I am pleased (mostly) to report the “impossible” has happened. Support for SPD has risen 10 percentage points in two weeks.
Hermann Binkert, head of the Insa polling agency, stated “I would have said it was impossible to improve your ratings by 10 percentage points in 14 days. But that’s what’s happened.”
The Financial Times reports “Phenomenal” Result Raises Prospect of Election Defeat for Chancellor.
The rise in support [for SPD], two weeks after Martin Schulz was picked as the SPD’s leader, increases the uncertainty in the run-up to the September Bundestag election and raises the possibility that Ms Merkel — once seemingly invulnerable — might even be defeated in her bid for a fourth term in office.
“This is phenomenal,” said Hermann Binkert, head of the Insa agency, which published its results on Monday. “I would have said it was impossible to improve your ratings by 10 percentage points in 14 days. But that’s what’s happened.”
According to Insa, support for the SPD has risen from 21 per cent two weeks ago, just before the former European Parliament president took over as party leader, to 31 per cent. The party has grabbed support from Ms Merkel’s Christian Democrat/Christian Socialist bloc, which is down from 32.5 per cent to 30 per cent, and from smaller parties, including the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Mr Binkert suggested Mr Schulz’s rise was no flash in the pan and that voters had been showing their frustrations with Ms Merkel for two years. “It needed somebody to bring together those frustrations. Schulz has benefited,” he said. “He has made an emotional connection with the voters.”
More Impossibilities Coming Up?
The Financial Times added its own bit of silliness to the “impossibility” meme.
“Even coming first in September’s elections would not guarantee Mr Schulz power because the SPD would almost certainly lack an overall majority and have to seek coalition partners,” said Financial Times writer Stefan Wagstyl.
At least he did not say “impossible”. He left himself an out by merely stating “almost certainly”.
I beg to differ.
- Are we supposed to presume it’s a “near certainty” Schulz will not rise further?
- Is it a “near certainty” that Merkel can form a coalition even if CDU/CSU wins the most votes?
Merkel a Shoo-In?
I discussed the above questions on February 3 in Merkel an Election Shoo-In? Nope, Think Again.
At that time CU/CSU had a 6 point lead. Now they have a 1 point deficit! Yet, people proclaim a “near certainty” that Merkel will again govern.
- SPD could win outright.
- SPD might insist Merkel step down as the price to pay for another grand coalition.
- SPD might be first to form a governing coalition.
- Merkel might be allowed one more year before agreeing to step aside in another Grand Coalition
It’s preposterous in light of Brexit in the UK, Trump winning in the US, the rise of Marine le Pen in France, and the Rise of Schulz in Germany to speak of “near certainties” for Merkel.
Postcard From Germany
I appreciate well thought out comments from readers. Reader 5-8-6 from Germany replied to Merkel an Election Shoo-In? Nope, Think Again with these comments:
Dear Mish,I think it is positive that Martin Schulz is energizing the German elections, giving Merkel a run for her money. Still, he is an alternative only in name since he is advocating the same policies as Merkel: unswerving loyalty to the euro, “rescues” for Greece at al, out-of-control immigration, expanding the EU machine, extending social benefits to all and sundry, conflict with Russia, silly energy strategy, increasing taxes, you name it.I believe the CDU will still emerge as the strongest party with Merkel forming a coalition government. Even if Schulz were to win – what difference would it make? Zilch. Frankly, we need Italy or France to pull the plug. Germany won’t do it. We cannot rid ourselves of this weird mix of idealism and stupidity.Cheers,Alexander
- France First: Marine Le Pen Speech Interrupted by Cheers “France! France!”
- Wikileaks Claims Information on French Presidential Candidate Emmanuel Macron: Support for Fillon Plunges
- Italy Increasingly Likely to Abandon the Euro
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Doesn’t matter who wins. Germany has been permanently transformed and ruined. Their only recourse is build more prisons and greatly increase their police presence. France is not far behind. Islam is the enemy of the Christian West. Where Islam flourishes, Christianity dies. The only exception is in strong societies with law and order. Then it is only a truce. This is culture clash that few will admit. When the soviet state fell, look at the genocide in Bosnia. Christians vs. Muslims. Liberals in the west are destroying their own culture and too blind to see what is happening.
Funny you should mention genocide in Bosnia as the majority of the killings and genocides were committed by the Christian Serbs against the Muslims. Despite the expanding Muslim population it has yet to be reasonably demonstrated that they would overrun the native populations in Europe. Even in a hundred years and while taking into account a shrinking native population and an expanding Muslim population Muslims will still remain a minority then.
And all the while those who actually control government laugh at fools like you.
The problem is government. It creates winners and it creates losers – but the losers are too stupid to understand.
After the ridiculous fraudulence indulged in by the mainstream media in the U.S. presidential election regarding the composition of groups of poll respondents, one has to be skeptical that there really was any such dramatic shift of sentiment among German citizens.
Shortly after the last debate, the mainstream media produced a spate of ludicrous polls which suddenly said that Hillary Clinton was ahead by 12 points by polling groups of americans consisting of registered democrats by margins laughably out of proportion with the general populace.
Did the same thing happen with this poll in Germany?
Much ado over nothing.
The difference between Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi.
The outcome remains the same.
Germans aren’t stupid people. Don’t they realize the SPD will eventually destroy their wonderful culture?
Stuki Moi said:
Germany was the inventor or large scale public indoctrination. The population, while hardly “stupid” in most respects, have been told for long enough to believe it, that there are somehow fundamental differences between two soccer teams playing the same game. Just like Americans wrt football teams.
The muzzies, for all their ills, never really got onboard the publicly funded indoctrination craze with much conviction. Hence left education where it belongs: In homes and churches. Allowing them to see quite clearly that if the game itself is busted, simply switching which side one cheers on, isn’t really going to make much difference. Something that, for better or for worse, blowing up the stadium at least will.
How long before they have to remove “Christian” from the party names to become PC and attract votes from new entrants?
“The party……..Christian Democrat/Christian Socialist bloc”
It makes no difference since both SPD and CDU are dedicated to the death of the German state. The only party that can save Germany is AFD. The exact same thing happens in France with the PS and the “Republicains” which are two faces of the same coin while Marine Le Pen FN’s is the only party that can save the country.
Schulz & Merkel will both harden against the UK.
Schulz will be particularly defensive of Brussels and might have his eye on the Presidency after Germany.
The test for the EU will be who is best able to convince Germany to relax attitudes towards transfers to other members and get Germany spending back at home. Germany will be encouraged to become the reflation machine of last resort – this will be Schulz more than Merkel.
A constant Schulz mantra of “solidarity” AKA – relax attitudes to deficits, transfer payments and create more demand back in Germany. He could win in that platform as Germany is currently rocking.
This was a release yesterday:
“German factory orders, released this morning, have smashed forecasts by growing by a whopping 5.2% in December. That’s the best result since July 2014, and crushing the 0.5% expected by economists.”
What if I tell you, that the left wing and the right wing belong to the very same bird (that’s why the eagle is so popular as state coat of arms; yes, also in Germoney).
It’s simply how they play the Hegelian Dialectics Game, the sheeple falls for it, as do the intellectual idiots. Thesis – Antithesis –> Synthesis (or: problem/reaction/solution as the time tested method used in all the synthetic terror events to advance an agenda). Here’s how artists represent it:
IRS Headquarter, Maryland
Just follow the index finger, allow them to manage your perception. Rinse and repeat.
Schultz will be worse and is a slave to the EU integration fans.
At first I thought that by voting in someone worse that Angela would be a positive to ensure the EU swift demise.
That does not take into account the fact that Germans in general tend to follow their leaders a little more obediently than other EU nations.
Beside, I can not bear to see his ugly mug in the news for the coming years.
Freedom of thought and pragmatism are assets.
There is a big thing made of discipline and that is indeed an asset to a society too, but not without freedom of thought and pragmatism.
Merkel has probably doomed Germany so certainly should be thrown out. Unfortunately Schulz is pretty vile too. The Germans need to come up with a third option PDQ. Though it may already be too late. It’s probably too late for Sweden too. Belgium the same?
Maybe France and Britain can avoid a like fate, but I’d say the odds are not encouraging.
Mission Accomplished said:
Wierd mix of idealism and stupidity. ?
Lot of that going around these days.
History makes clear that DEBT eventually makes a slave of the debtor.
“Nothing is new under the sun”
Roger Moat said:
As the Titanic starts to list, the passengers begin to reconsider that “unsinkable” sales pitch
“might even be defeated in her bid for a fourth term in office.”
Term limits = the solution to political problems the world over.
A team X voter won’t vote for a team Y candidate.
The incumbent owns the nomination.
Team Z is a throwaway vote.
Places tilted toward either X or Y have only one option, thus no options at all.
Most places are tilted.
If not for the Twenty-Second Amendment, American democracy would be utterly irreparably dead.
a thought occurred to me that all the past leaders that have set things up , are getting out of dodge…..in time for what? we will soon see.not time to celebrate just yet.
First…..If the English Bookies got it Wrong Twice..Brexit and Trump,why would Merkel’s untimely ‘Political-demise’ come as any great Shock…? The EU is now basically in a Social Free-for-all…sitting Atop a bowl of Financial Spaghetti…the Dessert will be tasty…lolol thanks for reading