled the case and admitted no wrongdoing.
As the debate moved to foreign policy, Trump failed to hit Clinton’s main vulnerability, her hawkishness, by repeatedly lying about his own position on the Iraq war. “I did not support the war in Iraq,” he said. Tape of him saying he did support it in 2002, he said, shouldn’t be believed, because he hadn’t thought about the issue much.
And that, more than anything, was the impression the debate left: Trump hasn’t thought about this stuff much. He’s not ready to be president. His odd campaign set awfully low expectations, but, paradoxically, high ones as well. He had to show he was ready to be president. He didn’t.
Trump has been gaining on Clinton in recent weeks, and has brought the race close to a tie. If it were held tomorrow, however, Clinton would win, and Trump did nothing to change that dynamic Monday night.
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Appeared to me, Trump fell on his sword in the debate.
It was painful to watch.
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Not sure where you are getting all that. Trump did what he needed to do. He held back and was restrained.
You’re really going to cut and paste Huffington Post stuff? That’s where the retards go to die. You must really be desperate for something positive about Clinton.
The Now-cast poll type of Nate Silver (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now) had Trump slightly ahead earlier today, but now HRC is back slightly ahead. I’m not sure how he’s able to update probabilities within hours, but he tries.
In any version of his polls, it’s basically tied though.
Nate Silver Prediction:
If the election were held today, Trump leads with a 54.9 percent chance of winning the election, according to the site.
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/26/silver-trump-would-win-if-election-were-held-today/#ixzz4LOWgl8sc
Just don’t cough. Whatever you do, just don’t cough. Is that a tickle in my throat?……am I imagining that?…….or is it…..*HACKAAAAHHHKKKK*!!!!
Koughehhhxxx-heekhhahhh!!
ZOMG….I can’t move my legs….they’re frozen…..dammit!!!!!!!! What are my eyes doing?!!!!!! I can’t see straight!!!! ARRGHHH!!!!!!!
The view from Central Florida: I have yet to see a single yard sign or bumper sticker for Hillz. Trump doesn’t have many, but I’ve seen a few plastered on the back of pick-ups and in rural areas. Saw my first Johnson/Weld yard sign (went up yesterday in my neighborhood).
Central Florida heading north is generally very conservative. We have an increasing Puerto Rican population that tends to vote democrat, but they aren’t making their presence felt yet. South Florida has a traditional older retiree/liberal Jewish/ultra-rich folks that slant democrat. And a bunch of Cubans who are staunchly Republican.
If the dems in S. Florida aren’t motivated, Trump takes Florida. I don’t think they’re motivated. On the other hand, most of the Cubans I’ve met (and my wife was born in Havana, so I know a bunch) aren’t exactly happy with Trumps treatment of immigrants and Little Marco.
Incidentally, I haven’t found anybody who likes Marco nowadays. He may actually lose his Senate seat. Fortunately the democrat is probably more conservative than Rubio is.
Reporting in ***LIVE*** from Democratic NJ (granted, from a conservative county….BTW, you know how you can tell it’s conservative, there’s a f*ckton of money and no blacks…but I digress).
TRUMP yard signs outweigh Pig signs about 7:1 Trump over Pig….maybe even 10:1
That all for now….back you Jon
The “Hillary is ahead” theme is necessary to justify claims of fraud when Trump wins….that damned Trump/Putin hacking! It doesn’t have to be reasonable or even rationally plausible, it just needs to be not impossible to have any credibility with the progressives. They have played this out for so long and come so close to bringing it all down to enable their grand socialist reset, and they will go completely raving mad if Hillary doesn’t take the white house.
I’m thinkin you’ll go raving mad when she wins the WH, dude
Your mom
Why do you have signs of yourself all over your town? Are you the town pig or something (piglet is more like it)
Come on Donald, adopt a gold standard as part of your platform.
A gold standard would mean an instant depression. Besides, without the elimination of the career politician, first with de factor term limits by voting out EVERY incumbent EVERY election, any gold-like std will be manipulated to accommodate the buying of votes. The problem is career politicians, not the Fed or a gold standard.
“A gold standard would mean an instant depression.”
What you mean ‘we’, kimosabe?……
Like they couldn’t “dilute” gold any less than they do paper. All monetary systems are corruptible because they are created and maintained by the powers that be…absolutely corruptible.
It’d only be 10-karat, like his cheesy motels
I noted on the WSJ site that the ENTIRE backdrop for the debate is in Hi LIAR y Clinton/Democrat blue – cannot be a mere coincidence, manipulation of the public continues. But, one of the respondents also pointed out, in conjunction with the Hi LIAR y Clinton famous blue glasses, the color blue can also be less likely to cause seizures – while red is more likely.
Interesting.
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Trump voters are being urged to wear red when they vote on Nov 8.
http://www.wnd.com/2016/09/trump-army-planning-to-flood-polling-stations-with-red/
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Red tie it is then Donald!
No, you are incredibly boring. Derp
“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered.” Thomas Jefferson
That’s been the plan for at least the previous 103 years.
Plan the work, and work the plan.
Makes me want to vomit.
“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered.” Thomas Jefferson
“WAKE UP” being the key words in above statement.
Still waiting.
Trump wins Michigan? Astounding.
Not so much. A few months ago, Michael Moore went on Bill Maher show and said that after a tour of Flint and other areas, he thinks Trump might win this one.
In ur wettest dreams, oh I forgot you can’t do that anymore. Derp
The debate performance will mean little, unless Hillary collapses. The silent majority are fed up and ain’t goin’ to take it anymore. Besides, Trump only kicks the financial reset can down the road, and will likely take the blame, if he is not assasinated first. A Hillary win rips off the band-aide and rightly sticks the liberals with the blame and central planning moniker.
Mish
time for investment themes 🙂
Investment themes??? Are still gambling in this crooked casino?
You mean trump towers, right? The cheesy one with all the fake gold
Here…let me help you with that…
…Cash
Your welcome,
Signed
El Douche
your mom
I think Hitlery has already peaked and is now in a downward trajectory. My guess is that the election is now Trump’s to lose.
All Hitlery offers up are the same old tired lies, and anyone willing to see it knows that every paragraph she speaks contains some kind of lie or untruth. Hitlery is the kind of person who will instinctively lie as a first resort, even when telling the truth has a better outcome. In other words, she’s a pathological liar, just like her husband and her daughter.
I lived just outside Washington DC during the entirety of Nixon’s Watergate fiasco from 1972-1974. I saw it all on a daily basis. Hitlery is unquestionably the most dishonest presidential candidate I’ve seen in my lifetime. She is even more shifty-eyed than Tricky Dick, and therefore makes Nixon look like an angelic altar boy.
Lies are better than the truth as they are designed to give you what you can’t otherwise earn, and as long as the “fact checking media” gets to decide what IS a lie, lying is a winner.
All you offer is the same old tired posts. so get over yourself. Derp
Van you’re the tired one. Dang you’re shilling for Shrillary and you know she’s just same old same old insider scammer / skimmer that will do all the same things that have been keeping the same people down you and your kind complain about since forever.
Alcoholic beverage manufacturers…
Every time she has a seizure…you have to take a shot or drink a beer.
Lot’s of folks gonna be hungover manana
You are a legend in your own mind, dude
Trump has burned a few bridges in our household with his prior comments about women. We may all agree to go with Gary Johnson as a peacemaker so our votes don’t cancel out and mean nothing.
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Speaking as a woman… I haven’t heard Trump say anything about women that I object to… it is the liberal democrats who are anti-woman.
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Yeah my wife did not like Trump’s comments on women’s issues early on and said she will vote for Gary. However The Donald is coming around; maybe my wife will also.
What ever happened to those fiberglass “naked Trump” statues that the Democrats were displaying in the big cities?
They had a message board on them covering his fat gut and small gherkin saying “Shame me for my behavior, not my body”.
So someone wrote that if Hillarity loses, the Democrumb party will be up Schitt’s Creek for years. And a Trump win would certainly rattle the status quo in the Elephant Crap Party, maybe even knock it to the ground.
What’s not to like?
As long as you are the first one to crap, dude
Following Nate SIlver on his political forecasts is like trying to follow a manic-depressive off his meds. I get mental whiplash from watching Nate’s forecasts. So I have tuned him out completely. I wish Mish would eliminate him from discussion in his blogs. He just isn’t important and his credibility has flown the coop.
Please – for the rest of the election season – no more Nate Silver. I can’t take it anymore.
Agree, I never heard of Nate Silver before Mish brought him up. Nate needs to be ignored.
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Appears to me, Trump fell on his sword in the debate.
It was painful to watch.
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Just finished watching the debate. She comes across as a policy wonk of the first order which of course she styles herself. Not too bright but God dammit she thinks she’s earned the job because she’s studied hard. And she has studied hard. Trump OTOH demonstrated his animal intelligence. Trump by a landslide.
Your mom in a landslide…..NOT
You come across as a wannabe cool person. Derp is more like it
Dude. Derp is not a magic word. It won’t make smart people who make sense disappear. Sorry.
Then where’d you go, derp?
Is the inverse true? If Trump does not win tonight’s debate, does that mean he will lose?
Who won the debate? Answer: NBC/Universal.
Who lost the debate? Answer: Truth.
Trump gave a poor performance as he was on the defensive for most of it.
Lester Holt did everything he could to make Hillary look good.
Hillary smiled a lot and displayed energy and preparation. (Her doctor must have changed her meds.)
The fact checkers lost as “Stop and Frisk” has been ruled CONSTITUTIONAL. Donald, Hillary, and Lester should not be allowed to practice law.
As expected, ESTABLISHMENT mouthpieces declared Hillary the winner and those who recognize that election promises by long term politicians are never kept declared Trump the winner.
Again, as in most elections as in war, the first casualty is Truth.
http://www.dictionary.com/browse/debate?s=t
We did NOT watch a “DEBATE” last evening. We watched an “Interview” of each candidate by a media hack.
Every time the 2 candidates contested issues “DIRECTLY” with each other, it was at the end of, or after, the allotted time they were provided to respond to the “Interviewer”.
In fact, the actual fringe “debating” (actual confrontation and direct discussion between the candidates was constricted, and branded by the Interviewer as a violation of the rules.
Tavistock Mind Control At Its Best.