In response to Trump’s “America First” policy, can anyone blame citizens in other countries for insisting upon the same?
Today Marine le Pen, promised a Crackdown on Immigration and Globalisation in a speech in Lyon, France.
France’s far-right party leader Marine Le Pen promised a crackdown on foreigners and the forces of globalisation if she won the presidency as she kicked off her campaign for a highly unpredictable election.
Launching her bid in front of a 3,000-strong crowd in Lyon on Sunday, she laid out a plan to pull the country out the euro, tax foreign workers, impose trade barriers and stop “uncontrolled immigration”.
Interrupted by chants of “France! France!” and “On est chez nous!” (“This is our country”), she told a raucous crowd that the country was threatened by the “two totalitarianisms” of economic globalisation and Islamic fundamentalism.
A report by UBS Wealth Management last week gave Ms Le Pen a 40 per cent chance of becoming president.Since Ms Le Pen succeeded her father as party head in 2011, the FN has softened its xenophobic rhetoric and developed a statist platform designed to attract blue-collar workers disappointed by the left.
This strategy has helped her party thrive in areas of France that have felt the brunt of deindustrialisation, tapping into growing disillusion among traditional leftwing voters who feel abandoned by the mainstream political class.
Le Pen Platform
- Special tax on job contracts for foreigners
- Slashing migration by 80 per cent to 10,000 people a year
- Make it much harder to become a French citizen
- Jobs should go to French workers first
- Reshape the EU into a loose confederation of nations.
- If talks failed to reshape EU in 6 months, hold a referendum on leaving the EU.
- Exit the euro, reestablish the French franc as the national currency.
Le Pen depicted the election as a choice between those who were pro-globalisation and those who were not. “There is no right wing and no left wing any more. There is only those who support globalisation and patriots,” said le Pen
Election Odds
Le Pen has been widely viewed as a candidate who would be crushed in the second round. That’s a position I scoffed at for a long time.
UBS Wealth Management now gives Le Pen a 40% chance. I find that a reasonable assessment, but le Pen’s chances may be much higher.
Points 1-4 above will ring a bell for a majority of French voters. And given Brexit, the idea of reshaping the EU can hardly be a shock.
In March of 2016, before Brexit, Newsweek reported “Research from Edinburgh University shows that 53 percent of French would like to hold their own vote on EU membership, and in Spain, Germany and Sweden more people are in favor of doing so than are opposed.”
Thus, it’s reasonable to believe that much, if not most, of France would agree with six of seven platform points I mentioned above.
In September of 2016, French Member of Parliament responsible for European affairs in President Francois Hollande’s party, Philip Cordery, stated “Almost all EU states could follow UK”
“I think what happened in the UK at the referendum could have happened [in] almost every other country in the European Union – except in the other countries no Prime Minister would have been as irresponsible as to ask for a referendum,” Cordery, who is half English, said, as quoted by The Independent.
“We’ve suffered from 10 years of tough austerity policies at the European level and people don’t see the EU as progress in terms of jobs, in terms of the economy, in terms of social progress.”
In The Netherlands: Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch right-wing, populist PVV party, currently topping opinion polls, openly expressed hopes a ‘Nexit’ could follow a ‘Brexit.’ In the Czech Republic, Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka said in February that “if Britain leaves the EU, we can expect debates about leaving the EU in a few years too.”
At the end of June, a survey showed that 40 percent of Austrians want their own referendum on EU membership. In March, a poll in France showed that 53 percent of the country’s citizens wanted to hold a vote. In May, a poll conducted in Germany indicated that 29 percent of Germans were in favor of leaving the bloc.
Le Pen Strategy vs. Trump Strategy
Trump won the US election because he struck a chord with people who blamed globalization for their woes and also because he was an outsider who cared little for the establishment.
Le Pen has nearly the identical strategy, minus Trump’s derogatory mud-slinging.
Once perceived front-runner, Francois Fillon, has stumbled badly, following allegations that he paid his wife 500,000 euros over 10 years with parliament money, for doing virtually nothing.
I spoke about the woes of Fillon on January 29, in Reassessing Le Pen’s Chances.
It’s a serious mistake rule out Le Pen. Incumbent politicians are also in trouble in Italy, the Netherlands, and Germany.
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Mike “Mish” Shedlock
One more terrorist attack like in Nice, France and Le Pen is a shoe-in.
I figured that at some point in my life that the leftist freaks in Frogland would grow up and snap out of their coma’s.
It took a while. But how’s that old saying go? A conservative is a liberal who got mugged the night before?
National Sovereignty (Protection) in, Globalism (Free Trade) out. Things are definitely going to get interesting. Got Popcorn?
Why hasn’t Macron founded his own party?
According to
http://hildegardvonhessenamrhein.over-blog.com/2017/02/j-explique-pourquoi-macron-n-a-pas-encore-fonde-son-parti.html
he would be limited to € 7500 contributions.
Meanwhile he has a blank cheque from billionaires and various owners of the French press. Soros and Bergé amongst them
https://lupus1.files.wordpress.com/2017/02/cxyn_rqwgaavlzy.jpg
From https://leblogalupus.com/2017/02/02/douce-france-pourquoi-macron-na-pas-encore-fonde-son-parti-francois-fillon-aurait-employe-francois-hollande-comme-president-de-la-republique-depuis-2012/
There is a Macrongate story also, some claim being surpressed, where he used € 120 000 of public money on restaurant meetings with his funders in one year. According to
http://hollande-demission.fr/HD/ya-til-un-macrongate-et-si-oui-par-qui-macron-est-il-protege/
he was also ‘recognized’ as having carried out tax fraud by the fiscal authorities.
French really know how to go for it.
If it’s not mistresses it’s money – suppose it’s the same everywhere in pen pushing politico land.
Strauss-Kahn, Lagarde, Fillon, Macron, Hollande with his hair cuts etc.
5 – that is where the EU will have to consider going to avoid more than Brexit.
Junker said he was the greatest threat to the EU, probably in case he didn’t manage to encourage all members to hold the line against the UK.
My take is he is the greatest threat because he failed to understand the need to be flexible.
Junker, Schulz and Tusk will go down as the men responsible for the break-up of the EU unless reform and change is possible. View Le France.
http://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/139/590x/juncker-schulz-tusk-736038.jpg
Should read “Vive La France”
There is no mention of economic and regulatory reform in any of the above. My understanding is that Macron is pro reform. But how well does that sit with remaining a member of the EU?
Graphic from very useful zerohedge article related to political risk to EU banks and TCW reducing exposure.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/01/15/political%20risks%20europe.jpg
More politics from Mish
Still no economic trends, global or otherwise
The political trend will set the economic trend.
If France goes to Le Penn (but I doubt it will), banks go Tits up with the EU and Euro with massive global trend implications.
Much bigger than Trump.
Not me, Fred.
I threw out my TV 4 years ago and although I am an avid sports fan I stopped watching all pro-sports in 1994 when the World Series was cancelled due to an MLB labor strike.
That was in it for me. No more pro baseball, basketball or football. And I’ve never looked back.
So I limit myself to college neanderthals fondling one another and tossing around a lopsided ball. And if the college players ever unionize and demand salaries – I will discard them and focus my sole attention on the local high school ball.
Similar. Pro-sport is hijacked, if not in one way, then another, or another.
Exactly. The ‘end’ of the EU is in front of us, opening to door for potentially catostrophic economic fallout.
“opening to door for potentially catastrophic economic fallout” which was going to happen anyway due to previous idiotic economic policies acting simply to kick the can down the road. Then, thanks to a left-leaning media worldwide and the general economic illiteracy of the vast majority of the world’s population who have, for instance, in the US bought into the “recovery” lie, the crash/downturn will be successfully blamed on Trump, Brexit, ant-EU movements and nationalist/populist movements in general. Watch for it.
Very true. And as leftists become more entrenched and intransient, their activities will trend to violence, making them look more & more like the islamists they insist upon defending.
leave
Censoring opposing views just makes you look like a jerk Mish
Oh for heavens sake, no one is being censored.
I replied to LDOldtimer on the previous post (60,000…). I mentioned politics, and overpaid NFL players. Several people replied to me. All the comments (mine and replies) have “mysteriously” disappeared
That is right.
Trouble is you were questioning the direction of Mish’s blog.
IMHO you should be allowed to, and to benefit from the replies which might have been enlightening. Mish might simply have suggested you start your own blog if you had better to say.
But then Mish might want to keep order and the attention on a topic not the reasons for writing the topic, might not want comments to become an argument over the blog domain. Etc.
You are very direct Fred, something I appreciate, but then even if we were to confront each other it would be as guests here. As host, Mish could also view and appreciate your comments as a guest would ( they are your comments not his after all) , as long as not ad hominem ( which I don’t think they were).
People are people, there is tension and frustration around, people get uptight….
If war is an extension of politics, politics is an extension of economics. Not sure why this is difficult to grasp.
Launching her (Le Pen) bid in front of a 3,000-strong crowd… Is that a big crowd in France?
actually that is a decent crowd from what I have seen. Macron got a lot more though
Ultimately, only the elections matter. Crowd side might not be indicative of outcome. Consider some factors:
The mainstream media labels you far-right, racist, or xenophobe. BTW, can we start calling these parties patriotic, and not use the mainstream media label?
You would have a high or total majority in the mature, i.e. older population that does not believe in freebies.
You would have a divide between rural and urban population.
Twitter is not your primary means of communication.
I would have one advice for lePen: soften the line on Euro. Too many do not remember the franc, and would not throw away any vote.
Red team bad, blue team good!
It’s all bullshit folks.
Check out what Obama was doing in 2015!
Globalism is collapsing, also the narrative is collapsing that anyone who is against it is a racist xenophobe. Almost everywhere I have expressed anti globalisation views, I’ve been asked if I am alt-right or what is wrong with me. People have been suspicious about me. Am I Putinist or what? This pranoia is fu..d up to begin with.
US has some similar problems but It will survive IMO(may be more protectionist, may be without Trump but It will make It). EU will not make It. I would give It 10 years the most but I think It will be much less. At least in US the voters can make some corrections. In EU they make corrections that are fatal to the union. I don’t see the leaders in EU having any touch with reality, they keep pushing their agenda with terrible economic consequences. The eurosceptics to them are not a reminder that they are doing something wrong but just some people with wrong ideas. The EU political order is not sustainable. All It takes is a Grillo or LePen and it is over. If not this time, It will happen some time. It would survive if they would federalise and have a central government of Europe with full blown fiscal authority but I don’t see that happening with eurosceptics gaining popularity all over the place. And there are national identities in Europe, people don’t want to give up their nation states. Why should they considering what the eorocrats have done so far?
Spot-on. The riiders on the gravy-train do not understand identity at all or what strength there can be in it. They have sold their identities, other don’t want to, so are trying to trick others into a one-way integration.
People of good wiill can maintain their nationality and still share and solve problems with others of an alternate identity. Its possible without all the Brussells bull-crap and stuffed shirts spounting platitudes.
What people don’t need is a lying, manipulative elite with an agenda they dare not speak of for fear of revolt.
They dont need an elite scared of giving the population the right to decide how they want to move forward, at what pace, and with whom in the driving seat.
The outcome of the UK referendum is not so much a problem for elite. The problem is that someone had to balls to ask the question. That scares them shitless because deep down they know the answer across the continent.
The answer, CHANGE.
People in Europe were joining an economic union. That’s all it was at the time referendums were held. Now the game has changed in the political arena. Europhiles now use morally loaded trickery: you don’t think of the benefit of Europe, you don’t look at the bigger picture and the wonderful future of Europe. I belive that dream even existed before the events of Greece and Cyprus for example.
It turns out It was never about economic benefits. Italy for example has practically not grown at all since It joined the euro. So why continue with euro, let’s go back to lira? “You don’t think about the future of Europe, It’s not just about Italy, things are not so simple”. 🙂 On and on It goes like this. At the same time there is this noise: socialists fucked everything up, right wingers fucked everything up etc. It is not the socialists or right wingers, you cannot do much on national level: “we have signed this European treaty or that treaty or there is this directive and that’s why It cannot be done.
No wonder there is frustration.
A lot of the erosceptics don’t have a clue either but at least they can break up this can’t do trap on a national level. On EU level it is not going to happen, integration cannot continue because of the political climate the europhiles have created, they cannot deliver. And if you look at their priorities then that breeds nationalism. They are indiffferent about mass unemployment and destuction of peoples lives, yet scream and yell about the refugees.
If you ask yourself a question, how can this possibly end then there is not many logical answers besides breaking up. It might be true that eurosceptics are incompetent but so are the europhiles.
“Nationalism” isn’t a bad thing. All is means is that, when ‘visitors’ come to your house, the ‘owner’ (you) remain in charge of what happens under your own roof. Perhaps, in time, there will be a ‘marriage’ and the visitors will become a true part of your family. Or perhaps not. But until that time, the host decides “what goes” and “what does not”.
It’s easy to label Trump a dictator and draw a little moustache on his upper lip. Drawing a little moustache on LePen’s upper lip won’t be taken seriously.
And when anyone who disagrees with you is “hitler”, you now have the moral ‘high-ground’ and have permission to do anything you want to them. Because , after all, they’re “fascists”, right?…….
This has nothing to do with moral high ground. It’s using words to create a visual image. Can you imagine how silly LePen would look with ANY style moustache?
EU socialism bad. French socialism good. Ever since the French Revolution the French have been trying to recreate the good old days with little success. Le Pen wants to create a new national pride, but I think most French people like the perks of the socialist state. French labors laws and French bureaucracy keeps the country stuck and unable to innovate.
People continually on welfare should NEVER be given a citizenship and the citizenship system of Denmark where Denmark demands working for 4.5 years from the previous 5 years before one can apply for Denmark’s citizenship should be copied in EVERY european country.
Actually the wait time should be made 10 years europe-wide and 9.5 these should be spent working in a job.
No sharia believers and no criminals and no haters of gays and no disrespectors of women and no spreaders of extremist islamic views and no forcers of face covering viels should EVER be given european citizenships.
.
Currently most of the immigrants that have come into european welfare paying countries through the asylum seeker system that gives residence permits based on just a story with NO PROOF needed are on welfare and most of their family members that have been quickly imported straight to welfare through incompetent EU-directive on family re-unifications are also on welfare.
.
Welfare paying europe lures people to ABUSE lax, loose and incompetent asylum system and rewards successful asylum seekers with free apartments and free welfare money for life and then wonders why they mostly do not work.
The 2nd generation gets an example of not working and leftist social workers tell them that it must be racism that their parents did not find a job despite not having any useful skills to earn more working than the generous welfare pays and to the 2nd generation asylum seekers kids the leftist welfare workers tell that it must be racism that you have not found work despite not finishing school and having a hostile attitude towards locals and bad attitude towards women.
To top the insanity cake western european countries have let countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar and Bahrain fund mosques in the west that are preaching supremacism of islam and muslims over local people.
.
The current lunatic policies as exemplified by Germany and Sweden as the most insane countries have to be stopped.
Muslims in Europe must be WESTERNIZED and first step is stopping family re-unifications for the 2nd and 3rd generation that are currently getting obedient wives and commanding husbands from the home country through arranged marriages that bring their backwards attitudes with them and have mostly no chance on the western jobs market because of not knowing the local language and having a huge skillsgap and educationgap compared to locals.
Muslims in the west should ONLY marry other westernized muslims or non-muslim europeans and the giving of european citizenships to sharia believers and islamic extremists has to be stopped.
The MAGGOTS infesting the political systems of ALL these “western democracies” are TRAITORS to their own countrymen, and have sold their birthrights to the highest bidders. The wheel turns slowly, but it will grind exceedingly fine.