Durable goods orders as reported by the Census Bureau were a scorcher today, but figures were heavily skewed by nondefense aircraft orders up over 94%.
In turn this caused the transportation index to jump 12 percent, and nondefense capital goods orders to jump an also amazing 14.5%.
Excluding transportation, new orders were up 1%. Excluding defense, new orders were up 5.2%. Click on any of the following charts for a better view.
Durable Goods New Orders, Month-Over-Month
Durable Goods Shipments and New Orders
Transportation Shipments and New Orders
Capital goods shipments fell 0.2% for the month. Core capital goods shipments (nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft) rose 0.2% for the month.
Despite the amazing set of month-over month numbers, key year-over-year shipments and new orders are all negative as shown by the yellow highlights in the far right columns in both the above charts.
Core capital goods shipments are down 5.2% from a year ago. Core capital goods orders are down 4.0% from a year ago.
Also note that both auto shipments and new orders were down for the month.
This was a good set of numbers but not remotely close to how the headline numbers read at first glance.
Since shipments more directly factor into GDP, these numbers will not affect 4th quarter GDP estimates much, but future shipments, assuming the aircraft orders are not cancelled, will come into play down the line.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock