In the wake of today’s durable goods report and last week’s housing reports the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model for third quarter GDP ticked down 0.1 percentage points to 2.8%.
Latest forecast: 2.8 percent — September 28, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on September 28, down from 2.9 percent on September 20. The forecast of third-quarter real equipment investment growth fell from 1.5 percent to 0.8 percent after this morning’s advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of third-quarter real investment residential growth, which now stands at –8.9 percent, declined by 1.3 percentage points on both September 22 and September 26 following the release of housing data on those dates.
On Thursday the Census bureau posts an advance report on trade. On Friday, the Personal Income and Outlays report will highlight consumer spending.
Both GDPNow and the FRBNY update their models on Friday. The latest FRBNY Nowcast for 3rd quarter GDP was 2.26%.
Unless this week’s spending and trade reports are good, especially consumer spending, the FRBNY estimate could easily dip below 2%.
- Factory Orders Flat, July Revised 0.8% lower
- New Home Sales Decline 7.6%, Median Price Down 3.1%: “Very Positive” Says Econoday
- Existing Home Sales Sink Second Month: NAR, Economists Surprised
- GDP Estimates in Free-Fall: FRBNY Nowcast 2.26% for 3rd Quarter, 1.22% for 4th Quarter
Articles 1-3 above are not reflected in the most recent Nowcast. As it stands right now, I am guessing that their guess will be 2.0% to 2.1%.
It will not take much of a push to see a sub-2% reading. A poor spending report could result in an estimate of 1.8%. It will take a decent spending report just to hold things flat.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Yet the monthly subordinate stats don’t correlate. Things look down to worse and occasionally OK, but that’s probably lie. Which one(s) are wrong?
Truth seeker said:
Please forgive me once again Mish off topic: I think u have probably
heard this silly nonsense the conservatives r putting out that Hillary got all the questions way n advance. I would b willing to bet that there is a fair chance that the Clinton people have started this rumor hoping the Trump people would take the bait and then once again start talking it up only to b made fools again like with the birther issue.
Not likely. NBC soft pedaled for her. Same difference.
Hillary’s good friend, Lester, played his role well.
Stump Trump and lob some chest high fat pitches to Hillary to knock out of the park.
Good job, Lester. You’re a team player. You keep your anchor job.
Lestet the Molester. Did you catch the snub by Trump walking right past Lestet’s handskake attempt when the candidates were introduced?
No. I didn’t notice that. But that’s why I love Trump. He’s not big on social decorum. And if he doesn’t like you he makes in painfully clear. We don’t need another diplomat in the White House. Diplomats only get in the way of solutions. I bet you would never catch Trump kissing some garb-headed Saudi prince on both cheeks – on either side of his body.
CzarChasm Reigns said:
Right: 99% of us saw Trump shake Lester’s hand after Hillary did.
He’s just slower than Hillary.
CzarChasm Reigns said:
“‘I thought Lester did a great job. Honestly, I thought Lester did a great job,’ Trump told CNNMoney shortly after the debate was over.”
And “When asked if the questions had been fair, Trump replied: ‘Yeah, I thought it was very fair.'”
Selected quotes from “Donald Trump: ‘Lester Holt did a great job'”
But I understand your reluctance to believe anything Trump says:
“‘No, no sniffles, no,’ Trump said. ‘You know, the mic was very bad, but maybe it was good enough to hear breathing. But there was no sniffles. I have no allergy.'”
Selected quote from “Trump: I didn’t sniffle at the first debate”
At the risk of being accused of being called a ‘racist’ by Hillary for implying that a black guy might have been her ‘shill’ Trump likely let it go.
But if you watched the same debate that I watched you would have to concur that Holt gave Hillary an undeniable advantage in the debate by both the questions asked and the manner he followed up on the candidate’s answers.
It was Stump Trump night and Shill for Hill. No mistake about it.
But perhaps you watched a different debate than I.
CzarChasm Reigns said:
People tend to see what they want to see.
I merely posted what Trump said.
Do they matter?
That is the real question.
This is politics. There is not room for reality.
It must be raining sarcasm. Get a grip, troll. The bought-and-paid-for media have had it in for Trump right from the get-go, while Lady Corruption gets a free ride. Waiting on WikiLeaks.
Lester’s a shill
But isn’t this the way it always goes?
Far off into the future optimism abounds.
But as the timeline shrinks pessimism rears it’s ugly head.
And then when the final number finally gets released it’s like having a bucketful of ice water dumped over your head.
Anything to eliminate the possibility of an interest rate hike which would detonate the debt-laden economy.
This is not hard to figure out. Follow the bouncing ball. Wash, rinse and air dry….repeat.
Follow the bouncing ball.
Follow the 3 month US Treasury rate. Once it begins a resolute ascent, the Fed funds rate is sure to follow. Prechter; see September 2016 Elliott Wave Theorist.
They have been playing the same game for 2 years now.
The Fed (enabled by the political system) has been kicking that dented old can down Bubble Street far longer than that. Only a matter of time before they give it one final nice hard boot and it breaks into a million pieces – pieces so small nobody will be able to pick them up.
Kabuki Theater at it’s finest. One final performance. Grab your reserved seat. No refunds.
We have to vote out all incumbents!
The vote to overturn Obama’s veto was pure ELECTIONEERING.
By allowing Americans to sue the Saudi Government opens the door to American troops being brought before the international criminal courts.
Expect American troops to question all orders and become ineffective.
For the Saudi’s they simply sell all U.S. assets to prevent any recovery.
For other countries it depends on if they could be sued, sell all U.S. assets or if they sue the U.S., causing U.S. firms to sell their foreign assets.
A number of ballot measures to benefit Veterans have been introduced, all could have been done decades ago. pure ELECTIONEERING.
We have the most corrupt public officials in the Free World.
We need to throw all the bums out. Even Bernie has SOLD OUT.
Hillary will win, so focus on all the down ballot races. There is where TRUE CHANGE can happen.
Down ballot is where the action needs to be.
Evidently there are protections for US troops if they have service agreements with the countries they are in and the bill can be reversed if any negative blow back occurs.
Further, if Hillary wins, down ticket matters NOT. As we saw with Obama, the will of the people as expressed by the election of their conservative representatives was void of effect. The elected representatives folded like a cheap suit and Obama’s will was projected with at most some slight moderation. Also, through his executive actions and signing orders, and in many other cases simply at his suggestion, laws were ignored and regulations imposed with NO resistance from the courts or anyone else.
At this point the ONLY thing that matters is keeping Hillary out. Between her authoritarian agendas and her supreme court nominations there will be no stopping her. It is very apparent that she will never be held accountable for ANYTHING, and this knowledge alone makes her the most dangerous person in the WORLD.
Presidents are not elected by popular vote. You vote for a slate of electors pledged to a candidate. The math clearly indicates that after Hillary unleashes Billions to fund attack ads, the outcome will be she wins. She has the Main Stream Media, the traditional press, the Democratic Establishment, the Republican Establishment, and the money to guarantee a win.
Yes she is the most dangerous person in the World and the American voter is the most ignorant.
Countries do not wait for the dust to settle on what Congress has done. Rather they act and we will suffer blowback.
Saudi Arabia is already forming a collection of Muslim states against U.S. economic interests in retaliation.
I would suggest that her massive negative advertising pushing her over the top, it may bury her. Everything they have done to destroy Trump seems to have made him stronger. Do not underestimate the urge to purge from the American people. There is half of the population that does not traditionally vote, and I believe many of them do not vote because they see only futility in it, something Trump offers a contrast to. They are not polled because they are not seen a likely voters. We can see through the many public appearances that Trump has substantially more enthusiastic followers.
Our biggest threat in this election is not Hillary’s campaign, but fraud.
If Trump wins, his main problem will be a federal bureaucracy now stuffed with Zioglobalist traitors who will sit on their hands and/or conspire to eliminate him if he attempts to reinvigorate the system with any semblance of fairness and decency. Wholesale purges of personnel in the CIA, FBI, and military, together with replacement of our disloyal Senators and Congressmen with third party alternatives will be a good and necessary beginning. The Federal Reserve must be functionally decapitated, the sooner the better.
Truth seeker said:
IMO If Trump wins sinister forces will come together, financed by people like George Soros, to bring down his presidency no matter what the cost to our country. Our country’s culture is saturated with drugs, violence, pornography, corruption and debt and there is absolutely no respect for traditional values r the rule of law. Deconstructionism is a dark philosophy being taught that rejects all historical and traditional values or objective reality or truth. If one wants to understand what I’m trying to say here u can read something closely related in CS Lewis 7 page missive “The Poison of Subjectivism”. Google it. Read it. It is very powerful and I think any of you will b able to understand it well enough to c the ominous forces our country is facing here.