On February 3, polls showed German chancellor Angela Merkel is less popular than her opponent Martin Schulz. (See Merkel an Election Shoo-In? Nope, Think Again)
Nonetheless, Merkel supporters took comfort because Merkel’s CDU/CSU party was more popular than Shulz’s SPD party.
The latest polls have since taken that lead away.
On February 6 I noted The “Impossible” Happens in Germany. The “impossible” was a rise in support for SPD by 10 percentage points in 14 days.
A quick check now shows SPD is in the lead or tied in four of the eight most current polls, and in the lead in two of the three most recent polls.
Coalition Math
The above chart modified from Opinion Polling for the 2017 German Federal Election.
I typically discard early polls in favor of more recent ones. It’s hard to know where to draw the line. One can make a case for February 5, 6, 8, or even 10. The last three or four polls likely show the current state of affairs.
Support for AFD is typically understated.
Key Points
- It is no longer a given that CDU/CSU will win the election. But it never was in my opinion.
- Even if CDU/CSU wins the election people are so sick of Merkel she may be unable to form a coalition.
- CDU/CSU + Greens + FDP = 45-49%.
- If either Die Linke or the Greens refuse to form a coalition with Merkel, she would be gone as it stands now.
- SPD + FDP + Green + Die Linke Coalition Math hits 52-54%.
Conclusion
If the other political parties want to get rid of Merkel, she is gone.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
All she has to do is say she will call for the return of the DM.
Trump would shut up.
Euro would fall and countries remaining in would be more competitive.
German inflation would fall.
Schulz would he sidelined.
AfD would have wind taken out of their sails.
Merkel would win.
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Merkel would pick up votes from all over the spectrum and Schulz would not be able to stand on that platform.
5 Star wouldn’t need to leave the Euro!
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The euro is just a euphemism for DM at this point in time. So, it would be a pointless propaganda effort for Germany to go back to DM. If Germany left the euro, all the worthless debt of Greece, Italy, et al. has to be immediately written off. For Merkel to even hint at abandoning the euro and going to DM would immediately put Deutsche Bank into bankruptcy, to name just one small consequence in a bigger chain. Kick the can down the road as long as possible and hope for a miracle will thus be the strategy, whether it be Merkel or someone else. EU political survival will likely dictate post-Versailles Treaty style massive inflation and debt cancellations. Pick a war with Russia, and all sorts of financial shenanigans are possible below the headlines. Or perhaps some other diversion will be engineered ala Operation Gladio with the cooperation of the Fakestream Media. The options are narrowing.
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Would argue that Germany would get a better deal out of leaving and allowing rest of EU to mutualize. Though it would be repaid in weaker Euros at least it would be organised as long as ECB remained. On the other hand if it were to end up with defaults then I suppose German’s would be ‘upset’. Most of the southern sovereign debt has been returned to its original countries, so the real liabilities are largely reflected in Target2.
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Merkel – the regent of Europa – will never speak of the DM. Pipe dream… it’ll NEVER happen.
The EU’s biggest sycophant is going to suddenly turn away from the Euro? Puh-lease.
Fish – come back to reality.
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Germany has financial stability going for it but socially and politically it is just as dysfunctional as the rest of Europe.
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The future of Germany depends upon Italian and French voters. German access to an undervalued currency could end. A stronger currency would reduce German manufacturing exports and reduce the German standard of living. If Italy and France deport Muslims the Germans would likely receive those Muslims. Germans seem blissfully ignorant of their future.
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Darn those Russians… 😉
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Merkel has done a fine job for her globalist masters. But I think even they realize that Angela has worn out her welcome with the German people and it’s time for a replacement. So the globalists will anoint Schulz to carry on with their agenda. A fresh face with the same programmed ideas. Nothing will change. The German culture will continue to disintegrate. Merkel will be handsomely rewarded as she leaves public office for being an incredibly loyal soldier in the face of public opposition.
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Merkel’s underlings were just boasting how Germany deported over 80,000 failed asylum seekers during 2016 and promised that even more would be deported in 2017.
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The insanity of germans is that they are not voting logically.
Despite SPD’s Sigmar Gabriel criticizing some of Merkel’s virtue-signaling open borders policies earlier in 2015-2016 SPD is still a party of open borders.
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Making matters worse is that Schulz is open borders fanatic and EU fanatic and if Schulz gets the German chancellor position I am sure he will push for the FORCED and AUTOMATIC spreading of asylum seekers from Italy and Greece to around EU countries which would re-start the rush of 2015.
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The cause for the asylum seeker rush of 2015 and early 2016 were 100% acceptance of syrians by Sweden and Germany as a POLITICALCHOICE even for syrians who had lived in SAFETY in Turkey for years and who therefore had NO RIGHT and NO REASON to get asylum, high acceptance rates for eritreans, iraqis, somalis and afganistanis around western and northern europe caused by incompetent EASO modules for making asylum decisions and EASO trainings for asylum bureaucrats (developed in crazy, lax and incompetent Sweden’s Migration Bureau (migrationsverket) and made EU-standard by EU commission by starting EASO (European Asylum Support Office)), welfare paying EU countries giving PERMANENT residences either immediately or in an automatic fashion where temporary permits turned into permanent permits unless the asylum seeker who got a temporary permit murdered someone, when countries have peaceful areas many incompetent EU-countries do not use “possibility of internal flight” to REJECT the asylum application like is possible based on the treaties, the need for protection is not reviewed when renewing residence permits so even when the asylum seeker who got a residence permit has no need for protection anymore and has been on welfare the whole time the residence permits are still renewed, Totally immoral decision by Greece, Syriza and Tsipras to stop detention in early 2015 and stop border control and just start pushing asylum seekers north to make sure they do not stay in Greece which started the rush of 2015, similar immoral behavior by Italy and Matteo Renzi in first making smugglers job easier and thereby lowering the cost smugglers charged and making more people drown because of worse condition of the smugglers boats because Italy started giving sea-taxi rides from the Libyan coast to Italy and then pushed unregistered asylum seekers north to get rid of them and when France started border controls in summer of 2015 Italy started granting residence permits like candy because Italian residence permits give free EU-movement right and Italy does not have welfare like welfare paying northern and western european EU countries so italians KNOW that most people move after welfare, also many economic migrants came because EU is INCOMPETENT in deportations so even tunisians who have NO reason to be in EU are not DEPORTED as evidenced by the tunisian who killed germans with a truck in Germany and then fled through France to Italy thanks to free movement inside EU.
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There needs to be permanent border controls between Italy and rest of Europe and Greece and rest of Europe and asylum in Greece and Italy MUST NOT include a possibility for free movement in EU, there must be NO burden sharing and spreading of asylum seekers or people who have got asylum in Greece or Italy around Europe by EU, welfare paying EU countries have to STOP LURING PEOPLE and stop paying welfare and stop giving free apartments and give just accommodation in rooms with 4-6 people even for people who get asylum and NO money only food ingredients must be given, the grating of PERMANENT residences have to STOP and only give temporary residence permits and assess need for protection at every renewal of residence permit like is allowed by the treaties, When there are SAFE areas like there are currently in Iraq, Afganistan and Somalia the asylum claims need to be REJECTED like allowed under the treaties based on the possibility of internal flight, There should be NO asylums given to syrians who have lived in SAFETY in Turkey for years like is allowed under the treaties based on living in a SAFE 3rd country, the incompetent EU-directives demanding fast processing of asylum claims have to be removed because fast processing leads to more liars and fake asylum seekers getting through, quick family re-unifications straight to welfare as mandated by incompetent EU-family re-unification directive have to be STOPPED because this is a LURE to come, the insanity of LURING eritreans to desert eritrean army and rewarding eritrean army deserters with residence permit, welfare and free apartment has to be stopped and start RETURNING every eritrean after making a deal with eritrea that there are no punishments for army deserters because the army desertion epidemic stops immediately after EU stops luring eritreans, EASO with it’s swedish inspired modules and swedish developed bureaucrat traings has to be SCRAPPED.
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ALL people saved from the sea between Turkey and Greece have to be taken back to Turkey and ALL people saved from the sea between Libya and Italy have to be taken back to Libya like the Gentiloni plan agreed so the drownings stop and the smuggling business stops and the rush to europe stops and people will spend the thousands of dollars they have been paying per person to smugglers to building businesses in their home countries instead of dreaming about free apartment in Europe, free welfare in Europe and permanent residence permit in Europe like they are currently doing.
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Somalis that have “escaped” Somalia to Finland earlier and gotten finnish passport take regular vacations in Somalia and send their kids to schools in Somalia and build summer cottages in Somalia and still the INCOMPETENT finnish government allowed new somalis to get asylums with high acceptance rates until summer of 2016 and did NOT cancel residence permits from thousands of somalis who have NO NEED FOR PROTECTION anymore and who have stayed on welfare during their entire time in Finland and who commit rapes and violent assault much more frequently than other immigrants or native finns.
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Finnish government is almost as clueless and INCOMPETENT than Sweden and Germany have been.
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“Schulz is open borders fanatic and EU fanatic”, yes & not only that but he will also work to get the Germans to sign-up in “solidarity” to bail-out the Euro casualty countries.
The transfers, or whatever they might be called at the time, would be the stuff of legend,
The Germans aint seen nothing yet in my humble opinion.
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I’ve always had great respect for the German people post WW2. But my confidence in them is waning. If they can’t see that their culture is being led to the slaughterhouse they just aren’t as sharp as I thought. Perhaps I overestimated their strength as an ethnic group.
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Not properly sure what is going on in Germany, what I find hard to fathom is how a country can be so far left in certain ways but at the same time set against mutualized sovereign European debt. I can only think that society there is divided. I am not one to judge people by nationality, as what people lack in one sense is usually made up in another, but of the German people I have known all seemed to lack a certain perspective, not sure which one exactly or what their attention is otherwise devoted to…cannot put it better than that, and not meant to mean better or worse than any other people.
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What a good post katsaus
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SPD and Die Linke have a schism between them so the likelihood of them getting into a same government is not high.
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If SPD wins the most likely government is SPD+Greens+FDP if SPD gets enough votes and this would be a total nightmare because German Greens are the party that started as a party the “refugees welcome” insanity and hysteria with Green Party members actually writing hundreds of “refugees welcome” signs for German people to hold.
FDP is open borders and globalist and as blind to dangers of immigration as Jeb “illegal immigration is an act of love” Bush.
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Schulz is open borders fanatic and EU fanatic.
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Winning plan for CDU/CSU:
CDU/CSU need to tighten their immigration and asylum policies QUICKLY by a lot more (including PERMANENT DETENTION for all immigrants convicted of crimes until their DEPORATION succeeds) and then Merkel needs to apologize for mistakes that were made and go to the right of AfD on immigration and asylum policies but keep it issue based instead of some of the time wasting done by some AfD members with hard rhetoric but little practical solutions issue by issue and THEN Merkel needs to directly CHALLENGE open borders Schulz and compare him to irresponsibility of the Greens.
Merkel also needs to EXTERNALIZE some of the blame for 2015-2016 to EU-commission, to EASO, to incompetent asylum processing EU-directives and family re-unification EU-directives that were the original lures to come by EU before Merkel went INSANE in 2015.
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This strategy would eat some votes away from SPD and AfD to CDU/CSU making Merkel the top dog in coalition building after elections if CDU/CSU wins.
Then make a government with CDU/CSU+AfD+FDP or grand coalition of CDU/CSU+SPD.
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Not all SPD members love Schulz…
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AfD leadership is NOT using the opportunities they have and instead they have taken to HARD RHETORIC instead of offering solution-solution-solution type message like I have in just a few messages.
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Plus Seehofer needs to get more airtime in ALL of Germany as a face of CDU/CSU and he needs to be promised control of all the ministries dealing with internal security and asylum, immigration and deportation issues and CDU/CSU can win.
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Seehofer should just split from the other stupid part of the party.
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SPD and Die Linke have a schism between them so the likelihood of them getting into the same government is not high.
Die Linke participates in governments in the states of Brandenburg, as junior partner to the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD); Thuringia with the SPD and The Greens in a three-party coalition with The Left parliamentarian Bodo Ramelow serving as Minister-President; and Berlin with the SPD and Greens in a three-party coalition, led by Michael Müller of the SPD.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Left_(Germany)
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http://www.politico.eu/article/the-german-lefts-faustian-moment-die-linke-party-leader-sahra-wagenknacht-der-faust-pakt-der-deutschen-linken-merkel-english/
http://www.politico.eu/article/germany-sigmar-gabriel-shows-support-for-left-wing-coalition-greens-die-linke/
Looks possible but fraught.
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regional vs. federal.
apples vs. oranges.
i have to agree w/ katsaus… the liklihood of a successful coalition w/o CDU-CSU is very, very low. the germans already know this – “the middle” will vote for stability/status quo above all else.
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The greens underline the stupidity of the movement. Take a load of people from places with a low per capita consumption and dump them into a consumer society. In addition they tend to pop out a kid a year. That will save the planet. The greens support their brothers-in-brain.
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A primary driver behind the anti-establishment movements in Europe is the open borders policy that has overwhelmed much of Europe with young men, not families. The MSM ignores the problem, pretending that the problem is limited to Sweden, or doesn’t even exist in Sweden. Brexit and Trump won largely because of immigration problems, despite pro-immigrant propaganda from the establishment. If they fail in Greece, Italy, France, Netherlands, and Germany, will they admit defeat or political failure? Did they in the US?
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Off Topic: Rioting in Sweden-Will Trump be blamed?
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Are you kidding me?
If the Northern Lights suddenly went dark Trump would get blamed for it.
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“The terrifying scenes took place just hours after the country’s Prime Minister, Stefan Löfven, slammed Donald Trump for claiming Sweden was in crisis as a result of its liberal refugee policy.”
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/770010/Police-shoot-rioters-violence-erupts-no-go-zone-PM-denies-Sweden-crisis
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Mish, you may find this interesting:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-15-left-in-the-bank-a-baby-boomer-makes-peace-with-less-1487259894
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Hillary will hand Angela a box of tissues.
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FYI – in related news…..
Le Pen’s Party Says HQ Raided in Parliamentary Aides Case
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-20/le-pen-s-party-says-hq-raided-in-parliamentary-aides-case-izecv9rt?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
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