As readers know, I changed my mind on the likelihood of Trump winning following a disastrous first debate. I flipped back to possible, following a Wikileaks disclosure culminating in FBI director James Comey’s decision to reopen the case against Hillary.
My own case for Trump all along had been about social mood. I expected Trump to decisively win the rust belt and he did. My recent mistake was believing polls, rather than my own carefully presented thesis.
Let’s return to my May 23, 2016 article Grim Election Map for Trump? Fox Analyst vs. RCP vs. Mish just for grins (mine) to see how I felt about things back then.
Note: This is an exact repeat of the entire post until a note at the end following a label “New Comments“.
Juan Williams
To win the 270 votes needed to claim victory in the electoral college, Trump will have to keep every single state won by Romney — including Arizona and Georgia — and find 64 more electoral votes somewhere.
The question is where? If Trump holds all the Romney states and carries Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida, he still loses.
“Every preliminary electoral-map forecast this spring paints a bleak picture for Donald Trump in his effort to win the presidency against Hillary Clinton,” Dan Balz recently wrote in the Washington Post.
Balz pointed to separate forecasts from three veteran political handicappers who make the same prediction: Trump is going to get crushed by Clinton in an electoral college landslide.
Larry Sabato, Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg all predict a big Clinton victory. For example, Sabato projects Clinton to win 347 electoral votes to Trump’s 191.
RCP Map Analysis 2016-05-23
What a bunch of hooey. Let’s start with an RCP Tossup Map.
It’s absurd to start with a map of “Romney states”.
Williams’ comment “If Trump holds all the Romney states and carries Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida” is even more ridiculous.
Mish Map Analysis 2016-05-23
I believe Trump will win the rust belt states of Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. If so, Hillary will need a clean sweep of about every remaining state to win.
In the above map, if Trump wins Michigan as I project, all he needs to do is win North Carolina.
Suppose Trump does not win Michigan. Instead, give him North Carolina. In that case, either Virginia or Pennsylvania would put Trump over the top.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania and Ohio (not unlikely actually) I believe it’s pretty clear he will win.
In fact, if Trump carries those states, it’s likely he picks up other swing states moving towards an electoral landslide.
I purposely did not presume a miracle for Trump. I gave him leeway tradeoffs consistent with some things likely to break his way.
A Trump landslide is not impossible.
Landslide Map
A landslide by either party is not my prediction, but it’s quite possible Trump could pull one off, and perhaps even lose the popular vote by a little bit.
The West coast is likely to vote Democratic by a huge margin. So is the Northeast.
If Trump wins the swing states by a tiny bit, he can rack up huge electoral totals while losing other states substantially.
Campaign Slogans
Because she really did not have one, just today Clinton Unveils ‘Stronger Together’ Slogan.
The former first lady and senator launched her campaign last year under the rallying cry, “I’m With Her.” But that message quickly was eclipsed by Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” and Democratic rival Bernie Sanders’ call for political revolution. (Sanders’ slogan is “A Future to Believe In.”)
Clinton then tried to pivot and road-test some anti-Trump slogans after Super Tuesday. Speaking in Miami that night, Clinton sounded the message: “Make America whole.”
She called for “love and kindness,” and a push to “break down barriers” and “build ladders of opportunity.”
Within minutes, Trump was mocking her, asking “what is that all about” and telling supporters: “Make America great again is going to be much better than making America whole again.”
As for whether her new slogan can help, Gravis Marketing President Doug Kaplan said it does serve to at least strike a contrast with Trump.
He said Trump’s “Make America Great Again” works well for the presumptive Republican nominee, and Clinton is trying to counter that.
“It’s a hard message to break down. ‘Make America great’ is a hard thing to tear apart,” he said. “What her goal is, is to show that when Trump’s saying ‘Make America Great Again’ [he] means make America great for some people, not everyone. … Her message is inclusive, not exclusive.”
But Brian Morgenstern, vice president of the Manhattan Republican Party, questioned the tone of Clinton’s new slogan.
“In this time of upheaval and angst, where people are so fired up, her campaign slogan might as well be let’s just calm down, everybody,” he told FoxNews.com’s “Strategy Room.”
Electoral Factors
- I give Trump the rust belt for the same reason I confidently predicted he would carry Indiana in the primary: his trade protectionist policies (that I strongly disagree with).
- Disenfranchised citizens don’t vote. A Gallup Poll shows 81% of Sanders supporters say the “election process is not working”.
- This is not Obama vs. Romney, when young, energetic voters turned out in record numbers. This is 2016 when the main Democratic enthusiasm is for someone who will not win the nomination.
- Trump made a number of response mistakes on abortion and women. But those comments have all been heard, and generally ignored. In contrast, we have not heard the full story on the Clinton Foundation and Hillary’s email server scandal. Those details will not help Hillary.
- The US economy may or may not be in recession, but at best the economy is anemic. Poor conditions favor Trump. Worsening conditions hugely favor Trump.
- Hillary is a warmonger. She may pick up a few Republican crossovers because of it. But she is likely to lose more crossover Democrats votes and independents who are sick of war. Obama promised “change you can believe in”. People believed, but what change did we have?
- Make America Great Again is a fantastic campaign slogan. What does Hillary have? I’m still not sure we know.
New Comments: 2016-11-10
My Base Map had Michigan headed to Trump. I do not know anyone else who saw things that way. I did not have Nevada or Colorado in my base map and both went to Hillary.
My Base Projection was “If Trump wins Michigan as I project, all he needs to do is win North Carolina. … If Trump wins Pennsylvania and Ohio (not unlikely actually) I believe it’s pretty clear he will win. …In fact, if Trump carries those states, it’s likely he picks up other swing states moving towards an electoral landslide.”
My Landslide Map got only Nevada, Virginia, and Wisconsin wrong.
I had it right all along, I just did not stick with it.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I well remember that Mike – I felt the same way. I knew two weeks before the election that things were going Trump’s way, was totally sure the weekend before when I saw the FL and NC early voting numbers.
Give Trump credit – and his team. He ran a MASTERFUL campaign!
We have all suffered our doubts…and still do! But we continue to hope for the best. Those of us who voted for Trump must also accept the responsibility for him, and as such, we need to hold him to his pledges and restrain him from over reach as we had wished we could have done with Obama. Our goal above all things…including our personal ideologies and biases, should be to preserve the constitution…as it was written and originally intended.
For those who would see those boundaries stretched to include so much of what it does not contain, they should pursue the intended path of amendments. We had many of them until it was decided that SCOTUS and individuals such a president and jurists, could arbitrarily decide what a law was to be rather than what it actually SAID. This is an extension of the same perception Obama has held, that if he can’t get congress to act in his interests, he will simply impose or negate certain laws by executive order or signing statement, or in some cases simply informing his departments to simply do his will with NO written authority. THIS must STOP. Regardless of who or what party holds the presidency.
Mike, unfortunately not sticking with it is as good as being wrong. I always felt Trump would win. Six outlets control all the media in this country and they were all on the same ANTI TRUMP bandwagon. Finally the voice of the people has been heard.
And 100% of the mainstream losers, both democrat and republican were WRONG every step of the way since 2014.
Every damn time they were wrong. They were wrong then, and they’re wrong today.
Reject them. Impune them. Mock them. Harass them. Scorn them, and then fire them. They’re dangerous, narcissistic idiots. They deserve neither your attention nor your patronage.
Just like putting your money in a profitable trade but not having the guts to stick with it makes you wrong and without profit, having it “right all along” about the election and not having the guts to stick with it makes you wrong and without credibility. Just live with it and don’t whine.
Who’s whining? I am happy. As for credibility, I got this right about attitudes all along. Hardly anyone else did. Finally, it is likely Trump would have lost had there not been a last-minute Wikileaks and action from Comey. And without a doubt Trump blew the first debate. Those who believe Trump did not blow the first debate or that Comey did not matter are only fooling themselves.
Only the true believers failed to see the improbabilities of a Trump win, but regardless, there was NEVER any other alternative. It was going to be Trump or Clinton, and Clinton was NOT an alternative in my mind. The blatant corruption far outweighed any doubts in Trump, even if he was/is an immoral blowhard.
I’ll give you that Trump did not do well 1st debate.
Where I differ with you – I never put much weight on it … and it occurred waayyy before election. Plenty of time to right the ship. I put much more weight on Trump Stumpin. Very high energy with plenty of packed crowds. One analyst marveled yesterday that Trump won states where he didn’t have a single campaign office.
I’ll even go further saying that “grope tape” did not hurt him that much. Hear me out. Before the tape came out I felt things slipping away from Trump. Trump not being Trump due to uneasy alliance with Establishment Republicans in DC. When tape came out they all dumped him and Trump decided to do what he does best – full throttle Attack ala Patton. Things were definitely trending back his way before Comey.2
Trump considering Hensarling for Sec of Treasury.
I would much prefer him to the Goldman Sachs dude.
IIRC, Obama around Thanksgiving 2008 announced his pick of Tim Geithner (and Summers for Director of the National Economic Council) …. had that sinking feeling before O even took office.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-considering-hensarling-as-treasury-secretary-2016-11-10
The election is over. Here’s what we have to watch now. What happens here means success or failure and it’s the most dangerous path for Trump.
What is Trump’s best quality? Winning.
I do remember that post, Mish, and I knew all along that Trump would run better than Romney in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Wisconsin, but I thought it would be the difference of only losing, lets say, by 3-4% rather than 10%+. I thought that Iowa was Trump’s best chance out of that group followed by Michigan (Bush won Iowa in 2004). I really thought Trump would win the Romney states and flip Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. As it turns out, going for the Rust Belt was the right strategy. I stand in awe of whoever designed that strategy for the Trump Campaign- Clinton did see it coming until the last week, it seems.
“I had it right all along, I just did not stick with it.”
Yup. You also felt pollsters had their reputation to contend with and would be right. Pollsters saw only what Madam wanted them to see. All these guys still blame the people for Voting Brexit and Trump instead of trying to understand the why of it. By the time they do we will probably have a revolution.
The biased stench from the media was overwhelming and I for one was hoping that people would smell it too. Obviously you can never be sure in elections. But I am mighty glad that the Americans joined the Brits in this movement to throw out establishment. I am just waiting for people in Europe to wake up now. In that way this election result is important for the world. Will Japan ever wake up?
The world needs a system that works for all its citizens rather than the present system which works for ONLY elites (remember Munger’s suck it up and cope — let us see who does the coping now) who are feeding on the rest of the citizens using government and regulators as their allies.
Come on Italy and France, it is your turn now. Do not let the world down!
I have been watching the USC/LA Times tracking poll. My gut feel was that Trump would win the election if he was leading by 3%-3.5% in that poll. The final poll was about there and I thought he had a good shot at 50-50.
“I believe Trump will win the rust belt states of Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. If so, Hillary will need a clean sweep of about every remaining state to win.”
That’s a nice call from Mish. Coupled with his own map of May 23, 2016 it is more impressive.
I started to lose faith on Nov 5th, Guy Fawkes Day of all damned things. After the James Comey flip flop it appeared as though maybe it was rigged.
How much effect do you think the Comey re-opening of the investigation have on the election?
It seemed like the RCP averages had Hillary with a comfortable lead until then. On the eve of the election the RCP no toss-up map had Hillary barely squeaking out 272 electoral votes.