Golden Opportunity to Hike in 2014

The Fed had a golden opportunity to hike in 2014.

2nd quarter GDP rose at 4.0% annualized, 3rd quarter rose at 5.0% annualized, and 4th quarter rose at 2.3% annualized.

Instead the Fed was worried about growth, when growth was fine. Where the heck were the dissents for hikes in 2014?


Last Three Quarters

  • 2nd Quarter 2016: 1.4%
  • 1st Quarter 2016 : 0.8%
  • 4th Quarter 2015: 0.9%

At the last FOMC meeting there were three dissents in favor of hikes.

Curiously, the Fed is no longer worried about growth. Instead, some members of the Fed are increasingly worrying over bubbles they have blown.

The Fed does not call them bubbles. They mask concerns by citing leverage as noted in Rate Hike Odds Rise Again: Fed Concerned About Corporate Leverage.

Too Late to Worry

By the time the Fed starts worrying about something, it’s far too late. The damage has already been done.

The Fed is not only late to the rate hike party, it blew numerous bubbles in the meantime.

Leverage Worries or Not …

Mike “Mish” Shedlock