Conventional wisdom suggests National Front candidate Marine le Pen will make it to the second round in French elections, then lose in a landslide to whoever her opponent happens to be.
I believe le Pen’s odds of winning it outright are far better than most think.
Current Polls
Chart from Wikipedia, with image clips added.
Top Five candidates
- Marine le Pen: National Front – Eurosceptic, Anti-Immigration – 25%
- François Fillon: Republicans – Center Right – 24%
- Emmanuel Macron: En Marche! – Socialist – 17%
- Manuel Valls: Socialist – 11%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon: Left Front – Socialist – 13%
In France, the winners of each party square off in around one of national elections. If no one gets 50% of the vote, the top two square off in round two.
With about 25% or so solid votes, le Pen is likely to make it to the second round. The others battle to see who comes up against le Pen.
Eurointelligence Reports
January 13: Yesterday night the seven candidates for the left primaries had their first debate. It was sometimes painful to watch and it is not clear how much the audience took home from the long catalogue of measures the candidates were quizzed about. All tried to differentiate themselves from François Hollande, and lashed out against the common enemy François Fillon. All were eager to show how presidential they are and how well they represent the real socialist heart. Though it did not look like they succeeded. One blogger wrote that there was one irreconcilable division, that is between the candidates and their audience.
François Fillon, meanwhile, has his own rebellion to deal with. Laurent Wauquiez, Christian Estrosi, and other ex-Sarkozists, insist on making their own mark and call for changes to Fillon’s programme. When Fillon made his big appearance in Nice, Estrosi told everyone in front of the presidential candidate that he is not a “Filloniste”. Laurent Wauquiez, who was fired by Fillon, is leading this mini-revolt. He recently called for a de-taxation of supplementary working hours, one of Sarkozy’s key measures, which is absolutely not in the Fillon’s programme, writes Marianne. Brice Hortefeux, another Sarkozy ally, said they want to enrich the programme. Fillon, however, remains firm and will not give in to those demands. His campaign chief dismissed those efforts as coming from bad losers or small players. The risk is that he may alienate the Sarkozy wing, though.
January 12: For Macron, no politics goes without narrative and no narrative without ideal. So, what is his ideal? Some friends call him a real libertarian, others a real democrat, who has yet to find a socially empathetic narrative. In 2015 he outlined his three dreams – equality, Europe and industry. When it comes to Europe, he may well compare with Jacques Delors, who like him was not loved by the Socialist party and made his way. But this comparison only holds on Europe. Macron’s economic ideal is inspired by new-Keynesian thinking, and the idea that social improvement is achieved by eliminating unjust rents that keep up barriers in society.
January 11: Emmanuel Macron is the most pro-European among the presidential candidates, though will he really be ready to confront the Germans and change the course of the eurozone? We have our doubts, but he is the only candidate with at least an explicit eurozone agenda. In his speech at Humboldt University in Berlin yesterday he promised that, if elected, he would propose a common eurozone budget for investment and financial assistance in case of shocks. At the EU council in December 2017 he would propose democratic conventions in all EU countries for 6-10 months.
We note that his Berlin speech did not make headlines in the French press. They were more interested in comparing Macron with the Socialist candidates or to François Fillon, or in the question whether Macron exaggerated his arguments. There is a clear national bias in reporting, as we have observed so many times in the past.
The Front National took the chance to pick up on the point that Macron gave his speech in English rather than French. Pauvre France, tweeted Marine Le Pen. Florian Philippot writes it only shows Macron’s disrespect for the French language, and that he does not believe in France.
The latest Ifop poll for Paris Match shows Marine Le Pen (26%) advancing to the pole position for the first round, overtaking Francois Fillon (24%). Macron comes third (17%), far ahead of the Manuel Valls (10.5%). Le Pen is still expected to lose in the second round against Fillon (64% to 36%) or Macron (65% to 35%). We agree with François We note that his Berlin speech did not make headlines in the French press. They were more interested in comparing Macron with the Socialist candidates or to François Fillon, or in the question whether Macron exaggerated his arguments. There is a clear national bias in reporting, as we have observed so many times in the past.
The Front National took the chance to pick up on the point that Macron gave his speech in English rather than French. Pauvre France, tweeted Marine Le Pen. Florian Philippot writes it only shows Macron’s disrespect for the French language, and that he does not believe in France.
The latest Ifop poll for Paris Match shows Marine Le Pen (26%) advancing to the pole position for the first round, overtaking Francois Fillon (24%). Macron comes third (17%), far ahead of the Manuel Valls (10.5%). Le Pen is still expected to lose in the second round against Fillon (64% to 36%) or Macron (65% to 35%). We agree with François Heisbourg, who tweet that this is a wildly unpredictable election.We note that his Berlin speech did not make headlines in the French press. They were more interested in comparing Macron with the Socialist candidates or to François Fillon, or in the question whether Macron exaggerated his arguments. There is a clear national bias in reporting, as we have observed so many times in the past.
The Front National took the chance to pick up on the point that Macron gave his speech in English rather than French. Pauvre France, tweeted Marine Le Pen. Florian Philippot writes it only shows Macron’s disrespect for the French language, and that he does not believe in France.
The latest Ifop poll for Paris Match shows Marine Le Pen (26%) advancing to the pole position for the first round, overtaking Francois Fillon (24%). Macron comes third (17%), far ahead of the Manuel Valls (10.5%). Le Pen is still expected to lose in the second round against Fillon (64% to 36%) or Macron (65% to 35%). We agree with François Heisbourg, who tweets that this is a wildly unpredictable election.
Wildly Unpredictable
I agree with Eurointelligence this is a wildly unpredictable election.
Already we have seen “wild” results with former president Nicolas Sarkozy unexpectedly getting clobbered in the first round of the primary by Francois Fillon.
Germany a Loser No Matter Who Wins?
- Le Pen: Eurosceptic – Seeks better relations with Russia
- Macron: Pro Europe but seeks a common eurozone budget for investment and financial assistance in case of shocks.
- Mélenchon: A socialist who will not be in favor of reforms France desperately needs
- Valls: After the 2016 Nice attack, he was booed for saying that “France will have to live with terrorism.”
- Fillon: Fillon aims to reduce the public sector and cut 500,000 civil-service jobs. He wants the state healthcare program (securité sociale) to work better with fewer payments. Fillon is in favor of increasing the retirement age to 65. He seeks better relations with Russia.
Of the five, Germany could work best with Fillon. But his pro-Russia stance poses at least a minor problem.
Fillon vs. Le Pen
Can Le Pen Win?
I think the current odds are wildly off, just as there were in the US with Trump. Le Pen is eurosceptic, but she will not seek to gut civil-service. Her message that France throws money at the EU will resonate with some. She regularly denounces France’s bandwagoning towards the USA. Her anti-immigration message will appeal to anyone who blames immigration for loss of jobs.
Since Bottoming in November, Le Pen has steadily picked up voter approval vs. Fillon.
What happened? Fillon had to disclose more and more of his policies in his primary vs. Sarkozy.
Many of Le Pen’s ideas are socialistic at heart. The socialists will not want an increased work week, hundreds of thousands of civil service jobs cut, etc.
In round one of the French presidential election there will be lots of mud thrown, some of it at le Pen, but most of it will go to Macron, Mélenchon, Valls, and Fillon, all wanting the second spot.
It is by no means certain le Pen makes it to the second round, but that outcome is highly likely.
And if le Pen comes out better than expected, especially if there is a big mud-fight among the others, her chances in round 2 are far better than most believe.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The big issue is corp tax harmonisarion.
France is uncompetitive at 33%, others are lower and even down to 9%.
Merkel/Schauble say harmionization needed (back door fiscal union).
There will be a push to a common standard to help France compete but at the cost of Slovakia, Ireland etc possiby needing higher rates else the French revenue drop (until business takes off) will be a bigger strain on deficit levels.
Now – forget France, they won’t leave the EU as it protects them very well. Look to Ireland.
They are about:
1) To become Net Contributor.
2) Have tax over-ridden by the centre so losing a competitive advantage & control.
3) Have their largest trading partner (UK) leave the EU.
Germany/France will sacrifice Ireland as France is more important.
Give it a little time and Ireland will wake-up. They are about to get screwed.
Related :
Keeping people in, keeping people out
http://chronicle.gi/2017/01/schengen-changes-will-bring-tighter-border-controls/
N. Ireland likely to be only controlled at ports and airports
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jan/15/brexit-border-would-make-sitting-ducks-of-northern-ireland-police
Noticed UK said ready to drop rates to whatever level necessary, Ireland having to find new friends was another headline.
Here is Hammond
http://chronicle.gi/2017/01/uk-may-change-economic-model-if-shut-out-of-single-market-says-hammond/
Irish dairy viewed in trouble after Brexit also.
The EU will work to set France to be a beneficiary of Brexit as far as they can for the simple fact that France-Germany ARE THE EU. The rest are passengers as far as they are concerned.
Germany will do all it can to keep the French onside. They will pull out all the stops. Every lever pulled to get France out of a funk. Germany needs France to keep the EU and Euro going, France needs the EU for protection.
Expect every contortion imagineable to make sure France is firmly in the EU. They are capable of very drastic actions and Junker has stated plainly what he wants to happen.
For all the huff-puff LePen doesn’t stand a chance.
See Bam Man’s comment below.
Forget the financial side, the bureaucratic elite side ( idiots) , the edifice is crumbling.
Crumble together into a heap of dictated trash or make the effort to save and set aside the most valuable remnants of nation from which to rebuild.
There is a point approaching where both choices will be no good, desperation is a fine motivator, but is no substitute for forward planning. Shame they had to give theirs away, I suppose they will deserve the result.
They have no one to lead with the guts to break away. Crises are necessary to achieve the result they are looking for. Crises are expected and welcome as it moves them closer to the goal. The answer to all crises is more union, integration, EU.
Last week one of the main German political types stated clearly they will do whatever needed as Germany has been the #1 beneficiary of the EU and they would not be able to explain to their grand kids if they don’t fight to keep it going.
The French, for all their huff and puff, know no different and have no credible leadership to take them out. It’s a symbiotic relationship where most sides lose more by leaving than staying.
It will continue to move forward, slowly, to Empire status.
It ends as all empires do – some time.
Lowering taxes resulting in reduced revenues for bankrupt governments.
Central bank interventions buying up assets, inflating values and distorting markets.
An entitlement mentality that encourages everyone to do less, try less, and EXPECT MORE.
How does this play out?
It sure looks to me that the only short term play is PRINT.
PRINT^^INFINITY^^
They don’t care Madash.
They want the influence, to be the ‘providers’, to be the solvers, the deciders, the controllers, by any which way. The population don’t want to be disturbed.
These countries are becoming fully dependent on each other, but above all, becoming dependent on the management of their new dependency. So it is no longer more/less trade or vacation or not in another country, it is what some ‘common’ board decides that will adjust their reality to the not so brilliant or terrible…. but ‘always for the better’ .
People won’t bite the hand that feeds them until they smell where it has been.
I don’t begrudge any symbiosis between two countries, open trade or freedom of movement.
Germany is infected. The population have been promised what the French cannot deliver. The French had to persuade German entry into the Euro. The compromise of EU stewardship to Germany is not France’s alone to offer. The European political framework that is fed and managed by EU is not representative of what is going on in different countries, and I sincerely doubt it will be able to forge a stronger position from which to organize the continent.
EU is understood to hold the future. Many people are looking for why it is being witheld them. Better have a pretty good answer is all I can say.
Time will tell.
Progressives worldwide fail to understand that falsifying polls and producing fake news damages their own cause most of all.
If not this time, then she will win next time. France is literally on the verge of becoming a “failed state”, and five more years of status quo politics (either Fillon or Macron) will certainly push it over the edge.
It will have to change.
The corp tax rate will fall and until there is a pick-up in business as a consequence there will be cuts or EU subsidy increases paid for by which suckers? It may be combined with a blind eye to Debt/GDP by the ECB for a period at the behest of Germany.
However, a few groups will be aggrieved as the working week will have to increase, pension age rise, government shrink & employment law change to reduce costs of hiring & firing etc etc.
Thes type of changes won’t go down well in France so expect some ructions unless the pain of not changing is more acute than the pain of changing. Their agricultural sector has been cossetted for years by the common agricultural policy at substantial cost to the rest of the EU.
Take it to the bank that the EU and Germany will bend over backwards to keep France on side. France is too important to the EU/Euro and the EU is too important to France for them not to pull out every stop.
It won’t change for the UK but it will for France. Germany needs France. Screw everyone else.
Posting from Paris
As much as I hate to admit it, you’re right
The whole world is verging on a failed state. They have all tied themselves to the same wagon and at this point can only pretend to be different or special. The sooner people realize that their government cannot save them…that their government is their enemy intent on consuming them to save itself, the sooner they can begin to prepare to take care of themselves. Even while we fight to preserve our borders, the world’s economy is unified in its ability to sink us all. Ultimately, it will be each of us for themselves and that part of their communities that share in their perspectives.
I had real hopes for America with Trump, but it is now apparent to me that even IF he becomes president, the progressives and financial cabal will never allow him to change our circumstances. It appears that they and their European counterparts are intent on a war with Russia, which will inevitably evolve into a world war of untold proportions. They will destroy us all in pursuit of their power mad world domination. And automation gives them belief that they can survive just fine without us. Our only purpose is the pretense of democratic policy, and as we see, when that fails, brutish tyranny is just as well as it disposes of the “problem” of useless eaters AND dissent at the same time.
Prepare.
Sorry to be such a downer.
If there’s another major Islamic terrorist attack anywhere in Europe between now and French election dates it would boost Le Pen’s chances significantly.
An attack on France would likely seal it for her.
Round one is on April 23. Round two is on May 07. A lot could happen between now and then.
Even the limp-wristed French have their social tolerance limits.
It is perhaps not well known internationally but Fillon is a big Eurosceptic: HE VOTED AGAINST THE MAASTRICHT TREATY. We can imagine that he privately approved of BREXIT and we should not be surprised if he takes the exemple of an independant England as a model. He is a very strong Anglophile and has spoken at Universities there for years.
No – he says Brexit will be a disaster for the UK and although he wants to see changes to the EU he is very pro-EU. Very. A vote for Fillon is a vote to try to reform elements of the EU and not to leave it.
He knows France has problems without the EU protections.
Marine Le Pen is a National Socialist, unfortunately that title is forever marred by the German experience. I believe she has an excellent shot at winning, the French, like most Europeans, incline towards socialism, once they get the idea that she is essentially “make France great again” and does not incline towards slash and burn Thatcherism the French people will get behind her. It helps that she is an attractive person and her opponents are a bunch of wankers (like the republicans against Trump!)
Roger – I just can’t see that. Business will be pushed to France to keep it on side including substantial Military spending for the EU army with Thales etc etc. In return the French will understand LePen threatens the protections they enjoy.
The French will vote for the status quo with a slight angle – Fillon.
Maybe; but the immigration issue is huge, not with the elites who want to minimize it, but with the people who see the catastrophe every day. It was “the wall” that won Trump the election, and the victory for “Brexit”, I believe the same is true for France, Netherlands and Germany.
Interesting times!
Will the European natives be all that upset at immigration as long as they are assured their entitlements stay intact? After reading of all of the labor disputes that seem completely ridiculous to me, I can only assume the ONLY prevailing “value” they nationalistically hold is work minimization.
Government PROMISES are national pacification. They will have to offer only more and more.
Anyone who suggests austerity will be hung from the lamp posts.
That’s a big call. Everyone and their dog thought the Brits and the Americans would vote for the status quo and look how that turned out …. this time is different?
Turbulence dead ahead, UK residents would be sensible to hold some gold as the GBP will be battered further. EU will use this period to frighten the sheep. France will vote for the status quo.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/15/world/europe/uk-set-to-choose-sharp-break-from-european-union.html
Fish: It has gone beyond that, provided the welfare state is protected, Europeans will vote for national socialists. The experience of normal working and middle class people in European cities is now so traumatic that the invader issue is paramount!
The Sunday Times, Times, Guardian and BBC are all mouthoieces of the establishment.
“……..the Sunday Times quoted an unnamed source in May’s office as saying her words were likely to cause a MARKET CORRECTION. A spokesman told Reuters such reports were speculative and did not comment further.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-4121554/Britains-May-call-national-unity-major-Brexit-speech.html#ixzz4VsBMy79N
I am French, and political addict.
Short version : no
Long version : Maybe
French presidential election has two rounds, a first rounds with 7 to 10 candidates. The first two are qualified for a 2-candidates second-round which determines the winner.
The “moderate right”, whose history can be summed up as “relentelessly fighting National Front bowing to every socialist demand” has championned a clearly conservative candidate, Francois Fillon. Francois Fillon is hated by half of his party, but beloved by right wing voters, so beloved that he sweeped the french republican primary (official score is 67% for Fillon, but since socialist sympathizers were allowed to vote, and polls say up to 15% of the primary voters were avowed left sympathizers who voted for his opponent Ali Juppé, a muslim-loving centrist …)
Francois Fillon is the current bookmaker favorite (and I’ll vote for him)
Francois Fillon is a strong right wing candidate, but may fail in the first round and place after LePen (who is almost guranteed the biggest score) and a left challenger (either mister Macron, a center-left globalist, or a new challenger from the socialist party). Should this happen (this is 30-35% likely IMHO), madame LePen has a strong chance to win the election (IMHO a 80% chance, unless the election is rigged)
On the other hand, a second round confronting Fillon to LePen will be a sweep due to socialist voting Fillon to spite LePen.
The positive thing, though, is that Mr Fillon is not a vanilla sub-socialist. He claims Lady Thatcher as an inspiration, and claims a clearly right wing, antiglobalist agenda, despite the outrage of the RINOs that constitute most of the “Les Republicains” senior figures
So, LePen of Fillon, both outcomes are hopeful for France
Thanks – Appreciated!
Mish
Thanks too
I also greatly appreciate your excellent blog
But will anyone be able to change French working habits & expectations?
Of the possible second round matchups – please rate le Pen’s chances
Le Pen vs. Fillon
Le Pen vs. Macron
Le Pen vs. Valls
Le Pen vs. Mélenchon
Eurointelligence says not to rule out Mélenchon. Says he is a darling of the left with a very good social media Twitter following like Trump.
Does Hollande supporting Macron hurt Macron’s chances?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-15/hollande-may-back-macron-for-french-president-friend-tells-jdd
Thanks
Mish
Le Pen vs Fillon 0.01% (roughly the probability that Fillon goes on a “chainsaw massacre spree” in a school during the two weeks between the two voting rounds). There is a decent chance that Fillon collapses in the electoral campaign, but should this happen he won’t be in the second round. As written below, options would then be very open, and the fact that I rate this matchup as unwinnable is like saying “if Fillon fails, he will fail before the final round”.
Le Pen vs Macron 66.6 % Macron will grab center right voters, but LePen’s socialist agenda may get her unexpected left-wing support. Not to mention that Macron elected will cost a lot of permanent jobs to hacks of the socialist party, whereas LePen will mean a few bad years of reconstruction. I was pretty confident on Trump being elected since 2015, currently MSM would rate this scenario as 5% for Le Pen, but they were wrong on all recent populist surges.
Le Pen vs Valls 66.6 % This election would spin as “do we keep Hollande’s protégé or vote for available change”. This, plus butthurt right wing voters fed up with being coeerced into voting for a socialist, means that a right wing tide may help Le Pen. As for Valls, he has a decent (verbal) record on law and order or moderate pro-business stuff, so he can win versus Le Pen. the french press would now rate Miss LePen at 20% in this scenario
Le Pen vs other socialist 95% (Hamon or Montebourg). Those two are likely candidates (first round of the socialist primary is sunday) , both are progressive socialists who may struggle to get votes from an eliminated Francois Fillon. The current momentum + debates would suggest Hamon as the likely official socialist candidate. As it may matter in an election, both Hamon and Montebourg are rated as “very good looking”
Le Pen vs Melenchon 99% neo-communist Melenchon is so hated by common sense people that right wing voters won’t be bullied into voting for the communist.
Hollande’s support of Macron was officially denied
The socialist party candidate is not yet known. If it is Valls, Valls and Macron are very close politically (which favors Melenchon), that should keep Hollande neutral
If Hamon or Montebourg, Hollande has more affinity to Macron, even though as a a socialist leader he won’t officially disavow his party’s candidate
Hollande is not REALLY impopular. He promised France that a wonderfull socialist program led by him that should bring France a apotheose of rainbow farting unicorns, and was elected. French voters see mass unemployment and economic crisis (instead of the rainbow farting unicorns) but since the socialist program was fantastic, the fault must “obviously” be Mr Hollande himself.
So Hollande’s programme with a different first comrade is what center-left voters want, Hollande’s endorsmeent would actually be a significant asset for Macron. But Hollande has far too much party loyalty to OFFICIALLY endorse Macron. Should Valls not be the official socialist candidate, Hollande’s tacit approval of Macron will however be a decent boost (and a “secret de polichinelle”, in english it would read an “open secret”)
Very interesting. Thank you.
A lot can happen until election.
How do you think terrorist attacks on the order of Nice or Berlin anywhere on European soil would impact the election?
Would this favour Fillon or Le Pen?
If Trump and Putin can come to some kind of understanding that hits the islamic state hard in Syria, I believe that the islamic state would go for spectacular attacks on soft targets in Europe or the US.
They need a constant flow of recruits and they need to motivate their followers.
No one wants to join losers. Europe and especially Germany are very vulnerable at the moment.
I like your post, yet I’ll oppose it dire answers.
— Terrorist attack may matter little. Le Pen and Fillon are seen as both vigilant on Islam and tough on terrorism, Valls is non-military-islam-friendly yet tough on terrorrism. Macron is seen as a softty yet …
— Never undersetimate your ennemy. Is-lame-ic state is very smart (and very powerfull), they will never allow an attack if it secures an electoral victory for a candidate they see as hostile too them. NEVER understimate that ilk. While I want them exterminated up to the last sympathizer, I definitely think they know when an attack would hurt their cause and temporize. If Macron has a good chance of winning, there will be no islamist attack in France till the final poll.
— Islamic state has been conquerig huge territory with little support, thay are supremely intelligent and deadly. They will never push for an attack if it may elect a politician they fear. NEVER underestimate our ennemy. NEVER.
— European right wing rumor says there was, from 95 to 2005, a tacit deal betewwen UK and islamist where UK tolerated them as long as nothing bad happened on the Queen’s territory. Islamist scum kept their part of the deal
— Should Trump and Putin reach an common cause, as I hope, to bring might and justice to islamists, scum will lay low til political turmoil hits either Washington or Moscow or Beijing or hippie Berlin. Our isllamist ennemies think time, numbers, superior fertility and superior willpower are on their side. Whether right or wrong, they are formidable ennemies we should NEVER understimate
Dear american readers, should islamist take Europe, they’ll overrun America next, whether this requires them to spend either years or centuries.
My view of a good Islamist joins general Custer’s view of a good Indian.
The rising tide of nationalism vs a common European identity will be seen in the results no matter who wins in the end.
This is but the first round in the end of the E,U.
The French as well as the English do not appreciate rule from Brussels.
France is already a failed state. It really doesn’t matter who the captain of a sinking ship is.
The EU isn’t a state, its not solvent, it lacks any sort of democratic legitimacy, and is deliberately destroying its own tax base in favor of some weird Peter Pan fantasy.
Whether Trump dumps NATO or merely reduces US involvement — the rest of Europe is in no position to make up the difference. They cannot (are not able to) pay their existing promises; suggesting a bunch of drunks are going to create an EU army is patently absurd.
This is essentially what Theresa May told Europe — albeit she was slightly more diplomatic about it (very slightly). Continental Europe is failing. The UK finds itself in the same position as Russia — they might as well try to keep paying customers in Europe, but future growth and focus must be elsewhere.
France society is in a negative mood. This favors LePen tremendously since female politicians and outsiders tend to get elected when a country’s stock market is in a bear market. The UK was in a bear market / recession when Margaret Thatcher was elected.
France is spoiled for choices
10 Socialists vs 1 moderate (Le-Pen)