Import prices are up 0.1% matching the Econoday Consensus estimate in an unusually wide range of estimates from -0.3% to +0.4%.
Export prices rose 0.3% vs.a consensus 0.1%. This may boost third quarter GDP estimate slightly.
Progress is the theme in September’s import & export price report where emerging pressures may be appearing. Import prices rose 0.1 percent in the month with export prices up 0.3 percent. And year-on-year rates are finally coming up for air, at only minus 1.1 percent for import prices which is the best showing since August 2014. The year-on-year rate for export prices is minus 1.5 percent for their best showing since October 2014.
Petroleum prices, which have been pulling down import prices for the last two years, rose 1.2 percent in the month to narrow this year-on-year decline to a modest looking 2.4 percent which is down from the low double digits in the last report. But excluding petroleum, import prices didn’t show any life at all, unchanged though the year-on-year rate did improve 1 tenth to minus 0.8 percent. On the export side, farm products fell 1.0 percent in the month for a year-on-year rate of minus 3.2 percent. But non-agricultural prices, in a clear plus, rose 0.4 percent with the year-on-year rate improving 8 tenths to minus 1.4 percent.
This report backs Federal Reserve expectations that weakness in import prices is a fading negative for the inflation outlook. Producer prices will be posted tomorrow with marginal improvement the expectation, at least for the headline.
Import Prices Month-Over-Month and Year-Over Year
Export Prices Month-Over-Month and Year-Over Year
Progress?
The Econoday robot as do those in academic wonderland call rising prices progress. Non-robots and those living in the real world would prefer their paychecks go further.
Import prices are still down 1.1% from a year ago and if oil takes another swoon may stay there a while.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Splendid,splendid, splendid!
The standard of living of the average American is getting crushed at an even faster rate!
To which the average American will undoubtedly, true to form, respond by cheering for Massa Gommiment to grow even bigger and enact even more inane programs, to keep Little Miss Average safe from all the scary guys: The Economii, The Maaaarket, The Muxicans and Chineeeese, The Russians and the scariest of all, The Mooslim Viirgins… Not to forget the scariest of the scariest, The Really Bad Guy: The Finaaancial Colllaaapppse!!!!
Only if Hillary wins. Trump will bring chaos. I vote for chaos, as long as no nukes are involved.We need to throw the bums out, and I mean the shadow people, none of whom can survive the glare of sunlight. Markets can fix themselves.
Import MIX is also in play here – we know INEXPENSIVE apparel is DOWN in volume, that leaves MORE EXPENSIVE things making a bigger percentage of the volume,
By the way Mike – down on Topsail for the week, gorgeous weather!! Hurricane had no impact whatsoever here, devastated inland.
“This report backs Federal Reserve expectations that weakness in import prices is a fading negative for the inflation outlook.”
Really?
No matter how many “experts” call for the dollar’s imminent demise (the past couple of years) … it keeps hanging in there. King Dollar staging ANOTHER comeback. DXY > 97. A few percent higher than back in the Spring when much of (non petroleum) the imports in this report ordered. Higher dollar will push down import prices down.
Meanwhile, just waiting for the problems in China to again be front page news. Further devaluation looms. China’s #1 global export will be DEFLATION.
Mexico and Japan devalued a few days ago too.
World trade declining due to massive financial repression and the hunt for taxes…https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/when-the-back-office-becomes-bigger-than-the-front-office-it-is-time-to-die/
“Trump Destroyed Trump”
We … STILL … got ourselves a Ballgame … if the first POST second debate polls are anywhere near accurate.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
Bring on deflation. Deflation is a blessing for shoppers.
We live in a world created for profit and Big business interest… We are consumers and producers. The word human being is no longer part of our vernacular and is the lasting tragedy of our modern era.
It’s not over until the fat lady sings. By Stephen Lendman:
“Was the entire campaign from its onset meaningless theater? Hillary was chosen DNC nominee before it began, Sanders going along for an extended 15-minutes of notoriety, little more than a shameless Hillary puppet after endorsing her for whatever special favors gotten in return, showing he’s as corrupt as America’s entire political establishment.
Even Ralph Nader turned on Trump, calling him a “betrayer in chief,” shamelessly supporting Hillary, the most ruthlessly dangerous presidential aspirant in US history.
He disgracefully ignored the menace she represents, failed to explain America’s deplorable political process too debauched to fix, voters having no say on how they’re governed or by whom.
Governance exclusively serving wealth, power and privilege is what politics in America is all about – no matter who holds top positions. They’re all cut from the same dirty cloth – Republicans like Democrats on all issues mattering most.
Nader understands. So why didn’t he explain, focusing his ire only on Trump, giving Hillary a pass, despite her deplorable public record since the 1990s.
Isn’t that enough to disqualify her from holding any public office? Letting her become head of state with her finger on the nuclear trigger, eager to squeeze it, is unthinkable.
Sunday editions of The New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal online, and pro-Hillary broadsheets nationwide are on the warpath, practically demanding Trump bow out – unheard of in US presidential politics, reaching for despicable new depths.
The latest uproar is over his lewd comments, released on videotape. Sleaze isn’t usually a political issue. Making it one might force half the Congress to step down – and correct the record on numerous past presidents guilty of amorous indiscretions.
Interviewed by the Wall Street Journal on Saturday, Trump said there’s “zero chance (he’ll) quit. I never, ever give up,” stressing Hillary is “a horribly flawed candidate.”
She’s guilty of war crimes, racketeering and perjury. She supports monied interests exclusively over popular ones. She’s disdainful of middle class values, uncaring about America’s most disadvantaged.
Most disturbing is the threat, maybe likelihood, of nuclear war with her, as president, able to launch it extrajudicially.
What matters more – Trump sleaze and everything else disreputable about him or saving humanity from possible annihilation? An easy choice in November.”
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2016/10/09/if-trump-were-sexually-interested-in-men-it-would-be-politically-incorrect-to-say-anything-about-it/
Sanders, Nader – traitors! I like what he says: if sleaze mattered, half of Congress would have to step down.
What’s it going to be: a polished career criminal/warmonger who could get us all killed, or an unpolished, rough-around-the-edges man who wants to negotiate?
Oh, finally I can pay more for everything. I lost hope I will see inflation reported by government agency in my lifetime.
Oil has one more little push higher before it reverses and heads below $20 bbl.
Copper down about 2.5% today, China effect.
A message.
We should hope for higher import prices and lower domestic prices. What good are cheap imports if we have not jobs that pay enough to buy them?
Do we REALLY think we can keep this massive trade deficit going forever?
Do we think we can continue to export our jobs while importing our consumption in perpetuity?
Do we think we can tax our business to fund our government without it being reflected in higher domestic prices AND continued job loss?
Hello!?
Is there anybody out there? Are we awake yet?
Sounds like the same argument that could be touted with robots doing all the work. They need to figure out how to make robots that pay for them.