In a phone call to Chinese President Xi Jinping, President Donald Trump backed down on prior threats that everything was on the table. In his latest reversal, Trump backs ‘One China’ policy.
President Donald Trump has told Chinese President Xi Jinping that he will respect the “One China” policy, in a move that will ease tensions between the powers.
In his first conversation with Xi since entering the Oval Office, Trump said the White House would honor the “One China” policy under which the US recognizes Beijing — and not Taipei — as the seat of the Chinese government.
The call with Xi — on Thursday evening Washington time — came as Trump was preparing to welcome Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, to the White House on Friday. The decision to speak to Xi on the eve of the Trump-Abe summit was designed to reduce the fallout from the lavish welcome planned for the Japanese leader. Abe will dine with Trump four times, fly on Air Force One to the president’s resort in Florida, and play a round of golf with his US counterpart.
“The significance of this phone call before the visit of Prime Minister Abe cannot be overstated,” said Dennis Wilder, a former top China analyst at the CIA now at Georgetown University. “The Chinese had sought reassurance that President Trump did not intend to overturn a fundamental principle underpinning US-China relations and north-east Asian geostrategic stability for the past four decades — the One China policy.”
Wilder added that by reasserting the commitment to the policy, “President Trump opens the ground for a constructive dialogue with Beijing on the difficult but resolvable issues of rebalancing the trading relationship that has tilted in Beijing’s favor”.
What Happened?
It is difficult to say, but I offer one possibility: Xi threatened to cancel Boeing orders.
Previously, China told Trump there is “Nothing to Discuss” If the U.S. Drops “One China” Policy.
At that time, I commented, “This very well could be a negotiating tactic, but it’s also unclear how much China is willing to bend, if at all.”
China did not bend, Trump did.
After blasting China as a currency manipulator and threatening to end “One China” policy, Trump reversed course on at least one policy issue. A threat from Xi in regards to Boeing may have been all that it took.
I discussed potential Boeing consequences yesterday in “America First” in Practice: Boeing, a Major Casualty of Trade War With China.
This was my concluding statement: Trump and his protectionist team need to take a look at realities. So do all the misguided armchair “fair trade” activists.
And here’s the two-point reality: 1. No one wins trade wars. 2. The US had far more to lose than China.
For whatever reason, Trump backed off. His bluster failed.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
2 weeks into office and reality slowly settles in ? Not really as the latest EO aims to militarized even more local police forces ===> police state here I come :((
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Hah… The police forces are already militarized, mostly done so under EVERY prez since 9/11 except, of course, in the biased minds of Trump haters.
I suspect Trump has the tool of the Federal 1033 program (DOD surplus to local cops) to use as a carrot/stick against sanctuary cities who refuse to notify ICE when they arrest an illegal for illegal behavior (other than for being in the country illegally in the first place). BTW, it is only THAT which is what this sanctuary city controversy is all about – those cities refuse to do that ONE small thing, notify ICE of an arrest, which is all that is being asked. Instead, the left is presenting this issue as if the feds want local police to hunt down and arrest illegals. Typical.
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The issue is that sanctuary cities RELEASE seriously criminal illegal immigrants who have mugged people and who were drunk-driving and who belong to a gang like MS-13 and who have previous convictions of sexual molestation and rape instead of HOLDING them until ICE picks them up and deports them.
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There is no need to start asking everyone whether they are a legal immigrant because MANDATORY e-verify with serious penalties for non-compliance by companies and other employers will remove illegal immigrants ability to work and removal of SNAP EBT foodstamps, section 8 housing assistance, earned income tax credits and state welfare programs from illegal immigrants will remove illegal immigrants ability to live on welfare.
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95% of illegals will go home voluntarily once the magnets are turned OFF.
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ALL medical costs including childbirth and ER visits that are caused by illegals should be billed from Mexico’s embassy and other embassies.
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it’s called diplomacy–
something we haven’t had much of.
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So Trump has crawfished on China too… fancy that.
Btw… Trump dined with a top GOP Israeli lobbyist in advance of Netanyahu’s visit next week. I wonder if Trump will also crawfish on moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
http://www.haaretz.com/us-news/1.770887
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Trump is a smart guy who changes his mind when his understanding of the facts changes. As Keynes once asked, “What do you do sir?”
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Trump is like every other politician… he is a liar !!
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He’s my President and he’s not a politition. I’d be careful about calling him a liar too.
Try to be a little more respectful. Like it or not.
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Or what ?
This is not Communist China… yet !
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He’ll get my respect only after he has earned it.
So far, he hasn’t earned squat… and is in negative territory.
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Spend a little more time trying to get it right the first time.
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“Trump is a smart guy who changes his mind when his understanding of the facts changes.”
He could also be applying the “makeup sex is better that routine sex” move, too.
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I agree. He is getting in front of the people who actually know how the world works and they are providing him with the appropriate information. It’s going to tough for him to spin all of his reversals of campaign rhetoric to his supporters. But if anyone can do it, he can.
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Averting a trade war? Maybe. It also might have been perceived as another “Don’t cross the Yalu.” ultimatum by China. UN troops crossed the Yalu anyway, and China attacked UN troops. The PLA drove UN troops back to the original starting line, dug in, and no one could move them despite 3 long years of fighting. In Nam the allies abstained from invading the North to end the war quickly, lest they provoke another Chinese attack. It turned into a long guerilla war because of this.
As long as China thinks there is the possibility of obtaining Taiwan peacefully some day (all it takes is one vote), they are content to follow Sun Tzu’s advice: “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” They have repeatedly stated that they will never accept a permanently separate Taiwan. Its non negotiable, and they will go to war if necessary. China was bold enough to invade the Soviet Union over border issues, so they don’t make idle threats when it comes to their borders.
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Trump thinks the Yalu runs through New Haven.
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..Yalu is for the gays…
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“Averting a trade war? Maybe. It also might have been perceived as another “Don’t cross the Yalu.” ultimatum by China. UN troops crossed the Yalu anyway, and China attacked UN troops.”
It was UN troops crossing the 38th parallel into North Korea, that China objected to. To cross the Yalu, would have been to cross into China.
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China and Taiwan are separate countries with different political systems.
The communist government of China wants to pretend that they are one country.
There is NO harm in pleasing chinese who want to pretend that earth is flat…
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Right move from Trump when it comes to China.
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As a consequence of the courts attacking Trump’s seven nation TEMPORARY ban Trump should end ALL refugee admissions.
There is NO reason to take 100k+ per year like Obama took and there is NO reason to take 50k that Trump is going to take.
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USA should fund refugee camps in neighboring countries even more than they already do and stop taking refugees from them so that people would return home once situation gets more peaceful instead of the current situation where they stay years and years in the camps playing “refugee lottery” aka hoping to get picked by some western country so they could get to that country and live on welfare with a dream like existence for them with free welfare money and free apartment.
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Trump has crawfished again… fancy that.
Btw…. Trump has dined with a top GOP Israeli lobbyist before Netanyahu’s visit next week. I wonder if Trump will likewise crawfish on moving the US embassy to Jerusalem.
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I think you are exaggerating here.
Do you even understand what the One China Policy is ?
It is not a US policy, there is no bind to be undone or recognized, Trump merely stated the obvious, and recognition of the policy is only a state of affairs that ensures the diplomatic framework that existed will continue. The difference a rejection of the recognition of the policy would be that of the possibility of recognizing Taiwan as independent should Taiwan also renounce the policy and decide to claim that route. So Trump merely tested what the will of the region was by airing existing US flexibility.
“The position of the United States, as clarified in the China/Taiwan: Evolution of the “One China” Policy report of the Congressional Research Service (date: July 9, 2007) is summed up in five points:
The United States did not explicitly state the sovereign status of Taiwan in the three US-PRC Joint Communiques of 1972, 1979, and 1982.
The United States “acknowledged” the “One China” position of both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
US policy has not recognized the PRC’s sovereignty over Taiwan;
US policy has not recognized Taiwan as a sovereign country; and
US policy has considered Taiwan’s status as undetermined. U.S. policy has considered Taiwan’s status as unsettled.
These positions remained unchanged in a 2013 report of the Congressional Research Service.” Wiki.
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Mish, maybe it is time to start looking at and evaluating this ‘new’ world differently.
We have been, in my mind, at a tipping point for some time. I think this election has brought it to a head.
Things, at every level of government and business, will need to adapt. What we have been doing has, lead us to the edge of socialism. Once socialism is in place it will not be changed.
Look at all the countries in Europe. They are lost. The pie got smaller and there were more and more people coming to the table.
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Mish,
I suspect that there’s far more complexity in the exchange by telephone with Xi than we can dissect. Trump is not a fool, and is a tough negotiator. he is a very smart guy. One telephone call does not arise to a complex understanding of international relations between two powers.
The call could have been a threat, a fake, a conciliatory expression; but whatever, it is in a context of complexity which is pretty much beyond any particularly rational abstraction of a single aspect of the relationships between us.
Remember that Trump is the only politician who publicly took on the question of Chinese currency manipulation; an issue which dwarfs everything else. In a trade war with China, it loses 4 for every 1 we lose, because that’s how distorted the China trade has become.
In aggregate direct trade deficit, the Chinese have a surplus with the US exceeding $4.3 Trillion. Talk of jobs lost! Add to that the multipliers which we usually assess to manufacturing and the Chinese have taken something on the order of $10 Trillion out of our society.
Trump’s “public” conversations with any of these leaders are unlikely to be particularly informative of the state of the contests.
John Goodrich
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My man Donald!! Absolutely Brilliant ! And that sirs is how it’s done. How many hours in a plane? You may not like the man, his approach, his style Business leaders love and understand him, Obahm could have done the same thing but was to much of an elitist and scared of his own shadow. Trump is a shark out patrolling the waters. And he’s a dam good golfer who knows to use the coarse to make a deal. The Chinese love golf as do the Japenese and that’s where both do their business and political agendas. Like it or not it’s real life business and a game of gentlemen
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So let me get this straight, the ‘great deal’ Trump accomplished was avoiding the cancelling of Chinese orders to Boeing.
But since those orders had already been placed if Trump had not made any anti-China statements, we are in exactly the same place we would be if Trump didn’t waste everyone’s time with hot air about a trade war with China.
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I think the hot air was made up by the press and typical know it all alarmist who got their ars pinched November 8, 2016. Might not b your style or pleasure but the man is pounding the phone lines and getting things done. Personally I could care less how he gets it done who he offends. Drain that swamp, build that wall. Scorched earth earth. I voted and waited two terms to get things moving. Mr Nice left the building .
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What is this crap? What got done? Are you for real?
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First, Trump betrayed people who did support him for promising to ‘get tough’ on China. He did the same thing to the birthers, first he was just about the only politician on their side,esp. after the certificate was released. Then he sold them down the river acting as if they were nuts that he ‘got to the bottom of’. I don’t agree with either set of people but if he betrays them why think he would not betray anyone or anything else?
Second, if Trump ever does decide to go after China, the water is now poisoned. China would no doubt suspect he would back down if they threaten Boeing again. Boeing has to bite their nails wondering if this Orange King is going to screw up their business. By breeding contempt for the US, Trump increases the chance of instability.
Third we see yet again Trump fatigue. Most of the time we should not have to worry about political news. It’s one thing if there’s an actual crises like the housing crash or 9/11 but it’s a major problem if we have to pay attention to this fool every week as yet another unforced crises erupts.
Fourth here we go again with crony capitalism rather than free markets. The White House is trying to personally manage business..rewarding companies that support Trump with free advertising, putting other companies in periodic panic, even department stores have to worry about what brands they will carry. Truman got himself in hot water because he once accidentally sent an angry letter to a critic who based his daughter’s singing. In the 50’s through 70’s there was a lot of ‘managed’ in our economy and often the President would try to settle a big strike or browbeat a company for raising prices of some essential product. But at least those things were done in the spirit of trying to do what’s right for the country.
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I think Trump is realizing he has enough on his plate right now. He smiled at china laying nice all the while thinking, I will get to you later when I have more time.
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Wow, I guess you think the Emperor really does have new clothes.
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It happens every 8 years. Another tax feeder dragged into the limelight. Another Hope. But never any Change.
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The most unpredictable, yet still dormant threat in East Asia, is North Korea and it’s nuclear arsenal. There is no easy solution to that, but PRC needs to be on side to make it manageable. That, despite some controversy, is in the best interest of Japan, too.
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If North Korea had anything resembling a functional nuclear arsenal, Japan would have built enough warheads pointed straight at Kimistan, to turn the entire backwards commie colony into a crater deep enough to expose the earth’s mantel, a long time ago.
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So when the facts and circumstances change Trump does what the Trump haters wanted him to do and now they attack him for changing his mind!!!
LOL!
Just goes to show – you can’t please malcontents!!!
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Wasting an enormous amount of time and resources to go from where you started to nowhere different is kind of ……… .
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wasteful.
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Mish, 1 China wasn’t even on the table before Trump. He put it up there and now took it back. Don’t know if he got anything but he didn’t cave.
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Notice all the h8ers saying Trump lost and guessing what he was threatened with. Since you’re all ignorant, entertain this possibility: maybe Xi gave something.
That template fits just as well as all the other speculation being bandied about here.
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Meet the new boss… same as the old boss. They are all liars who embrace the same evil globalist cabal. But the people continue to be fooled into thinking… this time, this leader will be different.
As I posted here months ago… I voted for Trump because it was the next best thing to voting for Putin. But I knew it was an exercise in futility. This fool stopped believing in fairy tales when “nationalist” Prince Charming Putin bowed and worshiped the same evil globalist dragon.
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The main issue is not the one-China policy. That’s settled and there is no reason to change it. The main issue, which we need to push China back on, is the man-made islands. We will have support in the region for challenging them on this. Tillerson said we would deny them access to the islands, but it remains to be seen in what context and under what circumstances he was saying that. I am assuming he means in a serious military confrontation.
If it comes to that, those islands are sitting ducks and not defensible by the Chinese, even with their new medium range missiles. China is making enemies all around the SCS; Japan, S Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, etc. While China is able to bully them independently, if the US consolidates these countries into a workable opposition the Chinese will not be able to deny anyone access the the SCS. They have virtually no navy, and though they do have a good sized submarine force, the US will be able to counter it with our own attack subs and other methods. We have overwhelming superiority in airpower in the region through our bases in Japan, S. Korea and Guam. Plus, of course, our 10 supercarriers, each of which can maintain 70 aircraft. Plus dozens of cruisers and destroyers.
Granted, it would be a difficult fight due to logistics. The fact is the Chinese have the will to defend their islands at all cost and would more than likely attack Taiwan in the process. It remains to be seen how important the SCS issue is to the US. But at some point, China is going to have to have their nose bloodied or we can just hand over control of the western Pacific to them.
I am a former USAF officer and combat pilot and spent time in the region. I am not privy to our operational plans for the SCS.
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China won’t attack Taiwan; the US won’t recognize Taiwan, the US won’t move the embassy to Jerusalem nor recognize the settlements – these positions are backed by long standing international agreements.
Will Trump stop arming terrorists in Syria? Will Trump recognize Crimea as part of Russia? This is where things could go horribly wrong if things don’t change.
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Who is Trump meeting with? That’s rights Abe and not Xi. Who is Abe aligned with? Taiwan president Tsai. Trump made the phone call to Xi to take his mind off the Abe meeting. Trump should give Abe an aircraft carrier. This would drive Xi nuts.
China will steal Boeing’s technology and then kick Boeing out. This is China’s way of doing business. Just ask Japan where China got its bullet train technology from. Now China is exporting bullet trains to the third world.
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President TRUMP has a lot on his plate, to say the least, plus he has to fight the democrats to maintain our Constitution and therefore our country, every step of the way. Right NOW, I think it’s first things first, like the safety of the United States within it’s own borders (since we haven’t had a border for decades), as an example of one issue. The China trade structure is still on the table, just wait a see.
America is not a democracy, it’s a Constitutional Republic. Once you fully understand what that means, everything falls into place and TRUMP understands this.
The word “democracy” is not found in any of the founding documents: not in The Declaration of Independence, not in The Bill of Rights, not in The Constitution. TRUMP also understands this and the U.S.A. is going to look different after his 1st year in office! With the horrendous damage that has been done to this country over the last 30 years by the NWO democrats AND (so called) Republicans it’s going to take some time and pain to make the necessary “changes”; but he will.
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How exactly do you know China did not bend? And what they did not bend on? Is there another transcript leak?
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Trump waffling yet again. All bluster no bite.
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