So much for that expected strong Christmas. Economists were giddy across the board, but other than autos and gas, retail sales were flat in December. Christmas hype did not live up to its billing.
Check out reality vs. Econoday Expectations.
- Retail sales minus autos were 0.2 percentage points below the lowest economist’s estimate.
- Retail sales minus autos and gas were flat and 0.3 percentage points below the lowest economist’s estimate.
Disastrous Christmas for Dept Stores, Sporting Goods, Electronics, Appliances
The above table from the Census Department Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services report.
L.D. stands for leased departments (floor space leased out to others).
Amazon had a great Christmas Season. So did autos dealers, assuming those were real consumer sales and not channel stuffing. The box retailers got clobbered.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Quite a different sign of reality than the stock market.
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Wow – gasoline prices are 20+% higher year-over-year, yet gasoline sales are only up 6.3%?
Yet more Fed-induced economic distortion, as in “lower demand = higher prices”.
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Christmas sales must have been very very good.
Look what Bezos just bought – The largest mansion in Washington DC!
http://uk.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-buys-23-million-mansion-in-washington-dc-2017-1?r=US&IR=T
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Yes – both of them!
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Bezos has a monopoly. He deserves it.
Ivanka will be his neighbour. Surely, Chelsea will have to move nearby. Maybe even Meryl Streep.
DJT will soon tweet to tell us they’re all nice, terrific people.
For the first time in his life the Donald has billionaires lining up to see him. Greatest dream come true. Way better than Trump U. or Miss Universe pageants. If only his dad were still alive to see it.
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I like Amazon, but no Bezos. He clearly hates Trump. There’s no way he’s moving to DC because of Trump. More likely to strengthen ties between him and the CIA.
That same property sold a few months earlier for about $4 million less than he paid for it.
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I’m thinking we’ve got a fantastic four ahead of us.
Pussy Riot slams Trump!
Holy sh*t – the whole world is watching.
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Of course the auto sales were end-of-year channel stuffing…few people buy autos at Christmas, none in my HOA…
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We have a local Chrysler dealer in our burg. He has a lot and buildings that cover about 3 acres that are usually full of cars. He actually owns 10 acres with 7 being grass. Every inch of the 10 acres is covered with vehicles. Everything is on sale. Channel stuffing indeed.
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Evansville, Indiana would be nearly empty if not for car lots; Half that town is nothing but lots. Irony was, when I was looking to get a car(2011), nothing decent in a price range that was acceptable. Used to be 5-7k would get you a pretty decent used car. Further back in 1990, a new car could be had for 10k. Now it’s lease, lease, lease and all those new cars sit forever on those damned lots. Yeah, “channel stuffing.”
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Look at the chart that Mish provided. MV and parts are up 6.8% from last December. No channel stuffing in December 2015 ? Only this December ?
If we want to support our negative confirmation bias we can call today’s release bogus and cherry pick line items on the report to support that bias.
I remember a part of a speech Warren Buffett once gave to an audience of business students in the 1990’s. He mentioned that when he started his fund in the 1950’s, he would encounter bearishness from smart money managers.. including his own father… who tried to talk him out of starting his own fund.
There were a lot of famous intelligent wealthy In wall street Industry professionals who were openly voicing their bearishness on March 6th 2009 when the S&P 500 was 667. Some have since turned bullish, some remain bearish.
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I have not been the one to use the channel stuffing argument much. ZH does all the time. I merely said we will see. And we will.
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Those numbers continue to look decent. Hat tip to Bill McBride with his relentless optimism throughout the last few years. I was a sceptic and i was wrong.
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Total (excluding MV and Parts) up 3.4% YOY. That is far better than I would ever have expected this time last year. Looking back 12 months ago, i was thinking there was a 50/50 chance of a steep recession. I was dead wrong.
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I agree. I look around central florida and the place is booming. Tons of new, high-paying jobs. Construction coming back. Most of the housing inventory has moved and unemployment is almost gone.
I didn’t believe it would happen either. Kind of snuck up on me.
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As long as every government in the US can continue spending money it doesn’t have, and selling bonds that will never be redeemed, the economy will continue puttering along…The end of the story will be gruesome, but that’s a problem for our children and grandchildren.
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Well, in Florida, governments are prohibited by the state constitution from spending money they don’t have. Chicago and the feds are a different matter of course.
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Around here, Costco and Sams club are always packed. Amazon vans everywhere. Everything else is empty. People will only buy at the lowest price.
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In 10 years, I expect all departments stores in the US to be gone.
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Many of the things my kids wanted most were sold out by the beginning of November. Just about the only way to get anything Nintendo this year was to indulge those playing EBay arbitrage vs. the box stores overly-generous return policies.
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” …but other than autos and gas, retail sales were flat in December.”
That is not the impression i had from KNX news radio this morning. Sales were presented as good, lead by autos.
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I’m not surprised. Crowds seemed smaller this year, and I saw more unused floor-space in stores. Economists need to get out of their Ivory Towers and do real world research.
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The Census Bureau and the BEA should reclassify autos under fabricated metals in line with fabricated sales. It is probable that actual auto sales were just as weak as the rest of retail. In the UK new car sales are 20% overstated. If there is one reliable statistic it must be taxes, and given that income tax (payroll and non-payroll) is stagnant it is not surprising that retails sales are stagnant.
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