The fragile coalition of US President Obama, German chancellor Angela Merkel, and French President Francois Hollande, all waging a futile second cold war on Russia has shattered.
Led by Donald trump, but fought by Angela Merkel, the world is warming up to Russia.
Obama is gone, Hollande is gone (dropped out), and Merkel is left dangling in a wind strongly blowing against her.
Please consider European Consensus on Tackling Putin Under Strain.
François Fillon, the centre-right favourite to be France’s next president, shook Europe’s fragile consensus over Russia as he attacked the bloc’s “emotional” approach to President Vladimir Putin.
On the margins of an EU summit aiming to show Europe’s resolve in the face of Mr Putin’s increasing aggression, Mr Fillon captured the growing lack of unity in the West’s stance even as Russian-backed Syrian forces over-ran the stricken city of Aleppo.
Echoing the rhetoric of Donald Trump, the US president-elect, Mr Fillon said: “I have, simply, a lot of respect for Russia.” Mr Fillon was speaking moments after meeting Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, a strong advocate of the EU’s sanctions-led policy against Moscow.
“I have always said that whoever is the Russian leader — be his name Vladimir, Boris or Igor — is the leader of the largest country on the earth’s surface,” Mr Fillon added. “Europe must have a long-term strategy with Russia and not simply act on emotion.”
Several countries — including Italy, Hungary, Slovakia and Greece — have long complained of sanctions fatigue and called for a new approach towards Russia. Their position would be strengthened if Mr Fillon — who won a primary contest last month to become the centre-right candidate for France’s presidential elections — were to replace François Hollande in 2017. Mr Hollande arrived at the summit dismissing calls for more dialogue with the Kremlin.
Ms Merkel, who worked hard to win over Mr Hollande to her Russia policy, could face even greater disputes with Mr Fillon.
Merkel Coalition Splinters
The next French election is likely to come down between a choice between Fillon and Marine Le Pen. In addition to being anti-Euro, Le Pen is also warm to Russia.
Either way, the EU nannycrats will lose something.
And the next government in the Netherlands is also increasingly likely to poke a finger in Merkel’s eyes.
Even if Merkel survives the next German election, she will be seriously damaged goods, unable to control a Europe splintering out of her control.
Russia warming is a good thing. Sanctions make no sense. Neither does the euro itself, as implemented.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Last night sanctions were extended a further 6 months by the EU28.
Holland happy for now as they had a big issue with the downing of their passenger jet over Ukraine.
After 6 months it might relax. Estonia, Latvia, Poland all in favour of the sanctions.
The plan was to make life difficult for Russians to influence the next set of Russian elections. This was mentioned in the none mainstream media a couple of years back. How best to out Putin.
Meanwhile, back at the Ranch, another fudge.
1E for MPS is still higher valuation than others and they want 1E-24E.
http://www.euractiv.com/section/euro-finance/news/sources-italy-prepares-to-pump-e15-bln-into-ailing-banks/
Sanctions were punishment for invading Ukraine and annexing Crimea.
Are you contending that Russia should not have been punished for this action?
Can you please tell me when Russia invaded Ukraine and I was of the impression that Crimeans voted almost unanimously to become once again part of Russia after being given away years ago by a drunk. Also there does not seem to be a build up of Russian forces in Crimea as there was always a large Russian force there as a naval port, much like the US ones around the world, with the agreement of the Ukraine government. By that I mean the legitimate Ukraine government, not the puppet one installed by the US.
DCMCM – you nailed it.
US citizens are so misinformed it’s painful to watch from here in the UK.
Apparently even maps don’t help!
https://youtu.be/lj3iNxZ8Dww
Probably a bit unfair on some Americans. I mean why should the average person, particularly young Americans care what goes on in the world. they have the MSM to think for them.
To be fair to the young lady it is hard to find a place on a map if you don’t have one.
I would just smile and agree with whatever she says.
Amen to that … and I’m not even religious !
The referendum vote on whether to leave Ukraine was held WHILE CRIMEA WAS OCCUPIED BY THE RUSSIANS. That’s like Poland holding a vote in 1940 whether or not to join Germany… THEY WERE ALREADY OCCUPIED. And you accuse young people of being ignorant of world events. Plenty of Fake News to be found here on Mish’s website.
+10
And this just goes to show the ignorance of liberals and Europeans. Of course, the Crimea was “occupied” by Russians – BECAUSE IT IS, WAS AND ALWAYS HAS BEEN > 80% ETHNIC RUSSIAN. Yes, it belonged to Ukraine, and the entire time it did it was “occupied” by Russians. You also are totally ignorant of Ukraine’s independence treaty (CIS) which stated that in the event NATO troops were stationed on Ukrainian soil, that Crimea would revert to Russia. I am an old school anti-Soviet cold warrior. As such I have been a student of Soviet and Russian affairs for more than 40 years. The “fake news” is that Russia invaded Ukraine. No matter how you want to spin it, you’re either ignorant, a troll, or a deliberate misinformer.
Probably all 3…
All lands are occupied by whichever government is currently running them – that’s the essence of government. So aren’t Native American lands occupied by the US government? Hawaiian lands?
Perhaps you are suggesting that governments should be dissolved entirely prior to an election?
I’m for that. Any kind of attempt to get rid of that cluster-eff in Washington.
They also did shoot down the Malaysian aircraft carrying a lot of Dutch civilians and Aleppo is hardly an endorsement.
“They also did shoot down the Malaysian aircraft carrying a lot of Dutch civilians”
Have you proof or are you parroting MSM objectivity?
Who did?
I just want to fathom the depth of your gullibility.
There are no clear or obvious answers to do with the existing arguments , except that should not have come to this to start off with.
But here we are, and it all sucks on that front.
“Sanctions were punishment for invading Ukraine and annexing Crimea.
Are you contending that Russia should not have been punished for this action?”
Where are the sanctions for overthrowing Yanukovich, which lead to what followed afterward? Fake mainstream media has not even bothered to investigate what actually happened. We really don’t know what the truth is.
I contend that Russia should not have been punished for this action.
The russian speaking crimeans voted over 90% to join
Mother Russia. Free and fair (international observers). US and allies were invited as observers but declined. They were not annexed but wanted to reunite.
Were there sanctions imposed on the US when it annexed Hawaii, a sovereign kingdom? Why do you care what goes on between Ukraine and Russia?
I care because I don’t want to see Hitler part II become reality. If you give a power like Russia an inch, they are likely to try and take a mile.
The same, obviously, could be said for the USA.
@James Greenberg – Then move to Russia or someplace else. Don’t let the door hit you in the ass.
Some people here seem to approve the idea that nobody should care if Russia invades other countries. It is like legalizing the actions of a classroom bully. My country fought two wars with Russia and we lost countless human lives. Once we were a reluctant part of Russia. Putin is actually looking even further than the USSR borders. This should scare anyone with brains. People here should not try to lecture me about Russia or Putin. Nothing will ever change my mind about the facts.
If someone is so gullible as to ask why should we condemn a takeover of a sovereign nation than he simply is so naive (or worse) that I truly never want to meet him.
“I care because I don’t want to see Hitler part II become reality.”
I don’t think Merkel is going to invade Poland, so you can relax about that.
Well we do have to find a way to end this attack on the Muslims…glorified hate does not work forever…
Ed, don’t you mean “Well we do have to find a way to end the Muslims attacking us…glorified hate does not work forever…”
Oh god yes, the Muslims are destroying our cities, slaughtering our people, and stealing our oil.
Whoever would do that is pure evil!
I like the way you think
Getting along with Russia is all good news!!! even for the USA, although they might not appreciate it yet. All they need is for the Neo-cons to retire.
If Neo-con means every US congressman over age 65, the top three ranks of each branch of the military and apparently most of the CIA, yeah.
Ukraine was given so called safety guarantees 1990’s when they gave up nuclear arsenal. The “guarantees” came from USA, UK and Russia. I bet Ukrainians regret giving up to those demands. The rest of Eastern Europe has joined NATO and is watching the developments with great concern.
Putin has publicly talked about that the USSR borders should be re-established. Talk that to some countries are very worrisome. He has also mentioned that the treaty with Finland was a mistake – meaning that Finland belongs to Russia. He is very dangerous man and for this reason I am not sure if “understanding” him is the right choice to be made.
If countries like Ukraine can not trust the promises made by West then what is left?
And regarding the one comment that Russia did not attack Ukraine…what dreamland you live in? There has been established cases that Russian military is operating on Ukrainian soil and they do it without the official uniforms.
“Putin has publicly talked about that the USSR borders should be re-established. Talk that to some countries are very worrisome. He has also mentioned that the treaty with Finland was a mistake – meaning that Finland belongs to Russia.”
Secretary Baker told Gorbechev that NATO would not take one step east. Where is NATO now? Maybe Putin has good reason to think that the USSR should not have been broken up. After all, we didn’t sit for missiles being placed in Cuba. Why should Putin accept NATO being on the Russian border?
Also, there is that Time Magazine story Mish brought up, about our interference in favor of Yeltsin’s election. There is a tangled web in there somewhere. What in that lead to Putin coming into power? Again, our fake mainstream media doesn’t tell us the truth about what is going on. It parrots government talking heads. All we know is what we are being told, not what is actually happening.
“all we know is what we are being told”
You missed the missiles in Cuba being a response to the US putting tactical nukes in Turkey.
They’re living in fake news dreamland. Can’t imagine why anyone on the right things coddling up to Putin and Assad is good news, or good for America or America’s reputation. Libertarians like Mish, sure they can believe that stuff- the entire libertarian philosophy is short-sighted and naive, the kind of political ideas that get thrown around by rich white boys in college dorms. But conservatives should know better than to coddle up to people like Putin and Assad. Really the irony of having the right wing sell us out to the Russians after decades of having them accuse the left of being “soft on Russia” is hard to bear.
Yeah right Phil, Libertarian premises like “mind your own business” and “do no harm to others”, those awful ideas that sound like fingernails on a blackboard to big government control freaks like you.
Sigh. In all the history of the world, there has NEVER been a Libertarian run country. And there is a reason for that. Because Libertarianism sounds possible and perhaps attractive to some when they read it in a book but it would never work in the real world. So stop dreaming. Or should I say drooling over something that has zero chance of ever happening?
There is little or no chance of a minarchist government because 99% of the people are wired for government. Just slightly better than chimps that are 100% wired for an alpha-male social hierarchy. Government is just the alpha-male social hierarchy wedded to a top-down chain of command hierarchy. The chain of command hierarchy can be seen to have a basis in the scapegoating done by lower males.
If 99% of the people were anarchists there would be little or no chance of government – they wouldn’t be wired for it..
So currently man is 1% free of the dictates of the animal world.
@Phil – I would give you a Like but this stupid commenting system requires you to create either a WordPress site or another registration.
So I will just say +10 (again).
“And regarding the one comment that Russia did not attack Ukraine…what dreamland you live in? There has been established cases that Russian military is operating on Ukrainian soil and they do it without the official uniforms.”
Maybe you could supply proof of this for my enlightenment. By your logic there was one particular case where Ukraine was operating on Russian soil and were caught with the weapons, but just not in uniform. Also there is plenty of proof that the US was operating in Ukraine when the legal government was under attack by “rebels” i.e. Nuland stating that the US had invested 5 billion in the “democratic operation” in Ukraine when the legal but obviously corrupt Yanukovich because he needed (wanted) more money and was leaning toward Moscow so had to go. The same lady handed out cookies to rebels during the Maiden riots and McCain met with rebel leaders under the nazi flag.
Don’t preach to me about those awful Russians while praising the US actions. There may be no good here on either side but inflaming the situation by the US has brought us to the edge of WW3.
Perhaps Estonia, Latvia should go back to Russia?
Eastern Europe in general. East Germany etc.
If the UK gets a hard deal from the EU I would actively canvass that the UK should let Putin know the UK will not involve itself to defend any eastern EU country – NATO or no NATO.
We would be with Trump and the EU can sort their own problems out.
When UK intelligence is no longer available the EU will realise what their expansionist policies have brought down upon themselves. Hard damaging treatment of those guaranteeing security of Europe since 1945 is not acceptable. Without the US, UK, the EU would have few of the freedoms it enjoys.
UK should defend it’s own national interest only should the EU play hardball.
Talking to Putin should not be off the UK table.
He might be on the UK’S side for all we know.
funny……the Marxist liberals do not like Russia after the fall of communism……..now that’s funny.
Almost as funny as the American right wing suddenly happily defending a real, honest-to-god Manchurian candidate.
Obviously the movie of life playing in Phil’s head is “Bizarro World” where everything is backwards. Best to ignore such trolls.
@CJ – You seem to find it easy to call people names. Suggest you go put your head back in your arse and go away.
“a real, honest-to-god Manchurian candidate.”
Proof?
Although I do not think Trump will actually get along with Russia and most of what he states is rhetoric, his cabinet is loaded with Generals and Admirals.
Honestly I wish we could have peace. The USA and EU intervention into the Middle East in the name of terrorism needs to end. Maybe, just maybe if we got out of the wars and tried to make peace we would not have to worry about terrorists at home. Tough to make us the enemy when we are no longer bombing their homes and killing innocent civilians.
I am not calling for isolating the USA, but we need to bring many of our military forces home. We are tired of unofficial wars.
I agree. The main reason I’m happy Trump won was so we could end the practice of trying to overthrow everyone we have a disagreement with.
Oh yeah, everything we know about Trump so far shows he doesn’t carry a grudge or look for payback. Is that sarcasm clear enough?
He currently doesn’t have a record of killing people and destroying countries.
Who would you pick for Pres?
Not Trump!
” Neither does the euro itself, as implemented. ”
Not sure I agree with that except labeling the euro an implement.
Two countries with different interest rates should never share the same currency.
2 countries, without the same budgetary discipline, should never share a currency.
two countries will never have the same budgetary discipline.
It’s not the budget or the currency, it’s the central bank regime under a fiat money regime.
they will if there is a single budget authority and treasury and tax harmonisation.
suppose you cold call that one country just different languages.
Am closer to what justaned says.
You could ( call it hypothetical to avoid long argument) have say gold as a common currency. Interest is individua, running in a financial chain, across borders if necessary, to the lowest offer – simply international banking where local, national, and international rates flux between themselves according to a host of criteria.
Two countries using gold as common currency, but with a different budgetary discipline, may exist. Why not? One country taxes half and the other nothing, in one country a great share of spending passes through government hands, in the other it is left in private hands.
The problem is international debt created on that common currency, this is where previous attempts failed – at an international political level. Individual governments awarded themselves greater revenue than possible by issuing more paper than they had backing for, and that resulted in dissolution of the agreement to allow metal as common currency. Purely a political and banking regime decision at national level.
So the discrepancy lies in qualification of national debt or derivatives as worthy, and people will argue and bargain over those, usually according to the value of their home nation and the indirect gains that are available. As a country cannot spend all of its say ( it will still exist and continue running even if every last piece of gold is sent abroad), it will always claim higher authority. The local regime will always claim priority.
That is why the euro is an implement, to regime change, to a single regime. As justaned says, the challenge is now central to national regime.A disciplined non fiat currency need not have a central regime, but national regimes would have to be subservient to its meaning for it to succeed. Something tells me that national regimes will usually always reject subservience as a matter of pride, and so a common currency must exist outside of their realm and control.
@fish Yes, a common currency under a single regime is not a common currency, but THE currency. In EU we have a common currency under shared central and national regime, and very blurred in definition between the two yet certainly not a single regime.
EU, completely united and yet fully independent at the same time, always free to follow, never forced to lead, not obliged to stay, but never allowed to leave etc.
Probably trying to drive the population nuts.
Mish- What do you think this means for Russia’s stock market? It’s still down about 40% from the peak, although up big this year.
The Dutch PVV of Geert Wilders is certainly pro Russian. Pillon (Fr.) and Grillo (It.) are certainly not against collaberation with Moscow. For stability and peace in Europe. Yesterday neoliberal and Brussel’s marionet Mark Rutte, Dutch Prime Minister, refused to claim the Dutch NO against the association treaty with Kiev. This is a clear sign that Brussels’ anti Putin propaganda has won the race. The side letter (to “enforce” the Dutch NO) attached to the treaty won’t be signed by Kiev and is worthless.
But historically since George Bush Sr and Bill Clinton entered the WH, the Pentagon, US Ministery of Defense (conflict architects like Dick Cheney) and their European right wing war mongers began to surround the Russian west border with fresh NATO Allies. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Romania and an attempt to annex the former Sovjet Republic Georgia .
The Crimea originally belonged to Russia since Catherine the Great and was handed over to the Ukrain SSR after the WW II as a gift. People like Victoria Nuland were succesfull to push away the democratic elected government/president in March 2014 to be replaced by the corrupt Panama paper and choco king Porosjenko. If Barack Obama had been President of Russia he would have done the same. Take back the strategic and former homeland of Crimea and support the Russian minority in Eastern Ukraine, the Donbas. It seems after the sanctions against Iran are partly lifted the war mongers on both sides of the Ocean need a new Cold War enemy. At the cost of the stability in the Old Continent.
We have yet to throw off Cold War mentality. Until every politician during that generation such as John McCain etc. leave office, expect continued tensions with Russia. Also the global industrial complex is real.
I am so happy to see these old cold warriors reach end-of-political-life. And I’m old enough to have owned Fleetwood Mac’s Never Going Back on vinyl.
Yesterdays gone, yesterdays gone.
The EU will have to come to an arrangement with Russia.
If what I read is correct, after Brexit, something like 80% of EU defence is paid for by countries outside the EU.
“Warming” to Putin and his government is a poor goal. Less intervention, however, is a good goal.
One can reject a foreign government without attacking it with sanctions or other force. The U.S. should not warm to tyrannical governments, and Russia is one. There is little freedom in Russia. Rather, the U.S. should co-exist with bad governments when it is counterproductive to use force to reform or to check them.
Now, it is presently counterproductive to use force against Russia. And as Mish has pointed out, sanctions are a form of warlike force. Diplomacy not the use of force is the answer to Russia.
OTOH, to buddy up to Russia in an attempt to plunder and dominate the rest of the world with it, as Trump seems poised to do, would be as bad. We should be wary about and cool toward, but peaceful with respect to Russia. Moral judgments are fine. It is a bad government, and Putin is a tyrant. It does not follow that use of force or other belligerence is the answer.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-gwCXwhcEwbY/U2UOiLysETI/AAAAAAAAM2E/-KYAY3nfRMI/s1600/russia-wants-war-us-bases-sarcastic-map.jpg
Another warming, or not.
Today the Swiss over-rode their direct democracy with a model for UK negotiations.
I don’t have time to explain what this means but the language is VERY IMPORTANT.
Includes allusion to words used by Cameron.
This will be proven to be important.
http://www.euractiv.com/section/social-europe-jobs/news/swiss-parliament-errs-on-side-of-caution-in-eu-immigration-dispute/
Also important on EU Banking Union. Germany blocks again.
http://www.euractiv.com/section/euro-finance/news/germany-blocks-small-progress-on-banking-union-at-eu-summit/
THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT.
Asking for Independence is now ILLIEGAL.
http://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/catalan-parliament-speaker-goes-on-trial-for-part-in-independence-push/
Don’t worry about Putin or Russia.
They aren’t really asking anymore, parallel institutions have been prepared and the referendum is to be used to make the proclamation.
For now the Catalan parliament has overstepped national constitutional limits. Cataluña can ask for independence, it will be denied, and regional referendums must be approved nationally to take place. Obviously, if you declare independence, then the Spanish national rules no longer apply.
Expect trouble there one way or another.
Mish- Just wanted to say I appreciate that you are one of the few that have kept objective in this entire charade- I personally find it hard to believe that anyone who knows the history of the United States and its wars does not connect the dots in concluding the singular goal is control of the entire world and any country that is an impediment to this goal is an enemy.
Thanks Daniel – Much appreciated comment
I agree with your comment except that there are many more than a few who see what is happening for what it is as signified by the comments in many articles. for me this is one of the most “go to” current affair sites on the net.
That articles get so many informed and/or genuine comments is proof enough that Mish is doing a good job.
Russia has gone full circle and gone back to what it was during the reign of the tsars; basically a peripheral European country with some colorful customs. It takes the united idiots of Europe to drive it deeper into Asia against her will. Naturally, the worlds does not revolve around Europe anymore,so it’s just as well. Oh, but the nostalgia.