On February 3, polls showed German chancellor Angela Merkel is less popular than her opponent Martin Schulz. (See Merkel an Election Shoo-In? Nope, Think Again)

Nonetheless, Merkel supporters took comfort because Merkel’s CDU/CSU party was more popular than Shulz’s SPD party.

The latest polls have since taken that lead away.

On February 6 I noted The “Impossible” Happens in Germany. The “impossible” was a rise in support for SPD by 10 percentage points in 14 days.

A quick check now shows SPD is in the lead or tied in four of the eight most current polls, and in the lead in two of the three most recent polls.

Coalition Math

german-polls-2017-02-2

The above chart modified from Opinion Polling for the 2017 German Federal Election.

I typically discard early polls in favor of more recent ones. It’s hard to know where to draw the line. One can make a case for February 5, 6, 8, or even 10. The last three or four polls likely show the current state of affairs.

Support for AFD is typically understated.

Key Points

  1. It is no longer a given that CDU/CSU will win the election. But it never was in my opinion.
  2. Even if CDU/CSU wins the election people are so sick of Merkel she may be unable to form a coalition.
  3. CDU/CSU + Greens + FDP = 45-49%.
  4. If either Die Linke or the Greens refuse to form a coalition with Merkel, she would be gone as it stands now.
  5. SPD + FDP + Green + Die Linke Coalition Math hits 52-54%.

Conclusion

If the other political parties want to get rid of Merkel, she is gone.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock