As we head into 2017, how should one be positioned? Let’s explore that idea with a trio of contrarian indicators.

US Treasuries?

The one idea most widely agreed upon is that Trump will spur inflation and treasuries are the last place to be.

This headline says it all.

US Equities?

The nearly always wrong Harry Dent threw in the towel on his stock market crash prediction on December 19.

Please consider Economist who Predicted a 17,000-Point Stock-Market Crash Just 10 Days Ago is Suddenly Bullish.

Harry Dent is bullish.

Dent, an economist and one of the biggest doubters of the stock market’s rise since the end of the recession, said he no longer believes a crash is imminent for the market after persistently calling for a massive drop over the past seven years.

What changed the mind of the man who said that the market would be “cut in half” in 2011, called for a “year and a half” long crash in 2013, and said the Dow could fall 17,000 points as recently as December 10?

The markets ability to withstand the election of Donald Trump.

“All of my research pointed to signs that the end was near,” wrote Dent in a blog post last week. “The Dow was set to shed thousands of points in short order. How much has changed since November 8.”

“No matter how irrational this market is, I admit I’ve gotten the timing wrong,” said Dent.


I discussed gold on December 27 in Financial Times, Barron’s Tout Death of Gold.

Here are the pertinent headlines.

End of a Golden Era


For Whom the Bell Tolls



  1. Gold is despised
  2. Treasuries are despised
  3. Harry “wrong way” Dent is suddenly bullish

Magazine Curse

Finally, please consider Dow 20,000: Another Magazine Curse? Amusing Cover Flashbacks From Economist, Newsweek, Others.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock