Before the EU is willing to enter trade talks with the UK, it wants an upfront divorce settlement of €60 billion in exit bill claims along with guaranteed rights for expatriate citizens.
Expatriate rights are easy. Both sides can pass legislation quickly, at no cost.
As for the exit bill, the UK should tell the EU to go to hell. The UK would have no bargaining power if it agreed to give the EU all or most of €60 billion in exit bill claims before trade settlement negotiation.
With those new pre-divorce demands, Brexit Tade Talks Delayed Until Next Year.
The EU’s Brexit negotiators expect to spend until Christmas solely discussing Britain’s divorce from the bloc, denying London any trade talks until progress is made on a €60bn exit bill and the rights of expatriate citizens.
A narrow divorce-first approach favored by Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, would represent a big setback for Britain’s aim for a fast-track EU trade deal, completed by the end of 2018.
A move to delay trade talks sets the stage for a high-stakes stand-off once formal Brexit negotiations begin. David Davis, the UK’s Brexit secretary, wants all elements of Brexit to be handled “in parallel”, saying he has told Mr. Barnier that his “sequential” plan for talks “does not seem practical”.
At one extreme some of the EU-27 — including some French officials — want Britain to honor its financial commitments as a first step. Others are concerned a hardline money-first approach will fail unless the “sweetener” of trade discussions is offered to keep the UK engaged. Spain, for instance, opposes “strict procedural requirements” and has backed early discussions about the future relationship.
Just Leave
For the third time, I suggest the UK “Just Leave”. There is nothing to negotiate with a collective set of fools whose clear intent is to punish the UK.
The EU believes it has the upper hand. They don’t. I discussed this on November 29, 2016 in Brexit Stacked Deck? Which Way? Don’t Negotiate, Just Leave!
Bluff from Schauble
Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble boasts Britain can’t lower corporation tax because the UK still has EU commitments.
Obviously, that claim flies out the window the moment the UK says “goodbye”. It is to the EU’s advantage, not the UK’s for the UK to enter negotiations.
The EU will try to drag the negotiations on forever. Heck, they won’t even have to try. Permanent negotiation is a natural process getting 28 nations to agree to anything, and under silly EU rules all 28 nations have to agree.
All the UK has to do is proclaim the treaty null and void. By doing so, all these accumulated fees the EU is threatening the UK with immediately go up in smoke. So do current UK contributions.
That is the ultimate trump card, and I mentioned that prospect on day one.
Brexit is a Religious Battle
On December 2, I wrote Brexit is a Religious Battle (And You Can’t Negotiate Religion)
You Can’t Negotiate Religion
Both sides appear firmly entrenched. And the entrenchment grows by the day. Jeroen ijsselbloem, who chairs the eurogroup of 19 eurozone finance ministers, insists UK Must Abide by EU Rules Post Brexit to Secure ‘Passporting’ Rights.
Given that hardening stance, the UK may as well sit down with the Pope in an effort to negotiate the “Holy Ghost” out of the “Trinity”.
Risk to UK
The risk to the UK is negotiations drag on and on with costs piling up. As long as the UK remains in the EU, the UK arguably has bills to pay.
Just Leave
There is one and only one solution to this madness: Just leave.
Only One Way to End Discussion Madness
27 nations will never agree to anything except complete capitulation by the UK.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
1) They are in collusion with the House of Lords where there is a vote this week and various “members” are receiving money from the EU. Fact – some of the key players working against the vote – https://www.changebritain.org/lords
Kinnock family are on payroll – look it up.
2) They are upping the ante just as Blair (that was in collusion with Junker recently) gave his speech last week.
3) There wont be any trade talks – plan for none has been ongoing. Damage will be substantial to all sides and 400K jobs in Ireland as an example.
UK has its own 5th column at work supported by EU – even the BBC gets money from the EU, so does RUSI +++.
Many of the problems leading to Brexit were down to Blair and his PM’ship.
The House of Lords should be abolished. Every dual nationality member of House of Parliament and Lords should be removed from seat.
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Go to court, arbitration, immediately.
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Nahhhh. Do what others have done. Go to Las Vegas and get a quicky divorce and go back to your state of residence after for the property settlement.
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What evidence do you have that 400,000 Irish Jobs will be affected / lot by Brexit?
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There was a 400K figure bandied around in the press. That is the total dependent. Some will be spit with the UK but the Northern Irish side is hoped can cope as it will still be in the UK. Obviously not all will be lost but it gives at idea of the size of the dependency.
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/the-harder-the-brexit-the-worse-it-is-for-ireland-1.2829838
This was before Aricle 50 and as a consequence of currency weakness after the vote:
http://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-jobs-at-risk-2905003-Aug2016/
Expect Sterling to get hit on Article 50 issuance. Probably recovering strongly but getting a hammering to start.
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If I can find the assesment report again I’ll post the link.
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Part of this is to try and frighten the Dutch and French too.
Macron – he has put his foot in it in Algeria accusing the French of Crimes Against Humanity.
It has gone down badly in France. “Shot France in the back.” He’s the future President !!
Left looking to co-operate against LePen as her approval will benefit from Macron gaff. He is trying to limit damage but some quarters are very annoyed – future President saying that of the country he wants to run.
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The case for Brexit, Frexit, Nedxit, Italeave, etc. has only gotten stronger since the UK referendum. Europe is disintegrating.
All of the NWO fifth-column propaganda on the planet isn’t going to reverse the populist/nationalist zeitgeist. Even if the FR & NL elections hold the line, the mortal damage to the EU has already been done. The elitists/globalists will NOT share government with nationalists/populsits – they have been very clear on this point. So it’s a fight to the death, and I’ll bet on the nationalist/populist side of that fight every day. Humans are tribal, not supra-national. Blood vs. abstraction… yeah, I’m betting on blood.
The EU is a dead man walking. The UK were smart to get out “early”, and the the UK electorate now knows this for a fact.
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EU is trying to be a vicious bully.
The more EU bullies UK the sooner the whole EU collapses.
.
Nobody wants to member of a club where one is FORCED to be a member otherwise one will be bullied.
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They are trying to sway the House of Lords vote this week.
If the will of the people if over-turned I would not be surprised for there to be an uprising of some sort or worse.
Trying to satisfy 27 separate nations is a waste of time. It will be traumatising and tumultuous but may be best to just walk. The ramifications will be global in that case as trade volumes will drop off a cliff.
Germany is in surplus. They will feel a shock also and if they do need to increase defence spending that surplus is gone is a flash and then the EU gets 2 whammies of no UK contribution and German surplus gone.
Ireland and others will need to contribute or receive less.
The outcome – everyone feels some pain, most to UK but we voted for it.
Blair is fishing for the Presidency when Junker steps down.
A recent photo:
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Look at the x-UK leader. Draw your own conclusions but indicative of the problem with the elite and its disrespect for the Voters. UK, USA and probably other places.
He fabricated various
War-mongered
Sent young men and women to die with INFERIOR kit
Made decisions that led to Brexit
Meanwhile – Google his wife – “cherie blair scandal”
This is what the people of the UK have been under. Cameron was also “heir to Blair” and would regularly ask “what would the master do” as he thought of Blair as a political master.
Rather than asking why Brexit would occur they are hell-bent on ignoring the causes and over turning the vote.
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Look into Cherie Blair working for the Qataris and the Clinton e-mails too.
They are all related and linked with money at the core.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/05/cherie-blair-bad-week-tony-portrayal-media#img-4
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Proof of pizza gate?
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Just leave is right. The EU has no ability to bully the UK, which is a vital market for Germany and others. As to military options, the UK has nukes….
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bingo.
The UK has leverage. The EU has nothing but bluff.
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Fantastic analysis Mish. Sadly there are too many in the UK government and associated machinery who want the UK to remain. There will be a fudged compromise and the populous will accept it as they will have been worn down by the relentless shinanigans.
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Politicians get to choose what they prefer.
Ballot Paper, Pen, Ballot Box.
OR
Pitch-Fork, Rope, Chopping Block.
It has happened before in England with King vs Parliament.
Next time People vs Politicians would be no surprise.
If I was May I would call an election. Flush the system, decimate the House of Lords and change its make-up and take no prisoners. If we change lets do it all. A bloodless revolution.
I am a pacifist by the way.
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Lastly – to give you an idea of the depth of the pool. Cherie Blair working for the Qataris with mails to Clinton. It’s a deep dark pool of less than good.
“There was the release of a further batch of Hillary Clinton emails, including several showing Cherie pressing the then US secretary of state on behalf of the Qatari royal family.”
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Totally agree with your comments. If they want to play hardball, simply LEAVE. Screw their extortion demands. Why should the UK pay these crooks a penny. Just show how large their ego’s are in EU land.
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There are some contingent liabilities – no doubt – but not to 60Bn Euro.
There are pension contributions etc. Lots of people on a gravy train.
Previous Govs signed up to all sorts of stuff too.
Any monies changing hands should be over multiple years, in the national interest, and not as a penalty.
The UK Gov should be preparing for the worst possible outcome – I hope – but they have screwed up in the past.
We need allies prepared to work with what is still a bastion of democracy and a good global citizen. For whatever we have done that was less than good historically we’ve also contributed positively in the past century and can do more so in future.
Banks and multi-nationals show little loyalty and we have become too dependent on non-national businesses. Few national champions unlike the Germans and French.
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Not to forget the UK does not use Euros. So effectively EU is asking/telling UK it must purchase 60 bn Euros with £ to give those 60 bn Euros back to EU. A detail, but really EU is asking UK to contribute £ to EU… what for? Why is UK funding EU ? I cannot find a good explanation to that anywhere.
In the meantime the German government alone cannot decide on how to allocate a surplus, so it goes into a refugee/migrant fund
https://global.handelsblatt.com/finance/budget-talks-collapse-704421
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IOW the UK has a strong case if it forfeits payments to EU on the grounds that the euro it subscribed to make payments to EU with is not the euro that exists. That is to say, the value of the euro, its meaning, is not that of the one proclaimed upon entry into any contract. We can no longer say what it should be, only that it is not.
The grounds for this view are the breaches in Euro protocol, from continuous deficitary overspending, to capital restrictions being imposed, and including the very clear central bank financing of sovereign debt. For the last, though the mechanisms are at times and in ways designed and openly proclaimed to be neutral weighted to Eurozone members, the fact remains that sovereign debt is openly being funded by central bank policy, and to a nation that does not use that currency such as the UK, but is bound in payments of it, the breach of the design of its value and meaning renders calculation impossible as well as wholly unfair in moral terms due to the implication that the UK subscribes to its change of nature and the effects wrought in the process upon nations that are considered allies and friends.
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Somehow I think if Theresa May asked nice, the Don might put some pressure related to NATO. If we are still the world’s policeman, we can wield a baton.
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The “just leave” option is the best. Who can you contact there to make the point to parliament? Write to May?
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The sooner people realize that career politicians have ZERO intention of EVER proactively reforming, the sooner we can get to the end game. If the silent majority remain silent, nothing will happen. Bureaucrats will ignore referendums and mandates, while economic conditions get progressively worse as govt’s get progessively aggressive in taking other people’s money.
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“The sooner people realize that career politicians have ZERO intention of EVER proactively reforming…”
To paraphrase and improving a comment that came from some unknown source but which has been incorrectly attributed to Mark Twain, Emma Goldman, etc., “If voting actually changed anything significant which was counter the wishes of the ruling oligarchy, it wouldn’t be legal.”
According to the results of that 2014 Princeton University study I’ve previously linked to, voting in the US at anything beyond local levels and even there if the locality isn’t a very small one is simply an exercise in the -ILLUSION- of voter control. It keeps the proles from revolting, you see.
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Trump being warned off supporting the British. Trump will fall into line.
Capitals are inserted to emphasise.
“Is President Trump going to continue a tradition of half of century of being supportive of the project of European integration or is he going to continue to advocate EU member countries to follow the Brexit example?
If he did that, it would amount to a kind of non-military DECLARATION OF WAR. It would mean conflict between Europe and the United States. is that what the U.S. wants? Is that how he wishes to make America great again?”
Video: https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/832554253050863616/video/1
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The EU (the old world order) has zero leverage here. A figurative ‘declaration of war’ presumes there are two combatants, but there is only one here… the USA. Europe isn’t a player. The US holds most of the cards, incl. all of the trump cards… economy, energy, military, political leadership.
The most Europe can do is bluff. The US can make any/all the demands, and Europe will eventually toe-the-line.
The EU isn’t even strong enough to save itself, much less serve as a counter-balance to the USA. For better or worse, it is Russia that is emerging as the allied/friendly counter-balance to the USA. The EU may have had that opportunity once, but that chance is looooooong gone.
Trump’s America doesn’t fear or even respect Europe. If anything, the USA feels pity towards Europe… hardly the makings of a “conflict”.
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I believe the USA and UK are already going ahead to negotiate a trade deal, which will of course take into consideration Brexit status/contingencies. Who in USA or UK would oppose a USA-UK trade deal happening sooner rather than later? What is EU going to do, tell the UK to leave the EU?
House of Lords of course knows that if it goes too far, it will be the end of the road. Perhaps not like French Revolution or like English royalty subjected to the chopping block, but certainly not an upwards path for nobility and the upper class in a society with profound socialist forces seeking equality of wealth and wanting to abolish class distinctions ala 1917 Soviet Republic. Ultimately, politicos on EU dole will have to seek new patrons. Am wondering if USA/CIA is covertly funding anti-Brexit forces, ala Color Revolutions, Ukraine, et al. USA motto is: We Rule, You Obey. Meddling is a one-way street, okay for us, but not for you.
What Trumps says or does not say going forward is irrelevant, as his views are well known. Hungarian leader does not need reminders. Italy and Greece trajectory does not depend upon Trump. Trump already says he supports NATO, but members must pay up. EU has USA missiles in Poland and Romania that are nuclear-capable on the Russian border. USA ground troops occupy the Baltic States that were formerly occupied by the USSR. Essentially, these EU nations are vassal clients of USA and EU and have as little sovereignty as when in USSR orbit. Talk of warfare is nonsense, as EU is incapable of even patrolling its own borders.
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Have to see what changes go on under the new admin.
http://www.breitbart.com/radio/2017/02/17/chilimanov-far-left-soros-army-invades-conservative-macedonia-contributes-migrant-crisis-u-s-taxpayer-support/
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UK still has ALL of the leverage here…
The case for Brexit has only gotten stronger since the referendum. There’s no way the political class can undo Brexit now… they’ll try, but they’ll fail.
The EU is finished. What we’re watching now is theater. There is a mad scramble happening behind the curtains.
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All Britain really needs to import are natural resources and food. They can get those elsewhere. Europe is mostly mined out anyway, so doesn’t export many natural resources. Farmers in the US will be happy to sell food to Britain.
Economists like to claim that trade will lower prices at the store, but CPI prices never ever go down. Bankers just print inflation regardless of how much trade takes place. Doesn’t help Joe average.
The original work on free trade was done in the context of a gold standard. With a gold standard, trade does improve prices at the store.
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“Farmers in the US will be happy to sell food to Britain.”
Time for Liberty Ship convoys again. Just like before, the Germans will want to sink them.
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UK is quite capable of feeding itself, but what it will miss out on is access to stinky cheese and relatively cheap wine. But if you have been watching Jamie and Jimmy’s Friday Night the past couple of years on Channel 4, you will already know that the Brits are well on their way to home-growing these things, among others. As for energy, the country still has plenty of coal to fall back on, but they can still build a nuke plant or two.
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Theresa May has an easy option if the House of Lords balks…threaten to create as many new Lords as necessary to pass Brexit. This was done in the early 20th century…
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good point.
and here again we see that the Brexit/nationalist/populist camp has more than enough leverage to move forward.
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One would think that EU MEPs are tired of listening to Nigel Farage berate and ridicule them.
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Agreed Mish!!
UK should just simply leave. Tell the negotiators or powers that be for the EU to just pound sand. Then if necessary negotiate directly with each country on a as needed basis. Protect its borders with its troops and relieve its citizens of any onerous debts incorred by or to EU central bankers.
Tim
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Not that easy. UK needs trade. It also needs a stable EU to trade with.
There have not been a single market for services in the EU and the Services were the UK ace card. We were disadvantaged. Now the EU is luring away financial elements inside the wall and that will knock tax revenues in the UK before anything else comes into effect.
Tariffs and increased paperwork will hit trading values on hard goods too – less shipped at higher cost.
It’s not so easy as pulling away.
Not simple.
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The EU’s attitude about leaving should certainly make any other country think twice about joining the EU.
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They want to make any country think twice about Leaving. Many will want to join due to the cash they receive.
Once they built a large core they attracted in others with development cash and they become net recipients of money. In time, as they develop, the new countries are supposed to become net contributors (like the core) and so the boundaries roll forward to the next set of smaller countries that are offered development cash and access to a single market.
Over time the EU expands and uses access to the captive market as a bargaining chip globally.
The new joiners supply cheap labour too and easy development for the siting of new factories more cheaply than in the developed countries.
The core contribute and have a larger say globally than they do individually – France, Germany – so gain in that way and have access to cheaper labour and protected markets for agriculture (France) and Industrial/Auto (Germany). The customs union protects business internally. It is fortress Europe for business.
What value control of your own borders, laws and money? If you don’t value those things then the EU is fantastic but you can’t be in it until you give up controlling flows of people and the ECJ (European Court of Justice) is accepted as the ultimate seat of legal authority on many issues. It’s even worse if you give up your currency too.
Some countries see the wages of their less well off capped by cheaper migrant labour moving from the poorer new joiners.
In time:
One flag, one money, one border, one tax, one fiscal authority etc. Scary if you consider it can be hijacked by groups that have less concern for your country than you and your countrymen do.
Some elements are very good/useful. Some can be considered less than benign as they see integration as the ultimate aim even at all costs and some of the basis is fascist/totalitarian in nature.
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Some of the language and terms they use too are threatening in a most unpleasant way.
Idiots wishing to “punish” & “humble” countries and accusations that countries suffer from “delusion” or “exceptionalist attitudes” if they wish to do things their own way.
Some towards the top of Germany have labelled the UK “fantasy island” – they might be right, time will tell.
If you look into it there are many “ism’s” at the base of the project.
Elements of Communism, Fascism, Totalitarianism – look up the definitions of each and you will find it in the project. Look also into the instigators and their backgrounds.
It’s not all bad but neither is it all benign and some of it is fulfilment of early 20th century German ambitions achieved without war.
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Never “negotiate with a woman during a divorce. You will end up paying dearly. Why even try to negotiate with the EU when it needs all 27 remaining members to agree to the terms of the divorce?
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Hey folks, I love my neighbours the USA, as a Canadian I find this EU business no simple or humouriys matter. Our PM Trudeau just ran out to EU this last week to embrase and be accepted by EU. Our lefty news so caught up in USA affairs has found a means ti fly it under the radar with barely an intelligent or critical word to our citizenry. Google EC which is executive of EU and see for self political leanings and chart of EU, also google EU military abd for good measure 2013 article explaing a little of the obligation a EU member has to its whole. Kinda scares H… ou of me and if you follow each nes clip since surprise of Brexit and USA election it all finalized in less than 2 months. Now we also see intimations of google CANZUK which due to logistics really makes no sense to me. All of this EU nonsense to my understanding and reading has little or anything to do with Trade as much as it is my fear a Non elected Brussels, Belgium based President, 6-7 VP’s (28 Ececutives in total) presiding over Canada’s affairs as much as they expected and became comfortable doing concerning the UK’s, Canada will essentially have a President and I dont mean USA. This is what I am fearful of all while hearing prospect of a collapsing EU in news … they dont appearvto be collapsing to me. North Americans that being US and Canada need to remain together as our forefathers envisioned and fought to accomplish and stop allowing the out side influence creating division amongst ourselves.
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Canada signed-up. Just don’t expect to be told all the details at once.
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Junker might step down before end of term.
BCAN, Germany did a good job on Trudeau. No surprise your tax is defending them, they want your raw materials and I bet you’ll love all the high value finished goods they’ll ship to you.
Did you know Canada could be obliged to take all EU citizens even though Canada was concerned about some nationalities from Eastern Europe? Can adopt told to agree or take a hike.
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As a UK citizen I am all in favour of walking off to see what we would then be offered when the reality comes home in the EU. Not that the EU is destined to be around in its present form for that much longer.
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I’m not so sure, they will move mountains to keep it together. Arbitration on exit liabilities is needed.
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