The string of bad economic reports continues to mount. Today the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Region put in another dismal performance with a diffusion index reading of -8, following last month’s reading of -11.
36-Month Low in Employment
The Richmond Fed Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity shows Manufacturing Sector Activity Still Soft in September with Employment at a 36-Month Low.
Richmond Fifth District Manufacturing Conditions
Synopsis
- Wages up
- Inventories up
- Prices paid up
- Shipments down
- Employment down
- New orders down
- Backlog down
The manufacturing employment index fell into negative territory for the first time in three years, with a reading of -13.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
None of the numbers are even close to “expectations.” When will the awakening among mainstream economists happen? Ever?
Concensus among leading economists will happen about 6 to 12 months after the yield curve inverts. Concensus among economists is a trailing indicator.
Participation and employment rates have no where to go but down. You’re all nascent Social Crediters.
Wages up
Inventories up
Prices paid up
Shipments down
Layoffs will be UP.
… lay offs up for a short period of time until they too drop off the roles and get added to the “hidden Americans”, the people that are no longer counted, the ones that Obama swept under the rug for political reasons.
redbook chain store sales –
Redbook’s sample continues to point to deceleration in core retail sales, with year-on-year same-store sales in the September 24 week up only 0.2 percent for the second week in a row to match the slowest growth pace of the year. Year-on-year, monthly September sales were up just 0.4 percent, matching the second weakest reading in over a year. And versus the prior month, September same-store sales were down 0.5 percent.
http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=471709&cust=mam&year=2016&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top
Latest from Factset on Q3 S&P earnings –
As a result of the downward revisions to earnings estimates, the estimated year-over-year earnings decline for Q3 2016 is -2.3% today. On June 30, the expected earnings growth rate was 0.3%.
https://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/earningsinsight/earningsinsight_9.23.16
Auto dealership and restaurant SSS sales are also down YOY.
There are hints that a company I know is using some accounting tricks to pull sale into this quarter from next quarter by purchasing parts for a project and then billing our customer, with mark-up of course. If things are that bad, then other global companies might be doing that as well.
Enron accounting scandal co-conspirator Andrew Fastow claims lots of people are doing what they did and even worse. Leveraged up fivefold. He may be serving a hidden agenda, so he’s not exactly unbiased, but he could be right.
in reality employment is the lowest since the financial crisis for the Baltimore , D C, Richmond area, not just the past 36 months Mish