Congratulations to UK prime minister Theresa May for poking a finger into the eyes of EU nannycrats.
EU rules say members cannot negotiate trade deals until exit from the block is finalized, but you can kiss that rule goodbye.
The Wall Street Journal reports British PM Theresa May Says U.K.-U.S. Trade Talks to Begin Immediately.
High-level talks between the U.S. and the U.K. on strengthening trade ties will begin immediately, Downing Street said Saturday, following British Prime Minister Theresa May’s meeting with President Donald Trump in Washington on Friday.
Mrs. May’s office said a team of U.S. and U.K. officials would start scoping out what can be achieved together before the U.K. exits the European Union. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who Mrs. May met in Ankara on Saturday, made a similar commitment to increase trade links with the U.K.
The British leader has said the U.K. is reshaping its role in the world as it leaves the EU, including by renewing its relationship with both new allies and longstanding ones. But her trip to Washington and Ankara prompted criticism from some opposition lawmakers, who said she was cozying up to leaders whose values didn’t align with those in Britain.
Mrs. May on Saturday declined to comment on Mr. Trump’s executive order on refugees, saying the U.S. policy on immigration is a matter for the U.S. This prompted criticism from opposition lawmakers.
Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour Party, said Mrs. May should have stood up for Britain by condemning Mr. Trump’s order. “It should sadden our country that she chose not to,” he said.
Tom Brake, a Liberal Democrat lawmaker, said of Mrs. May’s reaching out to Mr. Trump and Mr. Erdogan: “This is a deeply alarming sign of her priorities for diplomacy in post-Brexit Britain,” Mr. Brake said. The pro-EU Liberal Democrats said Mrs. May is seeking trade deals with “unsavory leaders.”
While the U.K. is in preliminary talks on trade in more than a dozen countries, under EU law, the U.K. can’t finalize any trade deals with other countries while still a member of the bloc.
The U.K. has tested the limits of that rule. Over lunch at the White House on Friday, Mrs. May and Mr. Trump agreed to maintain the same trading relationship the U.S. currently has with the U.K. in the immediate aftermath of Brexit to ensure stability for businesses, Downing Street said. Mr. Trump has said he wants to agree as soon as possible to a trade deal with the U.K.
Testing the Limits or Clear Violation?
It’s hard to say why Theresa May cozied up to Erdogan (simple defiance of the EU? NATO?) , but it makes sense to start trade negotiations with the US now.
Working out a deal now to be signed the moment Brexit is official seems more like a violation of rules as opposed to “testing the limits”.
Regardless, what the hell can the EU do about it?
Yesterday, the Financial Times reported Theresa May will not find it easy to broker a US-UK trade deal … “British agriculture and financial services may suffer at hands of Capitol Hill”.
That all depends on what Trump’s primary motive is doesn’t it?
If Trump wants to assist in the collapse of the EU, he might be willing to give the UK a very favorable deal.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Rules….Aren’t they both sovereign states, or is the British Isles a vassal of the EU?
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Yes, sovereign states can do what they please, including starting wars they will surely lose. However, within the international framework of law, a formal treaty among two or more sovereign states, is considered to become the domestic law of each state. That is, what each state agrees to do or not do under the treaty becomes legally binding statute under each state’s legal system.
NAFTA is a formal treaty. President Trump, nonetheless, has said the United States will no longer honor it. (He says this by unilaterally asserting that the treaty will be changed to better favor the US.) So sovereign states do breach international treaties.
However, it is considered better form to untangle international treaties with the consent of all partners. At some point, perhaps just now, the UK must decide whether to untangle its national relationship with the set of EU treaties in a formal way or whether to just walk away.
As the old gambler said, “You’ve got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away, know when to run.” The Prime MInister has a delicate job ahead of her, one of bluff and bluster, one of seduction and compromise.
How will it all work out? Well, there’ll be time enough for counting when the dealing done.
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Delicate smelicate. These are governments we’re talking about. Since when have you seen them be delicate. They are great big blunt wooden clubs. You don’t do brain surgery with them.
Move on. The EU is going to have to die. Thank god for this as the member states are suffering.
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Each of the members of the EU already unilaterly decided to ignore the Maastrict Treaty.
Other than the UK (and Germany which is prohibited by WW2 relics) — all the allegedly “civilized” european members of NATO decided to ignore their obligation to put 3% of their GDP into military spending… and after the treaty was modified to 2%, Europe once again decided to ignore that too.
Europe is a continent full of hypocrites. Everybody else must obey treaties, but Europe doesn’t. Europe is a joke
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Spot on!
Thank you
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This is the legal status. Everywhere there is BS. Read link below and see what you think.
“Lawyers for Britain Committee Member and barrister Francis Hoar has researched in depth the legal arguments about whether the UK is prevented from negotiating and concluding international trade agreements before the date it exits the EU. He concludes that the argument that the UK is prevented from doing so has no support from the EU Treaties or from the case law of the Court of Justice of the European Union: see Negotiating International Trade Treaties before Exit.”
http://www.lawyersforbritain.org/int-trade-before-exit.shtml
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Well the EU constituents regularly flout EU rules and it is only now that they are getting pissy about sticking to the rules. Either all the rules count or none do.
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Chart of % of years deficit rules flouted
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“That is, what each state agrees to do or not do under the treaty becomes legally binding statute under each state’s legal system.”
Yeah, and marriage vows typically state that they are valid “until death do us part,” but who can reasonably expect a spouse to remain in the same house with a dangerously abusive spouse until the divorce is final (are the EU members not talking about ‘punishing’ the UK)? Much as I hate to picture AM in a wife-beater, if the shirt fits ….
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Didn’t a famous leader once point out that treaties are just “scraps of paper?”
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If anyone believes only the poor working class and less well educated voted to leave the EU you are wrong.
Unbeknownst to many there are some forces at work that were deliberating well before the referendum.
The delay to triggering Article 50 is to enable some preparation but was also down to Cameron not allowing formal contingency plans.
Work was going on elsewhere and he was in the dark.
The exit will have pain and tumult associated with it but don’t think for a minute that there aren’t serious brains that voted to exit and we’re readying various elements.
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May wants friendly relations with Turkey so the elite can vacation in the country without fear of terrorist attacking them.
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Turkey was always considered a budget vacation spot. Especially popular with russian middle class. Elite doesn’t vacation there.
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It’s not the elite who holiday in Turkey
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Trump will screw her over big time – poor UK farmers – the few.
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I don’t think you know that.
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HT is a troll… ignore it and maybe it will go away or maybe Mish will ban it
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Poor French farmers when CAP comes under the hammer.
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I think that both Trump and May know that the EU is a financial and social structure built on a foundation of sand and are orchestrating a plan to distance our 2 nations from the fallout once the EU collapses. Trump has no desire to destroy the EU. The EU will destroy itself. He only wants to avoid the financial tsunami (or as much of it as possible) and the social devastation that’s bound to happen
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If the EU globalist project starts to grenade it will take pressure off of Trump quite possibly. If so then it is in his interest and in fact in the interest of all us peasants everywhere.
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@LFOldtimer – “I think that both Trump and May know that the EU is a financial and social structure built on a foundation of sand and are orchestrating a plan to distance our 2 nations from the fallout once the EU collapses. Trump has no desire to destroy the EU. The EU will destroy itself”
+1000
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The old British empire – UK AU NZ CA is compatible with the US culturally and legally so free trade should be very easy and there won’t be the problems with regulatory or legal arbitrage.
Much of the EU, once Brussels is out of the picture is also compatible.
Corrupt, crony countries that pollute everything and let workers die because it is cheaper aren’t good trading partners. Death arbitrage?
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It begins. Speculation on how The Donald will rule. This 100 day honeymoon will be very interesting.
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I dig him. He’s awesome. I love watching the snowflakes cry.
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“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who Mrs. May met in Ankara on Saturday, made a similar commitment to increase trade links with the U.K.”
This must be coming from the USG which now means Trump.
The US played the China card in dealing with the Soviet Union during the ’70s and dumped Taiwan.
Russia played the China card in dealing with West recently and won when Trump got elected.
Now, Ankara has played the Russian card in its recent dealings with the West – and it appears to be paying off for them so far.
Now the US may be trying to get back the Ankara card from Russia before it’s too late.
But what is to be done regarding Syria. Is Turkey going back to “Assad must go”?
I wish the USG would quit playing games and do what’s right.
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Geographically, Turkey is caught between the mess in the Middle East and the mess in Europe. That doesn’t mean Erdogan is without any fault (no political leader is). It just means 99% of the bullsheet that Obama and Soros came up with has zero merit.
If the EU had any brains in their heads, they would have rolled out the red carpet for Turkey to join the EU; bringing a huge market, younger demographics, and a gateway to selling European goods (beyond weapons) to the middle east.
Instead, Brussels worked to promote Soros’ objectives — and that arrogance will cost the EU everything
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The reason there was so much foot-dragging over Turkey’s entry to the EU was because the West rightly feared the cultural and economic impact of the inevitable flood of young Turks (now there’s an evocative phrase) that would follow.
Merkel’s Million Muslim Mob perfectly justifies that fear.
Turkey is probably the most geostrategically important country in the world and the CIA’s backing (at least in the eyes of Erdogan and probably in reality) of the Gulen coup was just one more huge blunder from the murderous incompetent fools.
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Actually the French unilaterally vetoed Turkey’s membership to appease Greece.
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Opening EU to Turkey demographically is not a good idea, opening trade yes. Either way EU messed Turkey around and tried to play the theme.
The visit of May there is recognition that Erdogan is in charge, I try to look on it in trade terms but apart from a strategic involvement, and hence leverage, I don’t like arms deals, and less so as official trophy.
UK imports from Turkey far more than it exports to
https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/turkey/tradestats
On the arms front the US is main supplier, and of western countries Spain and Germany are high on the list:
6. Turkey
Share of international arms imports: 3.4%
Main suppliers (share of importer’s total imports %), 2011–15:
1st: USA 63%
2nd: South Korea 9.5%
3rd: Spain 8.9%
http://ceoworld.biz/2016/02/22/the-worlds-10-biggest-arms-importers-in-2011-15-infographic/
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The EU started as a glorified trade bloc. Then the arrogant fascists in Brussels started snorting George Soros candy and decided to turn the EU into a stateless super-state.
Turkey should have been encouraged to join the EU — trade bloc.
The fascist disaster that Soros/Brussels transformed the EU into was a huge mistake, and Europe will suffer for allowing it.
Trump and May are working to diversify the US/UK portfolios — because we all know the EU is collapsing on itself, and smart leaders try to minimize the damage that will result.
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All for trade relations, especially bilatteral as they allow flexibility. May walking out with an arms deal on first visit was not smart though in my opinion, we had similar with Cameron when he first took office, a round of the ME with arms sales. It just comes across as the prime interest. I don’t hold a view one way or the other on Erdogan, he is what he is in a country which is as it is. All said however, the arms sale shows UK committed to endorse his leadership, which at best will pre-empt some of the international uncertainty that surrounds recognition of his position, as well as closing the door to attempts at involving the UK in becoming part of any opposition to him.
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‘Turkey has jumped into the top 10 in the rankings of destinations for German arms exports as Ankara responds to increased domestic security concerns resulting from a wave of refugees fleeing wars in the Middle East, according to a government report in the hands of dpa.
Ankara has moved up from number 25 in the first half of 2015 as a destination for German arms to number 8 in the first six months of 2016, with the volume of armaments shipped to Turkey totalling 76.4 million euros (83 million dollars), the report said.’
http://www.dailysabah.com/defense/2016/10/25/turkey-in-top-10-countries-for-german-arms-exports
‘No. 5 – Germany
Germany’s share of global arms exports fell to 4.7 percent during 2011-2015, down from 11 percent in 2006-2010 when its exports had doubled from the previous five years. Germany’s arms exports are showing rapid growth, however, although much of the growth has come from the sale of air refueling tankers to Britain, among other large-ticket items like submarines. TOP CLIENTS 2011-2015 – United States (13 percent), Israel (11 percent), Greece (10 percent) 2006-2010 – Turkey (15 percent), Greece (13 percent) Pictured: U.S. Army 1st Infantry Division soldiers fire Heckler-Koch 5.56 mm G36 assault rifles at a firing range in Orahovac, Kosovo, Serbia, during the NATO-led peacekeeping mission there. Germany delivered 8,000 of these rifles to Kurdish peshmerga forces fighting in Syria.’
http://www.upi.com/News_Photos/Features/Worlds-Top-5-arms-exporters/fp/3105/?spt=su
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This is what a leader looks like. Amazing how upset people get when you simply try to enforce the laws on the books. President Trump has the support of the military and police. He has generals in charge of the these agencies. That is all he needs. He meant it when he told Homeland Security that their job was to enforce the law. Wait until he gets the full force of the Justice Department behind him when Jess Sessions gets confirmed.
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The English Liberal Party may well think ill of president Trump, but in the end the agreement is between two countries. Hopefully they thinkless badly of the United Staes as a whole. A hypothetical agreement that if the UK actually leaves the EU — as has not yet happened — then the rules governing US-UK trade will not change, does not appear to give either side much room to do something new that is disadvantageous to the other.
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The UK liberal party hold 9 seats out of 650 or so. They’re not exactly a driving force in politics. Being attacked by them is akin to being savaged by akin dead sheep.
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It’s all about ‘values’. F#ck jobs. We may wallow in poverty but we’ll hold the moral high ground!
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You said it was hard to see why May cozied up to Erdogan – WHAAAT!
It so bloody obvious.
She doing her job – selling weapons and securing future lucrative contracts for her businesses bosses.
She works for BAE etc.
“… she prepared to sign a £100m fighter jet deal that Downing Street hopes will lead to Britain becoming Turkey’s main defence partner.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/28/theresa-may-signs-100m-fighter-jet-deal-with-turkeys-erdogan
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Turkey is pivotal. It will become a regional super power and ignoring that is a mistake. May is indeed doing her job. You want a secure eastern Mediterranean and substantial part of Middle East, better talk to Turkey.
Also, the EU has fooled around with Turkey. They must now understand the UK will act in UK interests and if that means dealing with Turkey on military matters, so be it. The EU needs to get its own house in order.
The UK needs trade, friends and goodwill with all. Harm no one that exhibits goodwill towards our islands and our people.
EU threats of damaging the UK economy will probably backfire one way or another.
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Lindsey Lohan supports Erdogan. That is good enough for me.
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Probable reason May talked to Erdogan is that both are prospective outsiders, and it was probably at the request of Turkey, so a side trip at best. The trade, business, political ties with the US are orders of magnitude more important. But then, Turkey is the frontline with ISIS; was May simply a go between Trump and Erdogan? We might never know.
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EU rules and EU treaties say the member states aren’t allowed to run deficits over 3% of GDP. Nor are they allowed to have national debt levels above 40% of GDP…
…. so France and Italy are both out of the EU for on-going treaty violations (lots of smaller countries too, just picking on two “anchor” countries).
EU rules and treaties say the ECB isn’t allowed to do most of what Draghi has unilaterally decided to do…
… so the ECB is out of the EU for regularly violating treaties and EU law.
None of the major countries falsely claiming that they want to keep the EU alive are obeying the rules they themselves claim are vital to the EU’s survival.
Now they are going to whine about the UK not following rules after they leave? The UK has left in practicality. No one cares about article 50 any more than they do the other rules / suggestions
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NATO says 2% of GDP defence spend, most ignore that too.
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Just who does the EU need defending from?
The only power likely to attack is the US which already occupies most of it.
What they need is an enhanced coast guard sinking invading boats in the Med.
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Typical lib-tard short sighted thinking.
South Korea spent many years telling (not asking) the US to leave… then North Korea started acting up and suddenly the South Korean government couldn’t say enough nice things about US troops.
Europe has plenty of people that hate it. No one wants to “conquer” a bloated welfare state, but plenty of other countries want to tear Europe a new one — starting with all the middle easterners that are detonating bombs and driving trucks through French and German shopping centers.
And for the pompous lib-tards in Paris, the ghetto they have been building outside of Paris is stuffed with Algerians who were screwed under French colonialism. The ghetto has overflowed … turning Paris into a giant police state.
But you are right in saying that Europe did this to itself, the US should not shed our blood and treasure defending socialist fallout. Let Europeans face the consequences of their own arrogance…. and with the underfunded militaries they neglected for decades.
The US should absolutely let France (and the rest of Europe) fall.
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I do like well done satire, please play again soon.
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Trump has already pitched his preference to bilateral agreements , saying that dealing with a union of countries ends up mired in regulatory red tape. That makes it obvious what he has up his sleeve and it’s pretty obvious now what the EU has stuck in their ass… they don’t like free trade because it takes the politicians out of the control freak mode. Those idiots are on their way out.
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The FT is gobshite, no other way to describe it.
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Sir,
You wrote:
“It’s hard to say why Theresa May cozied up to Erdogan (simple defiance of the EU? NATO?)”
The answer: BAE Systems. Period.
Regards,
Steve Holloway.
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– I have a different read on this news. I think the british government is aware of the desparate situation the UK economy is in.
– I wouldn’t be surprised to see the UK descend into a full blown “Southern Europe” style financial/economic crisis this year. UK interest rates already have risen from ~ 0.5% last year to ~ 1.5% today. And the weakening british pound weighs heavily/adds another burden on the UK consumer & corporations who produce for the domestic market.
– And the UK has been subsidized by – among others – Germany & the Eurozone. A fact that doesn’t go down too well with A LOT OF british citizens.
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A weakened pound makes their goods cheaper for the rest of the world. How is that so bad?
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– A weaker GBP (against the USD) means higher input costs (think: oil, commodities) for consumers in the UK: households AND corporate sector.
– Agree. A weaker GBP means that UK companies are more competitive (think: export). But not all companies in the UK produce for the export. Still A LOT OF companies only produce for the UK domestic market. Those companies wiil get hurt by weaker consumer/household demand (think; falling GBP). That’s what A LOT OF people overlook.
– One thing to watch is what happens to interest rates in the UK (See above). If they go ballistic then it’s “game over” no matter how much Mrs. May is kissing up to the US.
– One solution could be to raise wages by the same amount that the GBP weakens. But that’s something the corporate sector “doesn’t like”.
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Disparate or desperate ? Or is Desparate a neologism denoting both?
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– Ooops. it should be “Desperate”.
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You are delusional. The UK is, and always has been a net payer to, not beneficiary of, the EU.
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Who-pays-for-the-EU-and-how-much-does-it-cost-the-UK-Disentangling-fact-from-fiction-in-the-EU-Budget-Professor-Iain-Begg.pdf
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– Yes, but the UK is also running a Current Account Deficit and is therefore effectively subsidized by foreigners (e.g. the Eurozone).
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I haven’t seen Theresa May showing her finger, but she probably visited the WH to practice it. Trump is a good tutor.
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