Despite the two-month rise in consumer spending, consumer spending expectations as measured by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) Survey of Consumer Expectations continue to drop.

The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) contains monthly insight about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, education and medical care to change over time. It also provides Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth, as well as their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty in expectations for the main outcomes of interest. Expectations are available by age, income, education, numeracy and geography.

Consumer Expectations: Inflation, Labor, Finances


The FRBNY does not provide a chart of spending expectations, but they do provide the data. Here is the chart I created in Excel.

Consumer Spending Expectations


Trends at the median and low-end are easy enough to spot. At the high end, expectations are well above the trendline.

Thanks to Fed policy, those at the top seem to be feelin’ something the rest don’t.

Feelin’ Wealthy, Dudes?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock