The Advance GDP reading (first estimate) of third quarter GDP comes out tomorrow.

Here’s a recap of six GDP estimates plus a bonus opinion as to what constitutes “solid” GDP growth.

Current Estimates

  • GDPNow 3rd Quarter: 2.1%
  • FRBNY Nowcast 3rd Quarter: 2.2%
  • Markit 3rd Quarter: 1.0%
  • Econoday 3rd quarter consensus: 2.5%
  • Markit 4th quarter: 2.0%
  • FRBNY Nowcast 4th quarter: 1.4%

“Solid” GDP Expected

The Econoday consensus for the first estimate of third-quarter GDP is plus 2.5 percent, a solid rate that what would be the highest in five quarters. Consumer spending is expected to be solid but still down from the second-quarter’s very strong 4.4 percent annualized growth rate. Nonresidential investment was a plus in the second quarter but is expected to be a negative in the third quarter. The GDP price index accelerated sharply in the second quarter reflecting energy prices, to plus 2.3 percent from the second quarter’s plus 1.4 percent but is expected to move sharply lower in the third quarter, to a consensus plus 1.5 percent.

New GDP Definitions

Is 2.5% the new “solid” standard for GDP growth? When did that happen?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock