The latest CPI Release from the BLS shows prices ticked up 0.3% in August from September.
Year-over-year inflation is up 1.5%. We are nearing the Fed’s 2% inflation goal. Inflationists call this “progress”.
Today I ask a simple question “Is the Rise in Price Inflation Transitory?”
Bear in mind, I am talking about how the BLS measures inflation, not actual inflation. Actual inflation is a measure of money supply and credit.
Even price inflation, as reported, is nonsense because medical expenses are seriously understated, and housing is not included in the CPI at all.
More accurately, the actual question I strive to answer today is “Is the rise in price inflation, as measured by the BLS, transitory?”
My answer to that question is “yes”. The reason is energy. From August to September energy commodities were up 5.5% and gasoline 5.8%. Those numbers have reversed.
- Barry Ritholtz Asks “Why Has Inflation Remained Low for So Long?” Mish Asks “Is Inflation Low?”
- Diving Into the Medical CPI: Are Your Medical Expenses Up Only 5% from Year Ago?
- Retail Sales Poised to Suffer on Higher Medical, Rental Inflation
In a foolish attempt to defeat routine consumer price deflation, the Fed has sponsored yet another asset bubble that will bring about damaging asset bubble bust and credit deflation. The BIS would agree.
For discussion, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock