The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model ticked up slightly this week in response to economic data.

In contrast, economic data this week was slightly negative to the FRBNY Nowcast model.

GDPNow 3rd Quarter Forecast: 2.0% — October 19, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.0 percent on October 19, up from 1.9 percent on October 14. The forecast of third-quarter real federal government expenditures growth increased from -0.1 percent to 0.3 percent after Friday afternoon’s Monthly Treasury Statement from the Bureau of the Fiscal Service.

gdpnow-2016-10-19

FRNBY Nowcast Highlights — October 21, 2016

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2016:Q3 and 1.4% for 2016:Q4.
  • Overall this week’s news had a negative effect on the nowcast.
  • The most notable developments were in the housing sector and in regional surveys, in which a mix of positive and negative news largely offset each other.

3rd Quarter Nowcast History

nowcast-2016-10-21a

3rd Quarter Nowcast Detail

nowcast-2016-10-21b

The only solidly positive item this week was building permits.

4th Quarter Nowcast History

nowcast-2016-10-21c

Forecast Synopsis

  • GDPNow 3rd Quarter: 2.0%
  • Nowcast 3rd Quarter: 2.2%
  • Markit 3rd Quarter: 1.0%
  • Nowcast 4th Quarter: 1.4%

The Empire State report was negative and the Philly Fed Report was positive. Neither did much of anything to the Nowcast.

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Mike “Mish” Shedlock