Both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP model forecasts today.

There was little change in either.

The discrepancy between the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and FRBNY Nowcast model forecasts remains large.

GDPNow 4th Quarter 2016 Forecast: 2.8% — January 13, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on January 13, down from 2.9 percent on January 10. The forecast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth ticked down from 2.6 percent to 2.5 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

gdpnow-2017-01-13

Nowcast 4th Quarter 2016 Forecast: 1.9% — January 13, 2017

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 1.9% for 2016:Q4 and at 2.1% for 2017:Q1.
  • This week’s news had little impact on the 2016:Q4 nowcast and a small positive impact on the 2017:Q1 Nowcast.
  • Retail sales data moved the 2017:Q1 Nowcast up by 0.2 percentage point.

nowcast-2017-01-013a

Nowcast 1st Quarter 2016 Forecast: 2.1% — January 13, 2017

nowcast-2017-01-13b

A 0.9 Percentage point difference for 4th quarter GDP looms large. Soon we will find out who is correct, well sort of.

I say “sort of” because GDP revisions can go back more than a decade. And there are always at least two updates (three reports) for the current quarter.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock