Despite the two-month rise in consumer spending, consumer spending expectations as measured by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) Survey of Consumer Expectations continue to drop.
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) contains monthly insight about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, education and medical care to change over time. It also provides Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth, as well as their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty in expectations for the main outcomes of interest. Expectations are available by age, income, education, numeracy and geography.
Consumer Expectations: Inflation, Labor, Finances
The FRBNY does not provide a chart of spending expectations, but they do provide the data. Here is the chart I created in Excel.
Consumer Spending Expectations
Trends at the median and low-end are easy enough to spot. At the high end, expectations are well above the trendline.
Thanks to Fed policy, those at the top seem to be feelin’ something the rest don’t.
Feelin’ Wealthy, Dudes?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Stop peddling fiction…
Out-of-control healthcare costs are slowly bankrupting millions of US households.
‘Nuff said.
Karl Denninger points out that with healthcare costs rising 9% a year in our monopolistic system, bankruptcy for the Federal government is approaching very RAPIDLY…https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=231661
Well, at least the Federal Government (through their de-facto fiscal agent, the Federal Reserve) has a printing press.
The typical US household will go “belly up” long before the Federal Government does – which will likely be pretty soon.
That would help the US government keep its promise not to default on debt.
Denninger is a lunatic who is always shrieking about one thing or another. If you can’t recognize him as a silly crank just from the schizoid editing and typefaces in his rants, you’re at real risk of falling for all kinds of silly stuff on the internet.
He may be a bit of an Aspie bully of the shoot first, ask later persuasion, but he’s not a bad shot.
And he’s hardly alone in this prediction. Care is already being increasingly restricted for cost reasons, although primarily to lower visibility groups. The way cost projections are looking, it won’t be that long before the restrictions become obvious and uncomfortable enough, and to groups in a position to squawk louder, to force the issue to the forefront. And like most things in life, health care is an individual issue. But the continued and deeply ingrained insistence on forcing it to be a collective and political one, will eventually lead to a level of reality disconnect, that even the largest of governments can’t paper over.
A d-bag – yes. Nonetheless, he is by far one of the most accurate people on the net. A bit over-dramatic, long- winded, pompous, and maybe not with the best timing on his predictions – or an ability to remove certain biases, but his points are usually pretty valid, and his arguments are almost always well developed.
Bam well said. Pyrrhus you really need to check rate hike in New Mexico people will be paying 93% higher premiums. People are going broke paying for this abomination. Many state have 50% of higher hikes.
I dislike Rush Limbaugh because he think the right is always correct, but on healthcare long before its implementation he was and is correct.
People cannot spend discretionary income because those of us working our asses off just have to pay more and are broke.
If you live in a major population center it’s not just healthcare. Shelter (housing) is a significant part of your monthly expenses. While I am fortunate to have an employer sponsored plan my costs are increasing by 20% in 2017.
That’s just your premium going up.
How about your deductible?
Many of these outrageously expensive ($1,000+/month) now have $7,000 deductibles.
And what about the quality and reduced benefits?
Rejoice. The more you pay in premiums and deductibles, the better for GDP. Doubling your premiums and deductibles doubles your contribution to GDP. Quality and reduced benefits are irrelevant to the macro-economists. The FED and Chuck Schumer want higher prices, and this is one way to get there.
That’s why I opted out of health insurance in 2009. Figured I paid out enough for one lifetime, over 100k with little to show for it except a savings deficit. Decided in 2009 to invest those premium monies in the great casino of American capitalism and wait for Obamacare to deliver the promised same health care plan as members of Congress at lower cost. Actually, I knew Obamacare was a Marxist lie in 2009; my premiums back then were already rapidly escalating at the same time deductibles were skyrocketing and lab and other costs were exempted from insurance coverage. The trend was clear several years ago. Really a no-brainer to opt out, and watch the invested premium money grow for me rather than be pissed away as insurance payments. All the moaning and angst about health care insurance tells me I was right, and I am damn glad to be watching from the sidelines. Saving has worked for me, and the medical people are all too happy to take my cash. Mind you, I faced some angst paying for a surgery in cash, but in the end cash was the cheaper way to go than either insurance or Medicare, both of which stick you with plenty of costs.
Obama deserves the Health Insurance Industry Lifetime Sales Achievement Award, and the Clinton Foundation type rewards that go with it. No one in the history of insurance salesmanship has done more to make consumption of that product both mandatory and desired by the masses. A success on the road to the Marxist state, the Bolshevik paradise planned for the USA, except for the fact that what failed in communist Eastern Europe and the old Soviet Union is just as inherently impossible in the USA.
Many people don’t realize this but you are not required to buy insurance through Obamacare! My daughter-in-law purchased health insurance through a private company. Her premiums are $198 per month, co-pays $25 – $35 and deductible is $2000.
ObamaCare is meant to be just for poor people who need help making payments.
The Cadillac Tax was pushed back to when?