Whatever numbers the retail association posts this weekend for Black Friday (typically overoptimistic assessments) are likely to be skewed this year even more.
The New York Times expects a Less Frenzied Black Friday as Millennials opt to stay away.
If you’re in the retail business in the United States, you probably really care about these two things: millennials and Black Friday.
But more and more, these two big drivers of the industry don’t mix inside stores — a dynamic that is reshaping one the country’s biggest shopping days.
Young people of all kinds, a coveted group for retailers because of their free-spending ways, are increasingly turning to their computers and phones to do their holiday shopping, spreading out more widely the days they open their wallets. Crowds on Friday, the unofficial kickoff of the holiday shopping season, will tilt older than a few years ago, and also, it appears, more cautious with their money.
As a result, the mix of retailers with high expectations for the day is changing quickly, skewing more toward dollar stores and discount retailers and toward essential products like food and cookware. And it is also making the day itself less and less important for the industry over all.
A decade ago, the day after Thanksgiving accounted for 6 percent of all shopping for the holiday season, according to Craig Johnson, the president of Customer Growth Partners, a research firm. This year, he expects shoppers to spend $27 billion on Black Friday, but that will account for only 4.3 percent of the spending this season.
Over all, people are expected to spend $632 billion this holiday season, up from $607 billion last year, the company estimates. But for the first time, more than half that growth will come from online shopping, Mr. Johnson said.
At the same time, there is a distinct division in who is shopping online. More than half of baby boomers surveyed said they would do none of their holiday shopping online, according to a study by CivicScience, a market research company. Nearly 40 percent of those age 18 to 34 — the group known as millennials — will do most or all of their shopping on the web, and another 35 percent said they would shop both online and in-store.
That shift to online shopping has put more pressure on stores to offer deals good enough to bring people out into the cold. Less than a quarter of Americans plan to shop in stores on Black Friday, down from 28 percent two years ago, according to a survey by Bankrate.com, a website that tracks savings products.
Does Black Friday Make Sense?
The notion of Black Friday no longer makes much sense.
Now, there are “Black Friday doorbusters happening all week long”
More and more stores will be open Thanksgiving. Wal-Mart and Target will open stores a 6:00 PM. Next year it will likely be noon.
Amazon has Black Friday deals on a variety of toys, electronics, and home goods starting on Wednesday.
JC Penny is promoting $500 coupons. Sorry, it’s one per store. One in 10 will get $100, and everyone else $10. Can JC Penny really afford losing $100 on 10% of its customers. We will find out. Maybe there is another catch.
Black Friday Month
A few years ago people were waiting in line hours to be the first in the door for blockbuster deals. Perhaps some still do. But why bother? BGR reports “Black Friday is no longer a day, it’s now a month-long event on Amazon that kicks off today and runs straight through Cyber Monday and all the way to December 22.”
The “today” in that story was Friday, November 18, a week ahead of the presumed black Friday.
On November 21, Aarons put out a press release announcing “7 Days of Black Friday“.
Perpetual Black Friday? Why Not?
Why not start in September? Why not Perpetual Black Friday?
I just did a website search. The name PerpetualBlackFriday.Com was not taken. I snagged it for $15 on GoDaddy. Why not?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Hillary’s Black Friday Sale special: Clinton Foundation speeches 95% off!
No reports on any sales yet ~
Goldman Sachs bought the last of them. maybe we will see them in the discount bin at WallyMart someday.
How much of a black Friday would we have without insane levels of debt?
especially when the average person (allegedly ) doesn’t have $500 measly dollars for a sudden unexpected expense but can spend $5,000 on black friday on designer clothing & electronics
Credit. Infinite debt.
People have lost all concept of what dependency and the associated debt slavery means.
“more pressure on stores to offer deals good enough to bring people out into the cold”
it’s not cold….there’s climate change so it’s getting warmer in the USA.
c’mon man, keep up.
this year there are very few ‘deals’ — most items are selling at full retail price without any discounts or promotions (especially designer clothing & electronics) .. cars & SUVs are selling out at full MSRP + options + fees + taxes and most people take out a 7 year loan then ‘roll’ it into a new vehicle every two years
In Texas they are advertising 20%off on chevy trucks and Ram is offering up to $18k off the same. Costco and BestBuy are offering 75″ TVs for $1500. I have a 73″ Mitsubishi rear projection that I paid $8k for 15 years ago that I can’t give away.
Just got home from my Thanksgiving adventure. Spent a couple of days in Chicago and did high tea at the Drake. Crowded. Hotel I stayed at was crowded with families. Michigan Ave busy. Ordered some high level kitchenware from Amazon while there. Great prices, lower than other places. Also got some miscellaneous stuff from Amazon on the same order. Got some tea from Adagio tea on State St. My hotel was booked a few months ago when prices were low. Great room. Seasonal pricing bought at the right time.
On the other hand, I traveled close to home. The alternative would have been Las Vegas, which would have cost $800 min just to get to the hotel and cover resort fees. Hotel and food and entertainment extra. To some extent, the trade-off gave me a better time and allowed me to buy stuff and have lots of cash left over.
So, did I max our Black Friday or cheap out and have a great time in the process?
When Black Friday comes I’m gonna dig myself a hole, gonna lay down in it til I satisfy my soul.
The stores had nothing I wanted last month or last year. Won’t go anywhere near them today. Don’t understand this instinct or mass hypnosis to shop.
A hike in the woods sounds good instead.
Happy Thanksgiving Mish & all.
Uh where are all these millenials getting the cash (which can quickly reach the mid 4 figures spent just on black friday) to spend?? Oh I forgot student loans (a good portion is spent on frivolous consumer items), mommy & daddy and credit cards not to mention 1/3 of millenials are still living with mommy & daddy so they don’t have to worry about something so inconvenient and “annoying” as having to pay rent or worse having to make a mortgage payment and property/school taxes not to mention 20 somethings get free health care until age 26 and most are in the 47% that don’t pay federal income tax but get a $10,000 Earned income credit every year
Do you know anything about the Earned Income Credit?
The maximum amount of credit for Tax Year 2017 is:
$6,318 with three or more qualifying children
$5,616 with two qualifying children
$3,400 with one qualifying child
$510 with no qualifying children
when you add in other deductions quickly adds up to the five figures and the figures you gave is just on the federal level. classic example redistribution of taxes paid by others
like with medicaid (and other “entitlements”) to poor or “low income” people there is a huge amount of fraud involved that no one wants to address because they will be accused of being racist and “mean spirited”. But again I think that you agree that most millennials are in that 47% that don’t pay federal income tax (and probably not state or local taxes either except for sales tax especially on booze)
I doubt many of well-to-do parents are getting much in the way of an earned income credit for older kids. A little bit of money from investments disqualifies you, to name but one disqualification. The credit is indeed made for those with low incomes. If you qualify, you probably really do need the money for basics.
oh puleeze your last sentence is just bleeding heart BS that gets rehashed over & over again by idiots like Liz Warren & Bernie (grandpa) Sanders. Maybe don’t have kids until you can afford them? maybe don’t buy crap from 7-11 & booze every day? Education rather than partying and wasting time on Facebook posting selfies?
You sound like a preachy matron. People like their booze and cigarettes, just like you like spouting off. To each their own. Puritan dictates may be part of the American fabric, and you are welcome to your views. But I can tell you from experience trying to take the EIC, $3,000 in investment income disqualifies you. Also if your kid takes a job, which most of them do to get out of the house, that disqualifies you from the EIC, too. If your kid refuses even a part-time job, then believe me you have a much bigger problem than the EIC on your hands. The EIC was not the worst Richard Nixon scheme. It certainly is not a get rich program, nor anywhere near as lucrative as SSI and other government programs. Much better scams available.
Any system that sustains the non working for more than a few moths is DESTRUCTIVE to society. If it is supposed that as long as entitlements do not provide a lifestyle equal to the rich and famous, that somehow the incentive to produce and excel will prevail, it is rank ideological foolishness. Look around at the VAST number of people who are more than content with whatever they can acquire for no effort. This mentality extends to the very top where we have a considerable array of individuals graduating from top universities completely unwilling to WORK unless they believe it really isn’t, not to mention the gambling “investment” class who fully expect vast riches from the production of absolutely NOTHING.
Thanksgiving is more meaningful than ever as never have there been so many receiving from so few producing. They SHOULD be thankful, but we know they are NOT, as they instead only feel MORE entitled with ever increasing expectations.
Lets just face facts…..the productive class is the disparaged class.
Maybe we should eliminate the federal deficit by eliminating Medicare and Social Security completely. Whining Baby Boomers are the most worthless generation ever.
I’m a boomer and (wow) I agree with Billy for once. Eliminating medicare and SS will not end the deficit (duh, it’s not even counted in the “official” deficit) but yeah, just refund what I paid in and leave me alone.
Don’t get me started on comparing whiners. Most Boomers have yet to begin withdrawing from their promised benefits, unlike so many who are fully already attached to the entitlement titt. Also note that it is the over 55 along with immigrants who have managed to stay in the workforce…still working…still paying into SSI, all while being told how worthless and demanding they are.
That would be me, whiner.
As long as I get mine, I don’t care even a little about the kids that follow me. Work until you’re statistically 5 years from your demise, then you can collect what you paid in via high payroll taxes. Or, pay nothing into the system and either save a lot or live in a tent by the Interstate during your golden years.
Many of them have jobs. Not great paying, perhaps. But without rent are putting away over $1k a month, or so they tell me. Money they might use for school, or whatever. I think they have scaled down their needs and wants. But living at home allows them to buildup savings. A nation of savers once again, perhaps?
so they ‘live at home’ and are perpetual children well into their 20s & 30s where they can live rent free, not have to pay for food or utilities, and have those “annoying” household chores like laundry & cleaning taken care of by mommy & daddy.. You seriously think this is a good thing? too bad their bleeding heart parents are just enablers of this
people like their booze and cigarettes?? LOL!! so that is how one rationalizes the frivolous spending on that crap?? certainly won’t help one get into the middle class (except in their fantasies).. Who was it that said “when you subsidize behavior it only leads to more of it”??
People should be free to pursue whatever ignorant lifestyle they choose….as long as I don’t have to pay for it.
C’mon guys, everybody has to have their sugary soda and junk food fix every day, right?
How would the po’ fok get their fix without the “Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program” provided by the taxes paid by the nation’s producers (and some added government debt)?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-23/look-how-much-junk-food-bought-taxpayer-funded-food-stamps
Oh yeah that’s a government study. Nobody believes that, probably “fake news”.
Black Friday is for the nutcases of the world. They look like cattle and if you fall getting into a store you will be trampled. I never have nor will I ever wait in line to go into a store fro Black Friday deals.
Wednesday morning I was working graveyard shift. I made a fuel stop. While I was filling up a painted up school bus pulled into the parking lot. About 10 kids (yea, they’re kids now) got out. In my youth I would have called them filthy stoner hippies (I was more a punk rocker), but these days they’re just kids. They might have been a band on tour, but I doubt it, unless they have a terrible manager. Really just looked like what might be called vagabonds or gypsies in another time.
Anyway, they all descended on the convenience store, which had one person working (remember it was about 1:00am). She was just watching the cash register, not really paying much attention to the rest of the store. Given the number, all in different areas of the store, I’m fairly certain they took full advantage of the 5 finger discount. They didn’t get fuel in the bus, but given the number of girls along for the ride, I’m guessing they could get some quick cash if necessary.
Hard to beat free, if your only goal in life is substance living with your friends.
I’m from the era of “Gas, grass or ass, nobody rides for free”.
It seems that the more things change, the more they stay the same.
You inspired me so I snagged “allyearblackfriday.com” 🙂
Last weekend my girlfriend went shopping at an outlet mall outside Boston. It was packed. They were already having big holiday sales.
Perpetual BF = desperate retail.