It’s been such a hoot reading comments from people telling me that self-driving vehicles are decades away if ever.
The nay-sayers have been proven laughably wrong given Google’s New Self-Driving Minivans Will Hit the Road by the End of January 2017.
Waymo, the self-driving car startup spun-off from Google late last year, will be deploying its fleet of self-driving Chrysler Pacifica minivans onto public roads for the first time later this month, the company announced at the North American International Auto Show today.
The minivans will be hitting the roads in Mountain View, California and Phoenix, Arizona, where the company’s self-driving Lexus SUVs have already driven thousands of miles over the past few years. Also today, Waymo gave the public its first look at the self-driving Pacificas, which have been under wraps since the deal between Google and Fiat Chrysler was first announced back in May 2016.
Waymo says that for the first time, its producing all the technology that enables its cars to completely drive themselves in-house.
This allows the company to exert more control over its self-driving hardware, as well as bring the cost down to ridiculously cheap levels. In a speech in Detroit, Waymo CEO Jeff Krafcik said that by building its own LIDAR sensors, for example, the company was shaving 90 percent off its costs. That means sensors that Google purchased for $75,000 back in 2009 now only cost $7,500 for Waymo to build itself.
Velodyne, a top supplier of LIDAR, retails its sensors for $7,999. But by building its own (or contracting out the manufacturing), Waymo is able to get LIDAR sensors to its exact specifications.
When it spun off Waymo in early December, Google essentially conceded that it was dropping its plan to build its own car, instead refocusing its efforts on making the hardware and software needed to power self-driving. It may be too soon to say that Google is abandoning its plans to build a fleet of driverless cars without steering wheels and pedals. Previously, Krafcik made it clear that Waymo “is not a car company, there’s been some confusion on that point. We’re not in business of making better cars, we’re in the business of making better drivers.”
Waymo Minivan Arrives
Mom Have the Car Pick Me Up
Think about that headline for a second. Also consider seniors who do not like to drive at night and millennials who prefer not to own a car.
All the talk of no need, no desire, etc. gets thrown out the window.
Yes, we still need national regulation. But I expect legislation will be here by 2020-2021 at the latest.
Goodbye Trucking, Taxi, Limo Services as Known Today
I now update my timeline from 2022-2024 to 2020-2022 for millions of long-haul truck jobs to vanish. And that’s a very conservative date.
Taxi service will follow soon after trucking, if not simultaneously.
If you are a long-haul truck driver or airport transport driver, your days are numbered.
Related Articles
- January 5, 2017: 3,000 Ride-Sharing Cars Could Replace 13,000 New York City Taxis
- August 24, 2016: New Lidar Chips for Self-Driving Vehicles are Smaller Than a Dime, Cost $10 to Manufacture
- August 18: 2016: Uber Offers Driverless Rides This Month! What About Snow, Rain, Pigeons, 80-Year-Olds on Roller Skates?
Those who said sensors would drive the cost to $80,000 were more than a bit off. Also see point 2 above.
Those who say cars can’t handle snow, old men on roller skates, or kids veering into traffic need consider point 3 above.
Those who say theft will be easier are not thinking at all.
Those who said such technology was decades away were dead wrong.
Hugely Deflationary
This technology is extremely disruptive and hugely deflationary.
OT: I posted a new photography image today on a breaching humpback whale: Iceland in 16 Days: Day 8, North Iceland, Husavik, Whale Watching
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Just trying to wrap my head around the market for this…I can think of about 95 million people who won’t be driving them to work right now. That number should grow quickly.
Amazon could buy a fleet and install autoloading crapa-pults so they could deliver all the crap from China that people will be buying directly from China when the last retailers close down.
Think of it as Ground Drone-Ballistic Terminal Package Delivery (GD-BTPD)
Amazon is now talking about having floating warehouses that hover at 45,000 feet!
How they manage the logistics of stocking is questionable. But for deliveries, maybe they can have people loading drones and setting them loose to complete the order?
People have been talking about lots of stuff for a very long time. I’m sure if you search far and wide enough, you can find someone talking about delivering evil packages from China via “wormholes” and “disruptions of the space-time-contimuum” as well.
Stuki, I will be glad if Google can keep passwords safe. We are still seeing large databases getting hacked into on a monthly basis.
I’ll take of the driving if they will take better care if my data. These major data breaches can cause as much harm as Jie Sixpack does on the local highways.
In the future, maybe all of our products will come from heaven, just like our money does.
A good friend just returned from CES. He’s in the loudspeaker biz, audio. He said it’s not his show anymore. It’s all drones and self-driving cars and robots and AI and VR.
Think about that. This is the Consumer Electronic Show. What’s on display there is essentially obsolete already, and it will be in households worldwide this year or next.
Mish may be too conservative, can you believe it?
I am maintaining my optimism. Freed from unproductive, unsatisfying drudgery. people will discover new, more fulfilling ways to trade with each other. Things we can’t even imagine now.
As I said all along: my 2022-2024 date was possibly way too conservative. I openly mocked anything later than 2025 and stated 2020 was a possibility.
2020-2022 now seems highly likely for widespread truck automation
Mish, what is it about this article that changes your opinion to greater optimism? There are no details. Just another splashy press release, same as all those before.
Is it the lidor cost figure? Can they really deliver on that today, or is it a “projection”. We just don’t know.
Skeptics are arguing the SOFTWARE is hard, not the hardware. So take it for a test ride on a NON PREDETERMINED route. Report back to us and let the optimism (or lack of) *ride* on real facts, instead of press releases.
Mkkb – please think.
Look in am mirror and say these words to yourself “It’s only January 2017 … It’s only January 2107 … It’s Only January 2017.”
Next, look in a mirror and say something intelligent like “Whatever problems I see today will be gone by 2021 at the latest.”
I call this mindset “The Myth of the Static Universe.” It’s a fallacy whereby every counter-argument is predicated on the belief that the universe never changes: i.e., it’s impossible now, therefore it will always be impossible.
Very delusional. All of human history disproves it.
Gee, and I thought all our problems were going to be gone twenty years ago?
Sorry, not an answer. I’ve been in software long enough to know press releases are often fantasies. I can name product after product that was SURE to be the next big thing, and it never went to market.
This is becoming a religious argument. Some of us require facts. Others believe because they believe, because they were told by someone. I’ll give you your due respect when your timeline succeeds and you get your well-earned victory lap.
The religion (disbelief) is all on your end
The facts are obvious
Why do we NEED self driving cars when we have large numbers unemployed, many poor who will likely never be able to afford one, and given I do not believe they will be compatible with human driven cars, how will the poor ultimately transport?
They made private aircraft ownership almost impossible for normal folks fifty years ago with insurance and regulation costs to make it SAFE, which is WHY we don’t have flying cars today. Is this not the rationale for self driving cars…safety?
I share in your enthusiasm for driver less vehicles. I think it will eventually happen, but replacing millions of truckers within 5 years seems highly improbable. Even if a company decided to go fully automated today, it would likely take years to accomplish it.
It seems to me, especially for heavy trucks, maintaining a driver – even, simply as a contingency – is something that going to sick around a while.
There are other issues as well.
Each trailer is sealed at the point of shipment. The driver currently ensures the seal isn’t broken in transit. If the receiver rejects an automated trailer with $300k worth of product is the shipper just going to take the receivers word for it? Are they then going to be forced to put video cameras on the trailer’s seal? Whose going to open the trailers when they arrive? The lazy, surly dock workers? Not likely. Are we going to invent new self opening trailers? Will they be functional in the ice of Wyoming winters @ -30F?
Are we going to have unanimity on all of these issues from every shipper/receiver in the nation in four years? Doubtful.
I know Mish is jazzed by this but there are many, many issues still to be worked out. Don’t doubt that we’ll get there eventually but massive upheaval by 2021 simply isn’t credible.
If you can imagine a problem, someone has already designed the solution.
2020.
A non-answer answer equivalent to answering “Yeah, but still…” when given hard facts .
It is amazing how many problems we are solving that we had no idea even existed a few years back. While I have lived long enough to see a lot of crazy crap I never saw coming, I still have to wonder if it is technology that’s inevitable or the destruction of ourselves through our own designs.
All of these self driving trucks. Who is paying for their development and what are they using for money?
If we are going to have massive deflation and most likely massive unemployment as well, if we are to not starve, is it safe to assume we will become dependents upon the charity of (whom)?
If we no longer produce and can no longer effectively lay claim to any production, by what means do we claim ownership to its consumption?
Mish,
glad you are more aligned with my forecasts 🙂
let’s play a prediction game.
I predict by 2026 there will be between 20-30 million self driving ( level 4/5 ) vehicles on US roads.
anyone else ?
I can’t guess about the numbers vooch. But thw lifestyle change will occur no later than 2025.
Clintonstain, my answer was an answer. In a world of 7 billion people, there is an army of engineers solving these problems you are imagining. My position has always been clear and emphatic: humans are toolmakers and problem-solvers. It’s the prime directive.
This isn’t Star Trek. It’s the real world.
In addition to the benign problems of seals, opening trailers and docking there’s also the legal problem of what happens when an insufficiently tested automated semi kills an innocent family of five because it’s systems failed.
Impossible? When was the last time you used a sensor operated toilet and it flushed unnecessarily four times. Yesterday? Multiply that accident by hundreds and you’ll see why many will be reluctant to be a first mover.
I like Vooch’s idea of predictions but without any money bet on it it’s just hot air. Also what are the minimum miles driven before a self driving semi is counted “on the road”? Sitting in a yard someplace is not on the road.
So let’s keep going round and round. I’m satisfied that I’m right and you’re wrong. The next 5 years will vindicate me. Have a nice day clintonstain, peace out.
My son is 8 and I wonder if he will ever learn to drive…
If I had a young son I would be more concerned over he would ever learn to think on his own.
I think Mish is out there on most of his views (accurate on facts, extreme on conclusions, to be precise :-)), but on this, I’m hoping he’s right. My kids turn 18 in the late 2020s, and I’m expecting that neither will need a license.
Who’s writing the insurance policies on these vehicles? Lloyds of London?
For now, the manufacturers
Moral liability:
You so much as touch the controls and you are going to be the one paying.
We all love technology yet we all also know that we wouldn’t want to rely on our smart phones to save our lives. I have cnc machinery and the newer it is the more cantankerous, taking its own path on occasion. The tech people inform me that its just the “nature” of things and because all development has been evolved from prior technology there is never anyone who actually understands the whole thing. I know I’m old, and I know I’m cynical, but REALLY. Do we have fully automated flight controls that allow planes to fly without pilots OR ground control? WHY NOT? There are a hell of a lot less planes than cars and they have been using technology for years.
What we know is….the PROMISE is always far greater than the actual achievement, and that we ALL become the beta testers for years if not decades. AS a cell phone user since the early eighties, my phone STILL doesn’t work at all times…not even in my office or home and I live in a multi million population metro area. It offers many NEW conveniences, yet STILL is not a reliable communication. My office alarm works on cellular communication, and just had a tech out today to replace the communication board in it AGAIN because it fails about once a week.
My cousin works for Nokia and is working on the new 5G base systems, and it sounds like it is going to be absolutely full of issues…similar to what we saw with the advent of the “G” systems period. Since going digital, the phones are less reliable and have shorter range (I NEVER had to reboot my Motorola brick phone and it worked in elevators).
Self driving cars will not be a plug and play thing. Like with ALL technology, it will change us, force us to adapt to ITS preferences, and once down this path there will be no return. WE will be left to struggle with all of its limitations. When our car fails to operate, we will find ourselves on hold or online for hours PRAYING to find someone to help us?
It is simply amazing how easily we hand our lives over to technology before we ever understand what it truly costs…us.
Self driving and human driven vehicles will NOT be compatible, and we KNOW who will win because we know who will have the financial and government backing. Do we know what that means? Do we remember WHY we wanted our own car rather than relying on Mom to take us places? Do we really think a car that drives itself, that is insured by its manufacturer and ultimately mandated by the state, will take us where we want when we want?
Welcome to the BORG.
Excellent analysis, Mad.
IMO self-driving cars are another nail in the coffin of American independence and freedom. Driving a car gives the driver symbolic control over his destiny. Take that away and he becomes a ward of the corporate and state apparatus. A very slippery slope indeed.
You speak of cell phones. I refuse to buy one. If someone wants to speak to me bad enough they can call me at home. I got along just fine before the widespread production of cell phones. And I’ve done fine without one. If I’m not home they can leave a message on my recorder and wait until I return. I did go as far as buying a message machine. So I am open to compromise.
Mish definitely seems to be on the tech train, and I kind of get it. We all like cool fun new things, but I think Mish is looking at it from an investment mentality. Those who make their living from placing bets NEED change and always seek to be on the front edge, the next new thing, buying Microsoft, Google, Apple and FB….and getting RICH! Yet none of them seems to think about long term issues….it’s ALL good and there is NOTHING to worry about. It’s evolution, INEVITABLE, so why not profit?
So many hedging, looking to make big bucks from a financial collapse are no better. Buy gold and then hope to be Midas when it all falls.
It would be nice for people to concentrate on creating contentment, rather than desire. On earning and producing rather than being smart or prescient. We instead are intent upon creating a world where we would rather be lucky than good, rich for doing nothing rather than truly being productive. I don’t see how that works out good for most people. Statically most cannot be lucky, which leaves us potentially in a rough spot.
I have no idea whether the “investment mentality” that you attribute to Mish is the prime motivator for his strong promotion of the self-driving vehicle (as opposed to what values are in the long-term best interests for our society). If your assumption is correct and Mish articulated that in his blogs – it would help me better understand his position. As other commenters have noted – I see unintended consequences associated with the self-driving vehicle that goes unaddressed here. That concerns me. A technological development that would have a major impact on the social and economic lives of all Americans needs intense critical analysis from all angles.
But as an investment vehicle – I agree. The self-driving car would without doubt be a hot investment ticket item if or when the industry takes off.
“If you are a long-haul truck driver or airport transport driver, your days are numbered.”
————
Better start taking an online web page development course! 🙂
It’s amazing how fast this technology is snowballing. Seems like at least 20 developers and auto manufactures have test cars on the road and more are joining the fray every week
Artificially low interest rates always result in massive misallocation, by giving the impression that resources are less scarce than they really are. Lots and lots of activity being undertaken based on the pretext that resources are almost limitless, while in reality, the fundamentals to underwrite the whole castle in the sky, is simply not there. Then, in the end, by far most of the stuff turns out having been wasted and for naught, once the crackup boom has ran it’s course and the reality of paying for it all sets in.
Why is this amazing? Google isn’t selling or using those things. It’s just the next iteration of what they have been doing in the past: experimenting. All we know is that they have an awful new name and that liar manufacturers are ripping everyone off. What we don’t know is whether Waymo has made any progress in overcoming the inherent difficulties of self-driving cars. Wake me up when they have something for sale.
Have you refitted your two car garage yet?
I mean, your driveway can temporarily serve as a landing pod for the consumer scale personal helicopter that has been enroute since the 1950’s. Best you have a secure garage to stow the thing in because leaving it out on the driveway may leave it susceptible to hacking. LMAO.
What makes you think Waymow is going to get a terrible name too?
Waymo is the terrible name. I mean if you are capitalized in the hundreds of billions and the best name you can come up with is “Waymo”, you’ve got an issue.
Yes, you end up adding a W without having to even think.
AND it rhymes with playdoh…easy money makes it funny…sayso says so so he’s a dilly dally.
Edited for immature content.
They’re running out of names of eccentric visionaries (Tesla, Faraday, etc.) to poach in a one off effort to convince you they’ve had this already figured out all along.
Could go full primary with something like ‘Unavoidable’
LOL… sounds like it is a heatseeker.
I wouldn’t love anything more than watching TV, napping, drinking a glass of wine or two on my way to another location. If this becomes the norm, I won’t complain. No more traffic police stopping you, no more idiots driving mad, just relaxing soothing stroll on the roads with no stress.
Sounds good in that respect, but the full phase in of totally autonomous, apart from selected zones maybe, is a long way off. In the meantime self driving will gradually appear as complimentary to driver control, something that won’t ever be completely removed. Even if you have all cars self driving there will always be the need for some at least to be operable by a driver. How this phase in of the technology occurs is very interesting, and I think Mish is being a bit optimistic, though most basic goals will likely be met, and naysayers pessimistic – they will work endlessly in this direction. I find it amusing as it both begs a joke or two, as well as opening a new perspective/discussion on how we actually are and how the world is.
I’ve seen people talking about a “driverless car dividend” coming from never having to pay traffic tickets ever again. What are the realistic chances government reduces itself commensurate with the reduction in ticket revenue? Not good. Expect other nuisance fees that cover the difference.
Mainframe Software Central Registration , Reliability Update Maintenance Schedule Implementation Service Contribution, Surveillance Authentification Protocol Voluntary Impositions Tax etc.
Will the digital roadway enhancements be paid for with Yellen dollars or additional tolls, wheel taxes, weight levies, etc.?
Imagine all the law enforcement resources diverted from traffic violations to misdemeanors and felonies. Same size government, less crime. About as win/win as we can hope for.
Hmmm… How many laws is it the average American break every day? May not be the win you think it is.
Automated prisons. No more prison guards and their unions. No incentive to keep building prisons.
That’s funny….smaller government or less crime! Once we are under full surveillance 24/7 with every transaction, communication and location monitored and cars that ONLY go as fast and to destinations PRE APPROVED, there will be NO crime.
Happy times!!!
Get ready for mandatory toilet bidets to save the trees and keep us safe from fecal disease.
No more need to wipe. Just pat to dry.
Is wiping really a necessity now that we have Febreze. Think of the TREES man! Think of the trees!
You make crime sound so desirable! Can I have a brochure?
You make a gilded cages sound so warm and comfy.
Will they stroke my balding head to sleep at night and whisper that it will all be alright in the morning?
Dude, you can’t see the gilded cage you already inhabit for the bars. If you’re posting on this forum, you are on the grid. We are only arguing difference in degree, not on or off.
If freedom is what you desire, you’ll find it only in solitude.
Would it not be better for the economy to simply hire a driver as a chauffeur? It would have so much greater prestige and would actually be hiring someone rather than eliminating jobs?
And as far as Heavy trucks are concerned, it appears that our Muslim Immigrants may see them as a good “opportunity”. They seem to “enjoy” driving the big ones.
Let’s hope bankers allow CPI prices to become more affordable. Otherwise, all of the benefits of automation will once again go to bank printers, and not the public.
We need a gold standard to guarantee the general public derives benefit from automation, in the form of affordable CPI prices.
“Those who say cars can’t handle snow, old men on roller skates, or kids veering into traffic need consider point 3 above.”
Oh, they will handle them just fine, thank-you. The same way a mortuary handles a corpse.
No way in hell the displacement of truck drivers will be that quick. It might start in that time frame but the process will take decades. Additionally, long haul truck driver turnover is 90% / year, so it seems nobody wants the jobs anyway.
It is rare to see someone disprove his premise in the next sentence. Bravo!
“Mom, can you send the minivan to come pick me up from soccer practice today?”
“No, we don’t have one, and it won’t be legalised just because I want to watch a soap either. Instead of playing soccer go do something useful like joining the Autonomous Now lobby, I hear they are involved with those we need to depend on.”
Yep.
If the military can make autopilot drones why can’t we get a flying aerial rotary transportation (FART) program off the ground. Order it off Amazon and it flies itself right to your driveway.
Dude, just let go of it.
I like the sound of it.
Building a self-driving vehicle has never been an issue. But producing one that can drive safely and reliably on real roads? Big problem! Let’s see how well they do with:
– police hand signals
– road workers’ hand signals
– entering a lane of traffic where no-one wants to let them in
– negotiating with other drivers over some manouvre
– handling missing road markings / traffic signs
– handling wrong road markings or traffic signs
– unusual traffic signs that require language skills to understand
– getting out of the way of emergency vehicles
– the gazillion other unexpected occurrences that occur from time to time when driving that our adaptable brains can cope with but computers can’t
– Some kid charges earth to 10000v with his fly swatter
– Aircraft, that are only part autonomous and highly regulated, have a steady stream of software/hardware errors. 10 000 aircraft flying at any point, 1 bn road vehicles in use.
And on and on…
Only a fully adapted transport framework will suit crossover, and even then it opens up the ability to immobilise the whole system.
Arguments of comparative safety are good, but that requires real world proof. I don’t think fudging in autonomous is going to be successful, it is not perfection over human inability, quite possibly the opposite, it will be a very long path, but the tech. will very gradualy find its place.
None of the problems you sight are problems: Temporary road detours, that issue can be handled pretty easily with computer chips redirecting traffic. Another example of a non-problem, a police hand signal only requires a glove with a chip to communicate with the autonomous vehicle. For goodness sakes get your head out of your Luddite.
As for safely, I drive 35M miles a year, and cannot believe the new system will not be an improvement on the morons now operating autos.
John,
congratulations,
a man who can think!
I would be lying if I said that driverless trucks did not make me nervous to some extent. I will not pretend that I have a rational concern. But, I do think that there are some real issues, many of which are elucidated above.
However, I think that there really are some real benefits beyond removing potential human error (even if there is a possibly lower machine error potential that is introduced). The following two are real cost savings (beyond eliminating a salary) that will drive this:
1. Greater fuel efficiency. Being able to program efficient speeds for the load and surface will result in real savings. No human driver trying to maximize their speed regardless of cost.
2. No artificial limitations on how far a rig can drive in a day.
much safer because the big rigs will finally drive the speed limit
You will driving the speed limit also, whether you want to or not, even if your wife is in labor. Maybe though you can spend a minute or two explaining your situation to the vehicle?.I also assume the trucks will have no problem pulling into all truck weight scales and inspection checks, pulling over when they sense a police light behind, pull over when it hears a siren, pull over to the left when sensing an emergency or police car on the shoulder (without running over traffic on the left), read caution signs, read construction signs, reduced speed limit signs, deal with a detour, can detect in advance a kid riding his bike on the shoulder, know when it needs fuel and is able to pull into a fuel station, can deal with bad weather conditions on the road, ice, snow, rain, etc, etc, etc, etc I can see trillions of public money being spent making streets, highways and all vehicle services usable for the manufacturers robot vehicles; new vast government agencies setting standards.
40,000 actual real road deaths per year in the US alone due to human error. Why do you not mention those actual problems instead of plumbing the seemingly infinite depths of your imagination?
Know that freedom advocates will disagree that saving just half of those loves would be worth it, as if driving were the ultimate expression of freedom smh.
loves = lives, but interesting typo
Have no fear. They are busily removing “human error” from all aspects of our lives. Look at the hell they are raising over we deplorables (defective humans in error) who voted for Trump. They obviously will need to make some “adjustments”.
We use science fiction that has come to pass as a legitimization for embracing even more, yet how many of these futurist fictions ended well for humanity….even with all of their safeguards, empathy and good intentions?
It just seems to me that our CAUSE is to eliminate everything human about us. We have been indoctrinated to hate everything about us, to discard everything that has got us this far as being “inhuman” while apparently they believe it is a consummate symbol of being human.
We complain of over population, push abortion and birth control, embrace alternative lifestyles that are premised on non-procreation, and then ensconce ourselves in a protective bubble in the desperate attempt to prevent “one life” from being lost.
The “cost” of independence is well known, especially to those who practice it. Sadly, those opportunities are being eliminated over time. Between laws and enforcement of politically correct language and behavior, our only sense of individual self will be relegated to your choice of clothing and tattoo. We will not be able to take our lives into our own hands, as it will no longer be OUR life….probably already isn’t. It’s property of the collective…an asset to be coveted or disposed of as needed.
We have been aware of the “inevitability” of many things headed our way. What I am not clear on is why we should embrace all of it?
Please stop parroting stupid nonsense that has been refuted a dozen times. It makes you look like a person who can neither read nor think.
@mad
I think you are spot-on. The end game is transhumanism. I believe Brave New World is your sci-fi novel template for the future.
You really seem enamored witb the “good old days,” when freedom and smallpox reigned. And 100 people perish daily on our roads.
Look, this is not about advocacy, technological progress is a force of nature, as unstoppable as an earthquake. No one will force you to ride its tide — there are primitve cultures in Brave New World as well — so just fight for your little niche while the rest of humanity, which you are powerless to “save,” continues apace on the road to Utopia.
I’ll be waiting for the legislation to protect Google from lawsuits when their software crashes. Then I’ll believe it….Whereas there is a strong economic incentive for
Remember the string of eleventh hour legislation designed to limit liability in the Y2K non-debacle?
Back in 1999 there was a bill getting introduced every couple of weeks to try and fend off potential torts from software failures. Boy, it sure helped that 1099 was was not an election year.
The real question is. : Who will protect us from Google?
What if I have a boat on a trailer in my garage? How is the Googlemobile going to hitch itself to that?
By using the new auto-hitch function of course, silly.
What makes you think you will allowed to own or pilot a privately own watercraft in the future. Are you aware of how many boating deaths there are every year? WHAT could you POSSIBLY be thinking!!!
Ha! Oh crap, they’re gonna take my boat?! Well fuck-all. I’m out.
Hey! We just need to make you safe damn it! It’s a scary world out there and we NEED protecting. I’m starting to worry if I’m safe to drive home by myself tonight!
What the self driving car engineers NEED to worry about is how they will deal with the wives in the passenger seat constantly berating the automated driver. They had better be TOUGH!
I wasn’t thinking; there will probably be Googleboats that the Googlemobile will drive you to and deposit you into. I just want to know if they’re going to let me hang onto my 2007 Honda, boat & trailer for another 20 years as I planned, or will there be a day I have to turn it in.
I know how much this topic means to you, Mish, but it’s infancy is a bit colicky:
https://www.wired.com/2016/12/ubers-self-driving-car-ran-red-light-san-francisco/
Yes, I know we’re all ready, set, go on this. I cannot say I am enthused.
I know, the current human-operated system of Russian Roulette is so much more desirable. Love wondering what drunk, distracted idiot is going to end my life or someone I care about.
Now imagine that car being a semi and T-boning a family’s SUV with 80,000 pounds of momentum and you get the problem.
The people pushing this have Star Wars action figures at home and have more blind faith in technology than common sense.
Did you read the article
In a statement, Uber spokesperson Chelsea Kohler said the car was being operated by its human driver
Solution. Get rid of the driver
No, I did not read that. I’m not denying anything about this topic, merely hinting that I don’t trust it.
Also, *G!* I have Star Wars action figures (mostly my sons, though I claim one or two for costuming purposes), but not blind faith in electronics. So many variables can change response time for circuitry. Has there been substantial testing for extreme weather? I don’t know. I just can’t seem to get a comfort zone with this sort of thing.
You have good reason not to believe the hype. Trust that instinct.
Freightliner has been testing a dual op semi (computer & driver) that is automated but that reverts control back to the driver when it senses the computer is out of control.
Imagine that. You’re sitting in the driver seat jamming to Siousie and the Banshees with the computer driving and then computer gets you into a winter/jackknife situation at 65 MPH that it can’t get out of and transfers an impossible situation back to the driver. You’ve got 1.3 seconds to save your life… GO!!!!!
All that’s being transferred is liability. The automation maker will claim the accident is the driver’s fault. These “dual op” systems are utter nonsense. Either the computer is driving 100% or the driver is @ 100%.
If the car is fail-safe why the need for a human driver?
Doesn’t that defeat it’s purpose?
Because they need someone to transfer liability to when the computer screws up…
Day 0: Waymo or Uber vehicle self-drives into a crowd of people. Victims sue Go-Ogle/Uber and California DMV.
Day 1: NYT, Wapo, CNN, and NPR jump in with notes dictated to them — Russians did it. So Ogle, Uber, and DMV are all innocent.
Day 3: Since Russians did it, time to put embargo on them. Cars come back on the road. People get mowed down everyday and Russians get blamed.
Day 4: Time to move troops to various Russian borders to teach them to stop hacking into cars.
Truck automation will never happen, not by 2025, or even 2125.
The only thing that could happen, is that we have a souped up cruise control to drive on highways, with heavily upgraded high tech infrastructure.
You ought to read more. Expand your limited knowledge!
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Uber’s self-driving truck company just completed its first shipment: 50,000 cans of Budweiser
Robot truckers, this Bud’s for you
Oct 25, 2016, 6:00a
In the early morning hours of October 20th, an 18-wheeler tractor trailer pulled into Colorado Springs, Colorado, bearing 50,000 frosty cans of Budweiser beer. Normally, this would not be a noteworthy occurrence, but this truck was driving itself, marking the first time that commercial cargo was shipped by a self-driving vehicle.
The journey began 120 miles away at an Anheuser-Busch facility in Loveland, Colorado. The truck — a Volvo big rig equipped with cameras and sensors — was one of five owned by Otto, a San Francisco-based self-driving truck company acquired by Uber in August. A human driver piloted the truck to a weigh station in Fort Collins. From there, it drove 100 miles without human intervention to Colorado Springs, with the driver monitoring the two-hour trip from the sleeper berth. But once it entered the city limits, the driver took control.
…
http://www.theverge.com/2016/10/25/13381246/otto-self-driving-truck-budweiser-first-shipment-uber
So, from your quote, it wasn´t self driving? Sorry to say, there is no millions of jobs going anywhere. This is just commercials!
Yes, it WAS self-driving for part of the journey, about 100 miles if I remember correctly.
Had you taken the time to read the actual article you would have known this. Or are you reading challenged?
Those mennonites still driving horse and buggy must feel really foolish right now.
What ARE they going to do???
It’s apparent to me that our lives will NEVER be worth a crap until we have self driving cars and devices in our homes that can think of everything we want and need before we even know it and have it waiting on our beckoned call. The effortless and completely SAFE life!
Where did I put my checkbook???
Orwell is spinning in his grave.
More like Ray Bradbury.
Ray constantly tried to warn us how it would all end.
I agree w/ Mish that it would be highly deflationary. In many states, professional driver is the most popular profession. It is supposed to be a fairly high paid job amongst the lesser skilled.
I disagree with his timeline based on common sense. The technology is just not there unless something major is on the timeline and unknown to us non-techies. The way I look at it, mapping apps (Google, Wayze) fail far too often to be relied on by an autonomous vehicle fleet. I’m too frequently trying to go to a bar and get routed to a neighborhood in the back. This is unacceptable. I have never driven a Tesla (nor do I wish to frankly), but there is recent video on Youtube of 2016 Tesla cars failing miserably at self-driving. It looks like it is more trouble than it is worth making sure you don’t die in an S curve. Then there is the overwhelming national security issue: the self-driving cars and mapping applications could be hacked to cause mass fatalities. My modern computers crash all the time. I can hire a hacker on the dark web for peanuts. Software has been around for a long time and still does not work anything close to flawlessly. At least when I log on I’m not going 65 on a wet road with deep ditches on the side and being ferried by a non-sentient program. Then there are the laws. Tech companies will wish to push this technology on society immediately. Most people, as evidenced by polls, want to wait for the bugs to be worked out before widespread deployment. Few people want to be crash test dummy for unproven technology. Certain laws will have to be overturned anyways where, for instance, humans are required to be behind the big rigs.
Self driving vehicle positives outweigh the negatives massively. For example: far fewer vehicles on the road, resulting in much less congestion, more timely delivery, and eliminating close to 100% of accidents caused by human error. This saves tens of thousands of deaths and injuries each year. This reduces law enforcement costs, insurance costs, and health care costs dramatically. Fewer vehicles means far less pollution. This again lowers health care costs (respiratory). Families need to purchase fewer, if any, depreciating assets (vehicles) and can invest the money in more productive assets. Increased efficiencies and productivity for both businesses and families. I could write a book on the positives. Negatives include transitional job loss which has been going on for 300 years, yet we continue to create more jobs than we lose, and a perceived loss of personal freedom, though I personally look forward to being chauffeured around while reading or doing something productive. I say bring on the self driving vehicles!
Why would self-driving cars result in “far fewer cars on the road”?
You could stuff more in a car or truck when you didn’t have to worry about seeing out?
Or with less people working, there would be less money to spend, so no reason to get on the road and go shopping, which is what a huge percent of the American population does with their free time!
Fewer cars on the road because individual car ownership will be phased out in favor of the more efficient (and massively deflationary) ride-summoning service/app.
Current ownership utility (amount of time a given car is in use) is 3%. If car-summoning simply doubles that to 6% there would be half as many cars on the road. Now imagine 50% utility.
I bet it’s a long way off to American loss of autonomy, and I am not a Luddite either.
Four years can seem like a long time, I agree.
Why fewer cars? An Uber study says they could replace 13000 NYC taxis with 3000 Uber self driving vehicles. Households will reduce vehicle ownership from 2 or 3 vehicles per family to 1, or sometimes none. No need to have tens of thousands of dollars tied up in personal vehicles that sit 97% of the time. Then there are Uber Drones which will pick you up and fly you to where you need to go. No need to use the roads at all. Fewer vehicles will reduce road maintenance costs and there will be no need to expand the roads as much (ie more lanes). There will be less need for expensive subway expansion or costly underground roadways in major cities as traffic will flow easily with self driving vehicles.
Mish — are you saying that there will be self driving cars ALL OVER THE USA within 5 years, or are you saying there will be isolated markets where self driving cars get used?
You keep making the first argument (which is demonstrably false), but then offering evidence for the second argument.
Mountainview CA might be allowing self driving cars — but at the same time San Francisco is banning them after three highly publicized safety problems (running red lights, barely missing pedestrians, etc). Those two cities are within 30 minutes of each other, in the same state / same DMV.
Pittsburg PA recently banned self driving cars, because the software locks up when it encounters large iron bridges with heavy grates (there are more than 160 such bridges all over Pittsburg).
And sorry to burst your bubble, but voice recognition technology has been available for more than a decade, and it still has LOTS of trouble handling accents and/or people with colds.
Saying the geeks in Mountainview (who talk to their phones more than to humans) can text their destinations is one thing. Serving poorer neighborhoods, handling drunk people, etc is a different matter
While the auto-driving software handles nicely paved, clearly marked streets in California — it fails miserably with snow, ice, heavy rain, potholes, and off camber roads… as in thousands of miles of roads all over the country.
All those stories about US infrastructure falling apart is a big reason why the self-driving software is going to meet the same fate as voice recognition… each problem is small and isolated, requiring a custom solution.
There will always be obstacles as this technology develops, but it will be commonplace within 5 years. Just like air travel and space travel (which were similarly dismissed by many) it will never be perfect, but once this technology is established, accidents, deaths and injuries will become rare; not everyday occurrences like they are today because of driver error. You will see private car ownership plummet even further in major cities. It will take longer in rural areas.
Bingo
It’s amazing how the deniers cling to silliness