The latest first quarter GDP estimate by the New York Fed Nowcast jumped to a new high of 3.1%.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast is well off its previous high of 3.4% and down to 2.7%.

Let’s take a look.


Nowcast Report Updated: February 10, 2017

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 3.1% for 2017:Q1.
  • Positive news from imports and exports moved the nowcast up by 0.2 percentage point over the past week.

GDPNow forecast: 2.7 percent — February 7, 2017

I discussed the latest GDPNow forecast on February 7, in GDPNow Forecast Sinks to 2.7% from 3.4%: What Happened?


In a follow-up post, Pat Higgins, GDPNow Creator Responded to a Question on Employment.

The highly-touted 227,000 jobs gain was not so terrific after all. The employment report took 0.4 percentage points off the previous estimate of 3.4%. Auto sales took off another 0.3 percentage points.

Nonetheless, here we sit with a pair of forecasts of 2.7% and 3.1%.

If accurate, the Fed will be itching to hike. As for now, I remain with my usual stance that generally serves me well: “I’ll take the under”.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock