Regardless who wins the French presidential election in May, Angela Merkel may have a tough go of maintaining Franco-German solidarity.
Please consider François Fillon Urges Angela Merkel to Soften Stance on Russia.
François Fillon has urged Angela Merkel to soften her position towards Russia and harden her policies on migration, as France’s presidential frontrunner flew to Berlin for the first time since his victory in French centre-right primaries.
Speaking on Monday after meeting the German chancellor, Mr Fillon insisted on the need to restore better relations with Russian president Vladimir Putin, saying it would help to eradicate the Islamist terror threat to France and Germany rooted in war-torn Syria.
Mr Fillon said he opposed Brussels’ plan to spread refugees from the Middle East and Africa across the EU to share the burden of an unprecedented migration to Europe.
He also implicitly criticised Ms Merkel’s choice to engage Turkey in EU membership talks in exchange for Ankara’s commitment to keeping migrants on its soil.
“We have differences on the question of refugees and the economy? Let’s face up to them the better to overcome them,” Mr Fillon told German MPs and journalists at the Konrad Adenauer foundation, a conservative think-tank. “France cannot accept more refugees. The right to asylum does not equate to migratory disorder.”
Russia should “be a major partner”, Mr Fillon said in Berlin. “We need to get out of this deadlock that we put ourselves in and which does not benefit anyone,” he said.
Differences With Merkel
Assuming this comes down to the expected runoff between National Front candidate Marine le Pen and Republican candidate François Fillon, let’s assess that setup from the point of view of Merkel.
- Fillon: Pro-Russia, anti-Turkey, Opposes Merkel’s refugee spreading
- Le Pen: Pro-Russia, anti-Turkey, anti-immigration, anti-euro, anti-EU, Pro-Trump
Of course, this assumes the final pairing comes down that way.
Macron En Marche
Emmanuel Macron runs as an “outsider” for his newly founded En Marche party. His chance largely depends on ability to capture Leftist vote from the winner of the Socialist primary runoff between Benoît Hamon and Manuel Valls.
Macron plays himself up as a centrist who supports Merkel’s refugee policy. Can he win the Left vote on such a platform?
Socialist Round Two January 29
Hamon came out of nowhere to win the first round of the Socialist primary. The second round between Hamon Valls is on January 29. Like Trump, Hamon is a social media darling. He uses Twitter to state his positions.
Reuters says Hamon may win French Socialist ticket, but presidency beyond reach.
I noted Hamon’s radical left policy proposals in French First Round Socialist Primary Winner Proposes Tax on Robots, Universal Income, Right of Foreigners to Vote.
The above image from Wikipedia.
Consensus opinion is that le Pen cannot win. Consensus opinion also says the socialists cannot win. So what happens if Hamon squares off against le Pen?
Independent candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon is nothing more than a disgruntled socialist. What if Melenchon dropped out and supported Hamon? Could that energize the Left?
The above odds from PaddyPower as of January 23, 2017.
A win by Macron or le Pen is not out of the question.
The socialists worst fear is a match-up between le Pen and Fillon, but splintering suggests that is the most likely outcome.
Many of le Pen’s views are far left of Fillon. This is not a shoe-in for Fillion as most expect.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock.
Fillon doesn’t want ‘refugee sharing’ but each day 50 to 100 migrants rejected of asylum in Germany head over to France for application there
They talk of one picture while another similar continues without attention or answer.
Fillon is no fool. He sees Brexit, Trump and LePen all pushing him to the right. He either moves right or surrenders the election to LePen.
Once again, from a french guy
==> Attitude towards immigration and Islam matter. Same for Russia, who tackles Islam the right way in Syria, though Russian’s army’s courage cannot mask its lack of ressources. Just imagin what the US army would achieve should they get assigned to carpet bombing muslim shitheads. Back to French politics ==> This is why I think that Fillon AND LePen are clear favorites versus a left wing candidate (Macron included)
==> In France (and all of western Europe) school teaches future voters that voting for the far right is an evil sin. Some defy the “orders”, but most those already vote for the natioanl front. So a runoff election Fillon-LePen is 100% Fillon, for the VERY reason that if you tend to frequent socialist voters in your family, or close circle of friends, you would be better coming out as a socialsit than admitting voting for the Nationalist Front. LePen may be closer to thei ideas than Fillon, the same way Glasgow Rangers and celtic Glasgow are close : crossing the line means excommunication from your family. No kidding here
I’ll vote Fillon, but unless it comes to Fillon versus LePen I’ll vote agaisnt the left
Sorry I meant
So a runoff election Fillon-LePen is 100% Fillon, for the VERY reason that if you tend to frequent socialist voters in your family, or close circle of friends, you would be better coming out as a pedophile than admitting voting for the Nationalist Front.
LePen might be a compromise to some. Right but not Thatcherite.
It’s a slam dunk Fillon. As for pro-Russia so is the new German President apparently & German industrial movers and shakers for demand reasons. for the sake of Euros they will sell anything to anyone.
As for Fillon and Merkel — he must be seen as standing up to Merkel on the unpopular issues. Too close to Merkel and he’s handicapping himself.
Whoever wins, if they push through necessary changes in France, there will be pushback. Voting in a Thatcherite is one thing, adapting to the poicies of Thatcher is quite another. Not clear French attitudes would adapt.
As for refugees, once they have citizenship France can’t stop them moving.
People wanting to live in a more muslim orientated environment will move to where the mosques are etc. Paris, London etc.
Fillon can do nothing to stop that under Schengen. He can argue against non-citizen migrants being distributed but many will go for EU citizenship and then he’s powerless.
LePen should make an issue of that if she wants to open up some difference between them.
A problem. Draghi has said people can leave but must balance up their Target2.
This is a major barrier to exit in the case of Italy and may be for France – not sure what Target2 is for France. Not clear if the balance would have to be paid in Euro or a new currency but for Italy it looks like 100’sBn – have read Euro 340Bn.
As others have said for a while – the Euro is a burning building with no exits.
Italy, France etc wil be forced to fiscal union. I wonder how long before some group gets so pissed off with high youth unemployment they pick up pitchforks.The Euro straitjacket is beginning to rub.
Being in the EU & Euro means your country is no longer truly sovereign. Some populations have yet to fully understand that and the implications. Only a matter of time before they find out.
Imagine voting for a partly touting Euro exit only to find there is NO REAL WAY OUT. Voting would be a waste of time, then breakdown occurs as confidence in the ballot box is lost, then trouble starts.
A rat trap Marie LePen, and you’ve been caught.
France is not Greece
If they are not happy with our Target2 balance they can shove either shove it up their fat assies, or send Brusels mighty Panzer-Divizionen pick it.
Maximus Minimus said:
You can always argue that the Target2 imbalances are the result of the inflexible euro. I like your idea of sending panzer divisions to Brussels for target practise. That seems to be the only viable solution at the moment, and backed by popular demand.
Brussels’ law enforcement agencies aren’t going to do a damn thing. A ruthless dictator has more rights in Belgium than an EU citizen does.
But the German public would probably go apesh*t, especially if France then thought it wiser to close the borders … would not want to be a migrant there then as the left would be out of power in a moment.
“François Fillon has urged Angela Merkel to soften her position towards Russia and harden her policies on migration…”
I hear a Trumpet in the background.
France is in a negative mood that favors challengers, 3rd parties, and female candidates. LePen has a greater chance than polls would indicate, so great that the media may purposely be minimizing her exposure.
Fred Rogers said:
Correction — “Merkel may have a tough time maintaining Merkel-Hollande solidarity.”
Somewhat of a truism. Neither of these global government types had the backing of their electorate. But put the goals of George Soros ahead of the needs and goals of the people they supposedly represent.
The people of France (outside of Paris anyway) and the people of Germany are probably still on the same page. But the politicians forcing the EU on everyone are not.
The electorate of the G7 did not ask for a global giant corrupt government with no accountability. That was the fantasy of Soros and the creepy criminals at Davos.
John Folger said:
one thing good about merkel,,the eu will brake up because of her bs
Well, my money would back Fillon to win and the EU to continue trucking.
Merkel has anointed Fillon, he gets the job.
If the French vote Fillon instead of Le Pen then they are stupid. All Fillon’s position are just election rhetoric and will change the minute he is voted in.
Remember, even Merkel said in 2010 that “Multiculturalism has utterly failed”.