A December rate hike is all but baked in the cake after today’s retail sales report. Sales rose a solid 0.8% in October and that is on top of an upward revision from 0.6% to 1.0% for September.

Dollar Basis

retail-sales-2016-11a

Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.

On a US dollar basis the top six sales categories look like this.

  1. Motor Vehicles and Parts: $96,815
  2. Food and Beverage Stores: $59,694
  3. Food Service and Drinking Places: $55,009
  4. General Merchandise Stores: $55,009
  5. Nonstore Retailers: $48,242
  6. Gasoline Stations: $34,816

The obvious conclusion is people like to eat, drink, and drive. Note that nonstore retailers are closing in on general merchandise stores.

Percentage Growth

advance-retail-sales-2016-11-15

Month-over month the only down categories were food service and drinking places, furniture, and department stores.

Gasoline sales were up a huge 2.2% but that will go negative next month. Once again motor vehicles led the way.

Year-over-year, the down categories were electronic and appliance stores, general merchandise stores and department stores.

The year-over-year numbers and nonstore growth suggest more store closings and fewer store openings, a key driver of jobs and inventory builds.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock