Italy’s government is on the verge of collapse. Prime minister Matteo Renzi reiterated his position just yesterday, he will not hang on if a referendum he seeks does not pass.
Polls show the referendum will fail. Then again, polls have not been remarkably accurate recently, to say the least. On the other hand, this poll shows a strong preference to what is labeled “populism”.
Finally, there is always a chance Renzi will not resign and he is only attempting to manipulate the vote. Let’s sort this all out.
Let It All Hang Out
Renzi Rules Out Leading Technocratic Government After Referendum
Please consider Renzi Rules Out Leading Technocratic Government After Referendum.
Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi has ruled out leading a caretaker government if he is defeated in a key constitutional referendum next month, removing some of the uncertainty surrounding his political future after the vote.
Mr Renzi had said early in the campaign that he would resign if he lost but has faced pressure from some lawmakers in his Democratic Party to stay on regardless of the outcome on December 4.
In a radio interview with Rtl 102.5 on Thursday, he decisively rejected the notion.
“If the citizens vote no and want a decrepit system that does not work, I will not be the one to deal with other parties for a caretaker government – a little government, ” Mr Renzi
said.
Italy Polls Get Worse for Renzi as Referendum Nears
Reuters reports Italy Polls Get Worse for Renzi as Referendum Nears.
Opinion polls are making increasingly grim reading for Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi less than three weeks ahead of a referendum on constitutional reform on which he has staked his political future.
Of 32 polls published by 11 different pollsters since Oct. 21, every one has the ‘No’ camp ahead, and generally by a widening margin.
In three polls published on Monday the lead for ‘No’ ranged from five points, according to IPR Marketing, to seven points, according to Tecne, with EMG Acqua in the middle at 6 points.
These results exclude undecided voters, which are estimated at 25.9 percent by EMG Acqua and 16.5 percent by Tecne. The most worrying aspect for Renzi is that as the number of undecided voters declines, the lead for ‘No’ appears to be rising.
Bookmakers also hold out little hope for the 41-year-old premier, with Ladbrokes estimating a roughly 75 percent probability of a win for ‘No.’
However, most pollsters continue to say the outcome of the Dec. 4. ballot remains uncertain.
They point out that opinion polls already proved notoriously wrong in the June referendum in which Britons chose to leave the European Union and most recently when Americans elected republican Donald Trump to the presidency on Nov. 8.
Blowout Against Renzi?
Politico reports Matteo Renzi to Lose Constitutional Referendum: Polls.
All polls by some of Italy’s biggest media outlets, held just before the pre-vote ban on publishing voter’s intentions, suggest that Italians are likely to reject Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s plan to limit powers of the Senate.
According to a poll conducted by Corriere della Sera newspaper, 55 percent of the people plan to vote ‘No’ and 45 percent ‘Yes’ to changes. The survey also suggested that around a third of the population is familiar with the content of the reform.
What’s It All About?
After all this time and electioneering by Matteo Renzi in Italy, and only a third of voters know what the referendum is about?!
Political populism: Is Italy next?
A rejection of Renzi’s reform plans in a referendum risks toppling the government says the Financial Times in Political populism: Is Italy next?
If the Italian prime minister loses a high-stakes referendum on his flagship constitutional reform set for December 4, it could bring his tenure in office — and his entire political project — to an abrupt and premature end.
“Renzi went for broke, and if he wins, the coast will be clear. But if he loses, it will be devastating,” said Paolo Donzelli, a 53-year-old Florentine car salesman seated at one of the large round tables set up at the conference. “This is the showdown, the big political battle. And then, as they say in Florence, they will count the dead.”
“It could be another watershed moment for Europe so there is huge interest and attention,” says Andrea Montanino, director of the global business and economics programme at the Atlantic Council. “Renzi is considered an anchor in a very complex picture.”
Mr Renzi is now scrambling to save his political skin. His first mistake, which the prime minister has acknowledged, was excessively personalising the referendum by vowing to resign and leave politics if he lost.
“The electorate is scared and doesn’t see solutions. They will use the vote to hit those who are in power and the paradox here is that Renzi is now seen as the quintessence of the establishment,” says Giovanni Orsina, a professor of politics at Luiss University in Rome. “Renzi is like the poker player who keeps upping the ante even if his cards are bad. He’s a prisoner of his own bluff.”
Students against Renzi
In the quite laughable column, “Renzi hired Jim Messina, President Barack Obama’s former campaign manager, to help with strategy and the get-out-the-vote operation, despite his inability to clinch a victory for Britain’s David Cameron in the EU referendum.”
Italian Debt Sinks 14% Since October
Also consider Italy’s 50-Year Bond Burnt in Global Sell-Off.
Prices for Italy’s longest-dated government debt have fallen 14 per cent since its sale in early October, inflicting a paper loss of €140,000 for every €1m bought by investors.
The shunning of the bond comes as polls point to a potential defeat in the December 4 vote for Matteo Renzi, the centre left prime minister, who has staked his political future on Italian voters approving the reforms.
At the time of its sale, Italy’s 50-year bond was seen as an extraordinary success — drawing €18bn of investor bids for a €5bn issue.
Waiting in the Wings
Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement (M5S), is waiting in the wings.
That Wikipedia chart is stale, dating from August. I like it because it shows the trend clearly. More recent polls show M5S slightly in the lead.
Given all the political uncertainties, it is difficult to say. Italy has a poll cutoff on the referendum so what we have now is about all we are going to see until December 4.
Coast Clear on Win?
Finally, and very importantly, I take exception to this comment from above: “Renzi went for broke, and if he wins, the coast will be clear”.
That is not true at all. The worst possible setup would be for Renzi to win the reform, but lose the next election.
The reform weakens the Senate and gives an absolute majority of lower Parliament to whoever wins the election.
As it stands right now, I would bet on the Five Star Movement. And M5S is anti-euro and anti-EU.
Those hoping for a win on the referendum now, may be extremely grateful it failed after the next election.
For now, the most likely setup is a collapse of the Italian government following a defeat of the referendum.
It’s time for a musical tribute
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Burn, baby, burn. No wait…..feelz the Bern, Italia.
Who luvs ya, Rome? Bernie does. Lots.
Now let’s blow this popsicle stand.
It sounds like the referendum is more about Renzi than it is about whatever it’s about. If that is the case, Renzi ought to just resign now and let the referendum pass of fail on its own merits.
What I don’t understand is that there are fantastic works by acclaimed economists all over the world from all sides of the political spectrum that say the Euro is fundamentally broken as it causes unproductive, poorer Mediterranean countries like Italy unbelievable economic harm and is a ticking time bomb for when another economic crisis hits.
And yet, these same economists still blindly support the economic status quo of no growth, high unemployment etc and then have the audacity to say that a pushback against this is somehow a ‘threat’ to the ‘liberal order’ or that a proposed referendum on the Euro is a bad idea!
Economists can live in their own little worlds and dream up perfect political parties and policies but that’s not going to change anything.
I’d ask them to try talking to one of the 40% of Italy’s youth that is unemployed how this incredible ‘liberal order’ is helping them.
It’s time for real change, especially in mainland Europe.
Because the populace have given away their ability to think and act for themselves. No leadership. Willingness to give power away to others. Sheep.
That’s true to an extent but I’d rather have the Italian people or 5SM members determining policy than Europhile politicians like Renzi.
If Renzi wins he gets more power.
“Renzi hired Jim Messina, President Barack Obama’s former campaign manager, to help with strategy…”
OK, so now we know where that incredibly ridiculous “E Adesso, il Futuro” (And Now, the Future) sign/slogan came from.
He’s finished.
“Renzi is considered an anchor in a very complex picture.”
http://maurobiani.it/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/renzi-selfie.png
Underlining the centralization of power – e.g. :
The two legislative chambers have equal powers, so bills must go between them until they are approved in identical form. The constitutional-reform bill would drastically curb the power of the Senate. Another reason it is so hard to bring about change is that central and regional governments have overlapping responsibilities. The reform would tackle that too.
Critics argue that, when taken with a new electoral law that has already been approved by parliament (but which could be reopened), the reform would give the next prime minister too much power. The head of government would have five years in office with a guaranteed parliamentary majority, free of even the threat of a rebellion in his own ranks—deputies’ prospects for re-election will depend not on their popularity with their constituents but on their standing with their party leader. It does not help that the hyper-active Mr Renzi is notorious for running government as a one-man show. (The Economist)
Not so fast, there is still time left to bring in Kenny Loggins…
…Singing “Highway to the Danger Zone”.
vince vreme
LOL
It’s time to take a TWO BY FOUR to the back of the heads of all these so called “elected” representatives of the “people”. Lobbyist whores who would rather have had a career in Hollywood, sell their “soft shoe routine” to the Oligarchs who use them to lead the people over every cliff they can find. The wheel will turn, and crush these maggots flat.
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/david-mcwilliams-why-italy-is-the-next-country-to-fall-to-trumpism-35219512.html
This is a related article i read this morning saying something similar.
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Every time I see Italy’s PM’s name, I am reminded of Wagner’s Opera, “Rienzi” [the last Roman Tribune], which is based on Lord Lytton’s book of the same name. In that story, it does not end well for Rienzi who is finally rejected by the Roman people who set the capitol on fire and destroy him.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rienzi
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Off Topic: Mish I have followed u made u my first read every day for many years as have many others. U do a lot of research and as a result u ger it right most of the time. I have mentioned several times the threat of globalism. This is much more than just a dangerous left wing political movement. Trumps election was a big setback to these people but it hasn’t slowed them down one bit. I hope u will research this thoroughly as as possible as it has profound implications for us all. Also some of these people Trump is putting on his team r cabinet r very talented and determined to shake things up even if we really can’t afford it. As u continue to analyze economic data-I think the bond market sell off may be worse than we think if Trumps ideas actually become law.
I am glad someone else has noticed that one of the things driving the “No” vote is the quite rational reasoning that Renzi and the PD won’t be the ones wielding the new power, and probably not all that long into the future.
Yes, EU has destroyed, centralized, and homogenized national politics. They back all sides possible and reduce the contest to chosen theme. The south of Europe is half way there, Greece and Cyprus caved, Spain is drawn out but slowly being absorbed, Portugal is contemplative, Italy is a reality that they cannot quite get a handle on. That does not mean there is no resentment, much resentment, but at at a bureaucratic level the real shift, in one form or another, has been towards centralized EU management. To remove, or control, layers of local representation is part of that. There are contests, regional ones, within countries, that are tedious and wasteful, but they are part of national balance, and we are not to judge offhand that a central national authority is more right. The local authorities are the easiest and hardest to penetrate – they are generally open to attention/investment, but do not work in a predictable manner – they tend to be of a mind of their own and not concerned with offending outsiders, whether on purpose or through incompetence ( which needs no justification, as ‘that is what stands’ ). Hence the push to increase allied central authority over a nation.
It’s all part of the very real plan. Resistance is futile.
As my country is leaving EU, ultimately it is not for me to resist, only to simply add my perspective and experience to public knowledge. I owe EU no respect, quite the opposite as I have watched the destruction of societies I have lived in, watched the dreams of an age overwritten, the work of a generation insulted, the good evolution of regions erased.
The fight is local, it is in how ordinary people relate to EU. As in the UK, people keep off the topic. ‘Pay me and call me stupid’ comes to mind, I guess we’ll find out who is fooling who eventually.
Let’s pencil into the calendar that December 4th is also the day of the Austrian presidential elections. I am holding my fingers crossed, but if the outcome is as I hope, the establishment will go into panic mode. The enemy would have breached the castle.
Sorry, but I don’t see it. It won’t happen like that. They’ll just block whomever or whatever they don’t like and the European sheeple will go along with it. This is the reality of Europe.
I fervently hope the Italians vote no. It is vital to the future of diversity in the European region that the homogenising EU construct is assigned to the wastebin of history. We Brits have come under an awful lot of presure since we voted for Brexit. We are constantly referre to as “stupid”, “brainless|”, “brainead”, so it would be nice to see some others in the EU firmly kick the EU and the euromaniacs into touch!
I totally agree but the forces aligned against the marginalised peoples are massive. Powers will stop at nothing to achieve their aim of a harmonised European super-state totally managed by the EU.
People will be trodden over to achieve the desired result. The result is wanted by big corporations, the political elite, geopolitical players – all faceless. No matter what they will pull out every stop to achieve ONE EUROPE, ONE VOLK EUROPEAN.
Junker has said he won’t work with Hofer if he wins and will block all Right ‘populists’ from power. Elect who they say or suffer.
Point is that while in EU there is real choice, you can argue all you want, but you have to fit in or leave. That is the only real route, un-signing from adhesion to EU and its mandate.
Should read ‘ while in EU there is NO real choice’…
While I love visiting Italy I wouldn’t want to live their, sadly things will most likely get far worse for the country in coming years. Over the last few years, our eyes have been diverted from economic problems that fester and brew in Italy. Many people have failed to notice the Euro-zone debt crisis has taken a heavy toll on Italy where consumption and investment are expected to remain weak. The country’s economy has shrunk by around 10% since 2007.
As mentioned above those buying the 50 year bond have taken it on the chin. This is because Italy is a European debt bomb waiting to explode. Its huge debt is not sustainable and the country is held together only because of the direct intervention of the ECB which made over 102 billion euros of Italian bond purchases in 2011-2012 alone. This has continued since then and the sum has gotten much larger. More on Italy’s growing debt problem in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2016/06/italys-future-hampered-by-debt_22.html
By 2020, with all the intervening events, EU will still be the same.
“Italy’s government is on the verge of collapse.”
Obama needs to give it his kiss of death … fly over and give speech in support of Renzi …
The tides of history are beginning to wash away the EU in the sands of time. Their days are financially and politically numbered. I wonder how a strong dollar and rising interest rates in the US will affect them.
Euro parity to $ = more German exports to USA, some increase from others.
Higher German trade & budget surplus.
More power to Germany to call the shots in the EU.
Others live off crumbs from the German table and try to become more like Germany.
Until Germany changes from surplus the effect is not so good elsewhere in the world. Not everyone can run a surplus at once.
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