Border skirmishes between India and Pakistan have been going on for years. But with social mood darkening everywhere, and with India making the claim ‘Significant casualties’ inflicted on ‘launch pads’ for militant attacks, one can’t help but wonder when this erupts in a major way.
The Financial Times reports India launches ‘surgical strikes’ on Pakistan terror targets.
India said it had carried out “surgical strikes” overnight across its disputed border with Pakistan to target groups of militants that were allegedly planning to carry out terror attacks on Indian territory.
In a briefing, Lt Gen Ranvir Singh said the strike — which was carried out along the line of control that divides the disputed Kashmir province between India and Pakistan — had inflicted “significant casualties” on what he described as “launch pads” for terrorism.
Lt Gen Singh said the army had acted on “specific and credible” information that “terrorist teams had positioned themselves at launch pads along the line of control with an aim to carry out infiltration in terrorist strikes in Jammu and Kashmir” and various other parts of the country.
However, Pakistan’s army said there had been no surgical strikes, just heavy Indian firing, to which Pakistani forces responded in kind.
The action — and the highly publicised way in which it has been announced — comes a fortnight after militants attacked an Indian military base at Uri, killing 18 Indian soldiers. New Delhi has publicly blamed the attack on Pakistan.
Everything is under control. A quick check shows the dollar is quiet, the stock market is quiet, and gold is quiet.
It’s just two nuclear armed states fighting over borders and religious beliefs. What can possibly go wrong in this M.A.D. world?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
You can’t blame the frog for leaping out of the pot of hot water.
What is better, to wait until the boiling point is reached?
Crysangle – your second link took me to an article entitled “The New Cold War”.
OMG, what a piece of propaganda! Russia is the aggressor? Not according to actual respected journalists.
That Samantha Powers reminds me of one of those crazy cheerleader mothers who kills off or cripples her daughter’s opposition, says anything to justify a “win”.
Recently I read an article that said to expect things to heat up in Pakistan because, if you look at a map, the U.S. wants to disrupt the whole area from Israel to India. It’s easier to loot when you have chaos and your own puppets in place.
It is not the despised Amreeka that is looting Pakistan, though. Check out the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and you will realize that the Chinese have not merely looted Pakistan, but bought it outright.
This is not to absolve the governing class of Pakistan from the blame of having sold their country, but the weather IS better in Switzerland.
Kautilya – “…the Chinese have not merely looted Pakistan, but bought it outright.” Pakistan too? Pakistan? The Chinese are everywhere. What haven’t they bought? And with monopoly money.
As you said, our leaders have sold out their countries, and all for a fistful of dollars. Did the Pakistani elite fly off to Switzerland with their ill-gotten loot?
To translate from Urdu, they have one leg in Switzerland (or alternatively, Dubai and/or UK), and one in Pakistan. If serious trouble erupts (that can affect them), they will be in a position to say Sayonara to Pakistan at a moment’s notice without affecting their lifestyles one bit.
The only reason they are still sticking around in Pakistan is to collect more loot.
Kautilya – thanks for the reply. Your posts have been very interesting. Nice to have some insight into what’s going on over there. Thanks.
I placed it only because it keeps relatively concise but up to date.
US Russia – I don’t call either blameless, the US has a more agressive policy, Russia is voluntarily playing into it, though it was left with few choices. That would be because Russia lacked the integrity to hold its positions originally. A mess which the ‘adventurous’ on each side will too willingly use to their own advantage.
Crysangle – oh, come on, Russia has bent over backwards. They’re being encroached upon, blamed for the downing of MH-17, blamed for practically everything. Same with Assad. You are right about being left with “few choices”.
Where Russia had deferred to the West, pandered to it, it will now set itself to taking care of business.
What do you mean by “Russia lacked the integrity to hold its positions originally”? What positions?
I think there will be a few more days of skirmishes before it cools down. Pakistan is a much smaller military power than India but since they have nukes, it equalizes the situation. Once it has nukes, even a second-rate military power can keep a much stronger country at bay.
No reason to escalate, but then we don’t know what anyone is thinking, sh*t happens. In the meantime :
India has bigger and better nukes and delivery systems….
It doesn’t matter how sophisticated the nuke systems are. Even if a country has a few crude nukes, it can stave off a more superior military power.
No one wants to be first to fire nukes. Besides, India is so big compared to Pakistan that it could absorb a hit and wipe out all of Pakistan and Afghanistan in retaliatory strikes. Once India realizes that she has a free hand conventionally, this will occur more frequently and the border will calm down. I also suspect that we will soon see another military coup in Pakistan.
Stuki Moi said:
Those in Pakistan who are causing trouble along the India border, are at best marginally beholden to the Pakistani national government. They’d like nothing more than some form of Pakistani Spring (or honestly, if not politically correct, an excuse to conquer, rape, pillage and blow stuff up, just because…). The Indian ruling class knows that. In public, they may pretend otherwise, to preserve the quaint colonial notion of monolithic, representative national governments in control of their populations, and of proper channels of diplomatic communications. But the last thing both the Indian and Pakistani government wants, is for the latter to weaken to the point where they are no longer able to serve as primary cushion and bulwark against the crazies.
As long as the Soviets, then the US kept/keeps a presence in Afghanistan, it seems both Pakistan and India are more than happy to gently nudge the guerillas’ fervor to focus on Great Satan. If/once that fails or is no longer enough to maintain some form of detente, who the heck knows what will happen to Pakistan. Probably, like you mentioned, another coup. Then another. Then another. With increasing frequency and desperation, as it becomes harder and harder for the national military to stay of top of things. And as their increasingly heavy handed attempts to do so, ends up antagonizing a greater and greater share of the population.
Scary thing is, Turkey is going the same way. Turkey and Pakistan both (Like Somalia) serve as bookends and boundaries of the world’s undisputed pressure cooker. The regimes in the center, have come to realize their only hope for survival, is to try to divert the pressure away from themselves, and towards the edges and the “outside”. It’s not a choice on their behalf, but rather a matter of survival. So the bookends are becoming more and more radicalized and explosive.
The distinction between ‘the crazies’ on one hand and the Pakistani military on the other has been getting blurred for well over 3 decades now – long enough to wonder if that distinction even exists anymore. The lower cadre personnel are heavily Islamized / radicalized, but the higher echelons are not without blame in this – it is after all, at the instance of the top brass only that the soldiers are sought to be indoctrinated / motivated by drilling into their heads notions of past glory of Muslim rule in the sub-continent, as well as twisted interpretations of Jihad, Ghazwa-e-Hind etc.
Stuki Moi said:
You’re probably right, but I’m not sure the upper echelons have much of a choice on the mater. Pretty much every regime in the region, is relegated to doing the best they can trying to surf a wave that is getting bigger and bigger, faster and faster, and more and more violent every year.
It’s easy, and more along the Hollywood plotlines most Westerners are have grown up with, to lay blame on a handful of “leaders” and “evil dictators.” As if those really are able to dictate the practical realities on the ground. Rather than simply being relegated to do the best they can to ride the bull for as long as they can manage to hold on. Perhaps hoping the bull eventually tires, or finds something else to focus on.
There are good reasons why the countries surrounding Afghanistan and the surrounding mountainous regions have rarely/ever bothered to try to control the place. It’s just not worth the hassle. The geography is insurmountable, the culture bred of such a geography is simply not one of voluntary submission to anyone, or even any thing, anytime, ever. And there are nothing of value to justify the ridiculous expense in life and treasure required to sorta-kinda pretend to maintain some sort of control there.
Leaving the only ones stupid and foolhardy enough to try, remote outsiders. The British, The Russians and now the Americans. When the Russians invaded, and then, fatally, the Arab and Western worlds decided to “come to their rescue,” the resulting mixture of a faint Islamic overlay on top of what is pretty much entrenched, millennia old warrior cultures, turned out to be more than any of the original outside parties could handle. And once that cat was out of the bag, fat chance getting it back in there. India and Pakistan have lived with a much more contained version since even before then, but those guys are now emboldened by having become part of something much bigger as well.
The Middle east have millions of largely disenfranchised young people. With little in the way of a future to look forward to if they continue along the path laid out for them by the various secular regimes that ruled there post oil. And, as much as PC dogma clings to Peace, as in absence of physical skirmish, as some sort of universal dream for everyone; history shows quite clearly that the Way of the Warrior holds immense appeal to young men. And that those men who pursue it, hold immense appeal to young women…. Including increasing numbers of pale skinned, also there increasingly disenfranchised, fair skinned European ones.
The “genius” of some enterprising Mullahs, of providing just enough Islamic cover for the uprisings and resulting bloodshed, instead of dismissing it as outdated barbary the way the West is doing, is just lubrication for the rails the runaway is barrelling down.
The spasms of Erdogan in Turkey earlier, and his, probably borne out of desperation, flirting on/off with Russia, is pretty good indication that his administration is not sitting so pretty anymore, either. But for now, Pakistan to the East, and Turkey to the West, is still serving as some form of bulwark between the Middle East and two economically prosperous but ideologically “soft” world’s on either end. And as a result, they’ll probably both be torn apart, by the strains they will be forced to bear.
“It’s easy, and more along the Hollywood plotlines most Westerners are have grown up with, to lay blame on a handful of “leaders” and “evil dictators.””
My point is that, having been started by a few leaders for short-term gains (beginning with General Zia-ul-Haq during the anti-Soviet Jihad in Afghanistan, to Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto creating the Taliban in the 90’s, and on and on), the process of radicalization and fanaticism has spread so deep and wide in the Pakistani society that it is now impossible for the ‘leaders’ to pull back and reverse course. Policy-wise, they have painted themselves into a corner.
Another (not insignificant) advantage of continuing with the current policy of fanning the flames is that it keeps the dough rolling in – from the Middle East to promote Jihad, and from the West to fight terrorism. As the saying goes, they have a finger in every pie.
The attack is in retaliation of the armed attack by Pakistan on Indian army camp base.The mood in the country was so worse – getting inflicted by a rouge nation from time to time and just sitting patiently – calling peace and doing dialogues. This has changed. – and changed for ever. Pakistan is a rouge nation with no accountability – weak democracy – military enjoying power with puppet government. It was hitting India back and forth – the pain would be like terrorist attack which US would face.
“It’s just two nuclear armed states fighting over borders and religious beliefs. What can possibly go wrong in this M.A.D. world?”
And Mish this is just a retaliation – if USA would be in our place, it would have done this quite earlier and faster.
Mission Accomplished said:
There’s got to be a medical tourism joke in there somewhere.
Pakistan’s military couldn’t find Osama Bin Laden hiding on their front lawn — or alternatively there was so much division within Pakistan’s military their right hand wouldn’t communicate with their left.
India’s military is much much bigger; India’s economy is much bigger (allowing them to buy more weapons from Russia, China and the warmongers in DC & Paris).
Speaking of China, China won’t allow the extremists in Islamabad to screw up their One Road, One Belt initiative. Uighers are already high up on Beijing’s “not friends” list; the Pushtun in Pakistan’s semi-autonomous won’t get Chinese support (the Pushtun form most of Pakistan’s military ranks).
Pakistan without Saudi financial support (see oil prices, etc) is unlikely to even hold itself together. The most likely outcome for Pakistan is another coup in Islamabad, followed by Pakistan breaking apart into 1000 warring factions (and this outcome is likely no matter what India does or doesn’t do).
Currently, Pakistan is 1000 warring factions held together with bribes financed by Saudi oil money. There is nothing holding Pakistan together anymore.
Excellent post, but I must offer the correction that Punjabi’s account for some 72% of Pakistan’s army.
Also, there is good reason to believe that the Pakistani military couldn’t find OBL on their front lawn because they were the one hiding him there.
But these 2 points apart, great post.
My spelling is probably wrong — but aren’t the people in the semi-autonomous region “pushtu” (you wrote they are punjabi?). Whatever the proper label for those peoples, it is my understanding that they are the overwhelming majority of Pakistan’s military? (you wrote ~72%, I had heard a number slightly north of 80% — but whatever the exact percentage…)
You wrote that Pakistan’s military couldn’t find OBL on their front lawn because “they” were hiding him there… which implies that there is a cohesive, unified “they” to do the hiding. Even if 100% of the persons in Abottabad was Pushtu / Panjabi, it seems like a rather difficult secret to keep. I made the suggestion that Pakistan’s military isn’t all on the same page — factions within the military probably supported OBL / wanted to hide him. But wouldn’t other factions want to collect the USD25mm reward, gain political influence, etc? (not caring about OBL one way or the other, just wanting to gain leverage for their own group within Pakistani politics)?
Nit picking on my part, mostly because I am trying to better understand things in southeast Asia.
It seems Pakistan is doomed without Saudi bribe money to pacify the competing factions
Pushtu is very different from Punjabi – they are two distinctly different ethnicities, with different language & cultures.
Pashtu (spelling has many variations) lands are in the north-western part of Pakistan as well as across the Durand Line in Afghanistan (not calling it a border as Afghanistan has never accepted it as one). That Line is a subject in itself.
While there are many Pashtu in the Pakistani army (including officers up to General’s rank – one retired Pashtu General Nasirullah Babar was a federal minister in Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s cabinet in the early ’90’s and famously led the very first Taliban charge into Afghanistan), the army is predominantly Punjabi.
While I agree that there are many factions in the Pak army vying for supremacy, support for Islamism and the idea of conquest through Jihad permeates that institution now, and so runs through all factions as a kind of unifying thread. Betraying OBL would be unthinkable for an institution that not only supports Jihad whole-heartedly, but in fact sees itself as a co-founder of and pivotal to Jihad in the modern times.
The journalist Tim McGirk did a special report in Time & National Geographic in 2008 (around the time of US elections) wherein he quoted retired General Yahya Effendi as saying this:
“OBL is an Islamic hero. Whoever betrays him, well, his life won’t be worth an onion.”
Ron J said:
“What can possibly go wrong in this M.A.D. world?”
Trying to pick a war with Russia.
“‘May you live in interesting times’ is an English expression purported to be a translation of a traditional Chinese curse. Despite being so common in English as to be known as ‘the Chinese curse’, the saying is apocryphal, and no actual Chinese source has ever been produced.”
Tom Clancy’s recent “Duty and Honor” misses out on the most interesting current events. He needs to write about an India/Pakistan conflict somehow escalating into a NATO/Russia war via Syria and/or the Ukraine.
What is the major factor that makes dangerous situations explode? Stress. What is the major most ever present stress on individuals and nations? Lack of economic flow and prosperity. What keeps economic flow and prosperity in force? Excessive Debt and its continual build up. Eliminate excess debt and permanently prevent its build up. This is the key to individual freedom and systemic free flowingness.
A military conflict between India and Pakistan would have a very critical impact on fight for control of global financial system between the and China and Russia. Even a resumption of hostilities significant enough to deter economic investment in Pakistan would have a profound impact.
What remains to be seen is if Pakistan takes the bait and responds. China and Russia will be pressing Pakistan not to risk a military conflict that will jeopardize its economic future. Russia still has a great deal of leverage with India, and the Russians will try to convince the Indians that a military conflict would sabotage their economic future. So it remains to be seen if this situation escalates.
The Obama administration undoubtedly believes that renewed conflict advances their two primary economic objectives: 1) stopping the development of China’s Silk Road project and 2) passage of the TPP. Development of the Pakistan economic corridor is critical to the development of the Silk Road. China wants to be able to develop the rich resources in Balochistan.
China and Russia are now working on a free trade agreement with India, Pakistan and the ASEAN nations. Asian economic growth would be fueled by development of the Pakistan economic corridor and the free trade agreement. Should this collapse, the US has a much better chance of passing the TPP. India and China have had increased tensions over China’s investment in Pakistan, and the Obama administration has seems to have been able to use this tension to its advantage.
But India needs to tread carefully here. Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan are now developing an economic corridor through the Caspian to India and the rest of Asia. Completion of this corridor will make trade with Asia faster and far less expensive. This corridor would be to India’s economic advantage: Indians businesses would have less cost to reach Iranian and Russian markets. The United States’ strategic interest is in halting the development of this corridor. The Russians will undoubtedly be raising this point with the Indians.
There is a very intense fight for capital right now between America and China. America could attract capital without raising interest rates if 1) Europe has to bail out Deutsche Bank and the Italian banks and 2) the development of the Pakistan economic corridor can be stopped.
This may be an important move on the global strategic chessboard. But the Pakistanis may keep their eye on the prize and not respond.
CzarChasm Reigns said:
“India also announced it will maximize its water withdrawals under the 1960 Indus Water Treaty to the legal limit, thereby squeezing Pakistan, which has been plagued by drought and electricity shortages. It also signaled it could abrogate the treaty entirely. Pakistan subsequently warned it would view the water treaty’s abrogation as an ‘act of war.’”
“As relations between Washington and Islamabad deteriorate, Pakistan is also considering taking the historically unprecedented step of developing strategic ties with Russia.”
“On Saturday…Russia launched a two-week military drill with Pakistan in a mountainous area in the eastern Punjab province of Pakistan. It involved 200 troops, 70 from Russian and 130 from Pakistan. It was the first time the two countries had ever participated in a joint military exercise and follows on from Moscow’s recent sale of military helicopters to Islamabad.”
Selected quotes from “After Kashmir attack, US media threaten to support India in war with Pakistan” http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/09/29/uspa-s29.html
thank goodness India and Pakistan don’t have football teams in the SEC….that could really get ugly.
Surprised to see this topic on your blog (well, not really – you do cover Ukraine etc quite extensively). IMO you are the only Econ/Fin blogger focusing on military / political issues that can significantly impact on the economy. Kudos!
I think this flare-up has the potential to keep simmering & lead up to more disruption. Indian Prime Minister Modi is a no-nonsense guy (unlike the predecessor government that believed in appeasement). E.g. there is also the threat from India to shut off water of 3 major rivers to Pakistan – the rivers originate in / pass through India before entering Pakistan, and supply some 65% of Pakistan’s water.
Pakistan is feeling confident primarily due to the on-going China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project (CPEC), under which China is to invest $46 billion in Pakistan. Starting from the Arabian Sea port of Gwadar on the Baluchistan coast (very close to the Persian Gulf), there is a transportation route going north through Pakistan and the area of Gilgit-Baltistan (part of the area of Kashmir that is under Pakistani control), on to China. Along the way, several infrastructure projects like power generation etc are also planned. If & when fully implemented, this project could well be a game-changer in global geopolitics.
In reality (which has not been shared with the Pakistani public, but is probably with the involvement of the top brass in Pakistan), it is quite likely that the country has essentially been sold to China. In any event, the logic with Pakistani elite is that China would not allow India to cause damage to any part of CPEC. So the Pakistani military will not desist from encouraging / enabling / sending (choose a term based on your opinion) the so-called ‘freedom-fighters’ of Kashmir to infiltrate into the Indian side to engage in skirmishes. Modi will have to walk a fine line, in trying to respond forcefully without igniting a wider conflagration.
BTW, there were reports of a surgical strike exactly like this circulating in India a few days ago (the similarity of details is eerie), but these were not corroborated and assumed to be false. It is interesting that a supposedly false report of a surgical strike, which should have put the Pakistani army on high alert, was followed by an actual surgical strike which the Pak army could not prevent.
The Indian stock index has already suffered a mini-collapse on the news. Please keep an eye on this, it could take an ‘interesting’ turn.
It seems more likely that China views CPEC as “theirs” (belonging to China) — and it is one route (not the only route) to send trains from China to the middle east and southwest Asia. Not to say it is a “safe” route, but I read a Chinese freight train recently pulled into Kabul, Afghanistan
China probably doesn’t want India threatening CPEC in an ideal world…. but equally so, they don’t want the myriad of warring factions inside Pakistan threatening it either. Regardless of their feelings toward Pakistan or India, Chinese military officials would be wary of Pakistani Islamists gaining control over Chinese freight trains/tracks — because it might give the Uighers in western China ideas.
If I were China or Russia (or the two talking with each other), I would sell warring Pakistani factions equal amounts of weapons and hope they amuse each other (instead of threatening Russia and/or China).
Russia would like to sell more naval ships and natural gas to India (and they have said as much). Pakistan will never be as big a market for Russia, while Pakistan’s extremist islamists might export problems into Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, and further north.
China wants more export markets (as in 1 billion Indians, 1 billion Indonesians, etc). The historical rivalry between China and India hasn’t led either country to invade the other (border skirmishes are not full scale invasions). New export markets help the Chinese economy, while giving “influence” to contain the dali lama and nepal (note the choice of wording “contain”).
Seems like the latest Pakistan / India mess is really Pakistani factions trying to shake some Saudi purse strings (good luck, see oil price) … and India did a “surgical strike” aimed at reinforcing the status quo
Agreed. China is just too smart to put all its eggs in the Pakistan basket. CPEC is but one of the avenues through which they will extend their dominance over the global economy. But the key issue is that, as you say, China views CPEC as ‘theirs’, Pakistan as a sovereign country has already been sold to China, although it will take a while for this fact to become apparent.
Russia’s friendly relationship with India goes back decades, all the way back to independence in 1947. They wouldn’t want to compromise that relationship for the sake of Pakistan, a country which has changed allegiances with disturbing frequency.
BTW Indonesia population is closer to 300 million than to 1 billion.
“It’s just two nuclear armed states fighting over borders and religious beliefs”
The fact that both have nukes should keep them from attacking one another except for small incidences like this.
Russia has had good relations with India. The recent joint maneuvers between Russia and Pakistan are a sign that both seek to lessen tensions. Russia might be even seeking to become an intermediary between India and Pakistan. Who needs war besides neocons?
“Who needs war besides neocons?”
Short answer – Pakistani Generals.
When the so-called ‘elections’ in 1965 created problems for General Ayub Khan, he started a war with India (Operation Gibraltar & Operation Grand Slam).
When the Bengalis of East Pakistan got restive and resisted atrocities of Pakistani army, General Yahya Khan started a general war in the Punjab / Kashmir sectors.
When General Musharraf thought he was a better patriot than the elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, he infiltrated in the Kargil area of Indian Kashmir and almost started a general war between two nuclear-armed countries.
In each instance, Pakistan had to eat crow, but that never seems to bother the Generals. So never underestimate the capacity of Pakistani generals to shoot themselves in the foot.
Pakistan cannot win a war with India, nuclear or otherwise. The Pakistani generals must know this. The Pakistani people probably don’t know or don’t care.
That would seem logical, but sadly the reality is otherwise.
I saw a Pakistani TV program discussing the Kargil misadventure, and the Pakistani journalist (I forget her name – Jasmine something) recounted General Javed Hassan’s reply to her question as to what preparations had been made to face the Indian counter-attack – his reply translates as, “These (i.e. Indians) are traders, they won’t fight.” Actually, it sounds a lot worse in Urdu, as the term ‘baniya’, although referring to the (Hindu) trader caste, is used with pejorative connotations in Pakistan.
His original words were – “Yeh Baniye hain, yeh nahin ladenge.” The very definition of stupidity, given the evidence of the 1971 war, which the Indians won decisively in just 17 days.
“When the so-called ‘elections’ in 1965 created problems for General Ayub Khan, he started a war with India (Operation Gibraltar & Operation Grand Slam).”
Things have changed since 1965. India joined the nuclear club in 1974. Pakistan joined some time during the ’90s.
That didn’t stop General Musharraf from trying his luck in Kargil in 1999. By then both countries were nuclear-armed.
All this happening while US and Russian talks over Syria are breaking down.
The scary part is that both of these back-world nations have nukes. I wonder who gave them the recipes and materials necessary to construct said nukes? Take 3 guesses. The first 2 don’t count. 😉
All it would take is for one garb-headed religious nut in charge to take personal offense to an derogatory comment about Vishnu or Mohammed to set the world afire. Defending the honor or Vishnu or Mohammed supersedes life itself to these religious lunatics.
And once a nuke is fired anywhere in the world it will set off a chain reaction.
My guess is that the first nuke fired won’t come from one of the superpowers. It’ll come from some despot hothead nation where toilets are a luxury.
And given enough time – it’s bound to happen. The atmospheric radiation effect would be enough to doom most of us.
Man is the most dangerous animal on the planet.
I’m delighted that I’m as old as I am.
“All it would take is for one garb-headed religious nut in charge to take personal offense to an derogatory comment about Vishnu or Mohammed to set the world afire. Defending the honor or Vishnu or Mohammed supersedes life itself to these religious lunatics.”
Clearly you don’t know about the Hindu’s. They can’t even agree on one name for God (although every Hindu will tell you that there is only one God – just that HIS one God has the name Vishnu, or Shiva, or… there are dozens to choose from). Hell, they can’t even agree on the gender – half of them worship the female form.
So getting a Hindu society as riled up about a supposed affront to their deity as a Muslim society is about even the smallest affront (whether real, perceived, imagined, rumored or assumed) to Allah or Mohammed is well nigh impossible.
James Greenberg said:
I can think of no quicker and surer way to improve the world than Pakistan and India mutually annihilating each other. Sadly, it won’t happen. We’re stuck with them forever.
good idea, but I’d name different nations.
James Greenberg said:
So name them!
“A 2008 study by Michael J. Mills and coauthors, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that a nuclear weapons exchange between Pakistan and India using their current arsenals could create a near-global ozone hole, triggering human health problems and causing environmental damage for at least a decade. The computer-modeling study looked at a nuclear war between the two countries involving 50 Hiroshima-sized nuclear devices on each side, producing massive urban fires and lofting as much as five million metric tons of soot about 50 miles (80 km) into the mesosphere. The soot would absorb enough solar radiation to heat surrounding gases, causing a series of surface chemistry reactions that would break down the stratospheric ozone layer protecting Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation.”
Is that the real global warming threat?
Global warming is just an excuse to raise more and more taxes to pay for more and more “studies”, more and more self-annointed “experts” to fly around in petroleum powered private jets to whine about nonsense.
Every single global political fraud arrived at the Paris tax and spend (environmental?) conference on jet fuel (each had LOTS of private planes), followed by jet fuel powered helicopters, followed by gasoline powered armor plated limos (with MPG ratings lower than a Hummer truck).
The size of political entourages (thousands of people for each and every politician) is obscene. Does Obama really need an 18 wheeler with communication gear in Paris, which is supposedly a NATO ally? Does he need another 18 wheeler with a mobile surgical suite? Does France not have hospitals? Hundreds of secret service agents, hundreds of “advisors” — every one of which arrives in armored cars powered by gasoline (after flying in jet fuel powered planes).
And not one of these losers pays any taxes on the fuel, the five star meals, the hotel floors (they take whole floors, not rooms). The private “foundations” like the Clinton fund don’t pay any taxes either. Everything is expensed to the suckers who pay taxes and pay charities.
You aren’t helping the environment Winston. You are helping con-artists live a lifestyle you will never have, paid for with your taxes and charity. You are a sucker.
Global warming is fraud, pure and simple.
They won’t nuke each other since this is not an existential conflict. Also, the victor would not enjoy the spoils of a nuclear war.
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Mahesh Mumbaikar said:
Mish and others ,
A liberal Indian perspective trying to make a couple of points.
1. The Uri attack *DID* test the resolve of Indian state. In fact, me thinks they were designed for that. The audacity of attack had it written all over. Another thing, these don’t appear native kashmiri retaliation. Not even by long shot. The act was well planned militarily that left Indian state with very less options than to “transactionally respond”.
2. The “transactional response” was well calibrated and did get into an unknown territory. More so by means of propaganda than the actual action. In fact, the actual action – going by military public statement – even supplemented a official notification to Pakistani armed forces about the “strikes”. So, well, a “process” was followed.
3. Interestingly, in a overlapping period Russia conducted a small military exercise with a small Pakistani army unit. A gesture that potentially signaled its intent to be involved – IMHO as stabilizing force – should things flare up further.
4. In another interesting move, China signaled “overt dis-interest” in the skirmish. At the same time, a high level meeting between Chinese and Indian officials – after the URI attacks – concluded with both sides “appreciating and understanding” each others concerns. If one were to read the news carefully, it translated to “alright then – no problems between us , folks”.
5. Russia might just have pre-empted US moves to open yet another front against its allies (read China) in another part of world with those military exercises.
6. US appears to be losing its relevance – in fact very fast – in this part of world. It can neither contain Pakistani Military, nor its various military factions that promote jihad and definitely not India.
7. China has a much bigger problem at hand. Largely because a heavily militarized Pakistani polity goes against its own interests of establishing a pan-Asian trade that counters US presence, the other part being – a good part of Pakistani military still has good leverage points enjoyed by US. Russian military exercise needs to be viewed in this context too.
8. India will again be subjected more URI like attacks , forcing to up ots ante even more. Should Indian response become “regular” – China will have lost its leverage as the hardliner militarization will start dominating Pakistan again , de-focusing it from “economics”. China may gain some as a military hardware supplier , but I guess that is not what they are aiming for.
9. US , France et al will gain too as arms suppliers but , again, that is purely a “side effect”..
10. Both the Indian state and Pakistani army will be confronting each other for quite some time – a horrible game where they will be expected to “transactionaly respond” to each other in a narrative not exactly and entirely authored by them.
Sorry to say, but it looks dismal no matter how you look at it. And , in the meantime, the climate change will continue to wreak havoc.
Truth seeker said:
Mish u sure r whipping out a whole lot of info. here lately. U know u don’t have to hire a bunch of robots to try to keep up with the wild and crazy bunch over at zero hedge.