Recent PresiTrack Polls for French national elections show eurosceptic Marine le Pen is not only in the lead for round one, but she has significantly closed the gap in round two as well.
Round One French Presidential Election
Round One Five Key Points
- Le Pen in Front
- Fillon Stabilized at Worst
- Macron Tied with Fillon
- Hamon in Decline
- Melenchon in Decline
Round Two Macron vs. Le Pen
Round Two Macron vs. Le Pen Five Key Points
- Macron Peaked on February 8: 66%
- Le Pen Bottomed on February 8 at 34%
- Macron at 58% on February 22
- Le Pen at 42% on February 22
- Eight Point Swing to Le Pen in 14 days
Round Two Fillon vs. Le Pen
Round Two Fillon vs. Le Pen Five Key Points
- Fillon Peaked on February 8: 62%
- Le Pen Bottomed on February 8 at 38%
- Fillon at 57% on February 22
- Le Pen at 43% on February 22
- Five Point Swing to Le Pen in 14 days
Who would you like to see elected President of the Republic on May 7?
Voter Preference Two Key Points
- Le Pen Topped Macron on February 22, Taking the Lead for the First Time.
- Macron Down Five Percentage Points Since February 7.
Election Issues
“Without thinking of the candidate who has your preference, among the following candidates in the presidential election, which one has scored the most points in the past week? “
Marine le Pen is scoring the most points with voters despite a recent surge for Fillon.
Mish Comments
- Le Pen stacks up well vs. Macron and Fillon on Jobs, pensions, security, terrorism, and immigration.
- The idea she cannot win or is highly unlikely to win is a serious mistake.
- Those on the Right may well vote for Macron in that pairing, but will those on the Left vote for Fillon?
- I suspect Le Pen would beat Fillon.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
“Which of the following issues…”
EU and Euro not listed. Terrorism and immigration may be proxies.
(Environment outside the top 10, as usual.)
Macron has blown it by saying colonialism was a “crime against humanity”, dredging up the haunting memory of the Algerian War which the French had buried in the interests of unity and social stability. It is not a matter of guilt but of needlessly opening wounds in the pursuit of votes.
He has been trying to repair today too.
In UK telling everyone he will poach the brightest and the best to go to France post Brexit to wrap himself in the tricolour. He met with Theresa May. Determined to damage the UK.
Oxford Uni (assholes) will develop operation in Paris after being offered sweetners. You might not be aware but they are top drawer new tech/business incubator.
Macron has also said there will be no chaNge to Franco-German alliance under him as President and links will be made stronger than ever.
A vote for Macron is a vote for the status quo, big time.
as always, the choice is between a douche and a shit sandwich. those poor french seem unable to capture any quality or vision in how to correct the decline of france at an ever increasing pace into debt servitude. still, you get the politicians you deserve. by WASP standards all candidates are poor choices, much like those in italy and spain. germany also seems determined to bring about its own collapse via unaffordable socialism.
merde!
You could trade US for France in that and it would also be perfectly true.
Only thing in favour of French re. debt is mediumish household debt
https://jakubmarian.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/houshold-debt.jpg
That is called “cultural differences”. France was a paternalist state since perhaps Philip the Fair. They will never buy American free market capitalism as it will work poorly with their national mentality.
From named candidates, Le Pen is arguably the best.
I will treat all the polls with a grain of salt. How well did the polls do in our election and even the Brexit referendum?
This has to change, Europeans heading IMF that is so pro-Euro nothing else matters much.
5/11 French and if you include Belgium as a proxy for France it’s 6.
https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/chron/mds.asp
The last two French had high profile charges against them!
Then look at the Presidential candidates.
Why such an important body should always be headed by a European (last 2 French with charges) is beyond me given how the world is changing.
Can Trump influence this at all?
And where would the discarded politicians go? Politicians are elected by the media, I mean the voters, but the head of IMF and such need superb backroom dealing skills and the right connections. The leaders outside Europe and America who could object have impeccable western credentials, and benefit by being on the globalization team.
There is plenty of time so Islamist terror and anti-French/Whites/West rhetoric will push MLP even higher.
1) Polls considering Rd.2 match-ups ahead of Rd.1 are worthless. cognitive dissonance all but assures that people will not be honest/accurate concerning a “second choice” whilst the “first choice” is still viable in their minds.
2) Like the US & UK, these polls are SURELY skewed heavily towards urban demographics. Expect the real election results to reveal a wide divide between urban-rural voters, with urban sentiments being over-stated in pre-election polls & rural sentiments vastly under-represented in pre-election polls.
3) Three questions: What sort of pro-globalist events might occur ahead of the election? What sort of pro-nationalist events might occur ahead of the election? Which type of events are more/most likely to occur? Honest answers to these three questions would indicate that LePen’s support has a higher ceiling & higher floor than any of the other candidates… LePen is sailing with the wind, whilst the others are tacking into the wind…
The fact that LePen is LEADING right now speaks volumes… her support is too large/widespread to be misrepresented by the media… LePen/FN are ‘mainstream’ – whether the establishment likes it or not – and this turns the political dynamic of EUROPE on it’s head…
French economy is starting to fire on more cylinders. Macron might try to get benefit of that even though its as a result of ECB actions.
He was in London today, it has as many French to be the 6th largest city in France.
There was a big rally in support of Macron for President – I guess many of the x-pat French in London can vote and might for Macron. Metropolitan.
Watching what the establishment is up to with regards:
Protests to pull down Fillon and Le Pen
http://www.thelocal.fr/20170220/protests-in-france-over-fake-jobs-among-corrupt-politicians
Soros
http://freewestmedia.com/2017/02/15/soros-pouring-money-into-google-macron-to-stop-le-pen/
“I have a Brussels source (usually reliable) who claims that both the accusations against Fillon’s wife (tax evasion on a role she never fulfilled in any real sense) and LePen herself (misuse of EU funds) originated in that city. This source also claims there is CIA involvement in the disinformation campaign.
I’m on the record over and over as saying that Truth is diced, mixed with Lies and then served up as cing étoiles nouvelle cuisine as a matter of course in 2017.
But earlier this afternoon, a medium-grade Washington Slogger unconnected to the first source said he was sure that both CIA money and Black Arts are now “massively involved” in turning the French election in favour of a “bet the farm” EUNATO candidate.”
https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2017/02/10/fake-news-and-counterfeit-candidates-are-brussels-and-the-cia-behind-the-french-presidential-front-runner/
https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2017/02/14/george-soros-and-the-trail-of-fake-news-leading-to-emmanuel-macron-via-robby-mook/
I believe you.
All of the ‘connected’ people in the USA were convinced that the establishment/deep state would never allow DT to win the election. They were assured that such a thing could never happen… CIA, State, Pentagon… all the kings horses & all the kings men were hard at work putting Humpy Hillary back together again…
Yet Trump still won.
Are the Deep State globalists + CIA certain to be more successful in FR than they were in the USA? If so, why?
If these clowns weren’t able to rig an election in the rotten&corrupt USA, the I see no reason why they will be suddenly successful in rigging an election in FR… everything is moving against them.
Of course the elitists will TRY to swing the election to a EUNATO puppet, but I believe the odds are against them.
Mpower, I agree there but just to remember France has a different dynamic of people , issues, and sentiments than the US, although the lines of contest are similar in terms of large political groupings. I cannot predict anything clear from what I know, but certainly Le Pen has a good possibility of becoming president… I actually think she will be denied it but time will tell…voters that agree with her are generally not interested in the show, just quietly casting their ballot.
John Ward is an English blogger currently living in France.
WordPress just ate my comment twice, not even ‘awaiting moderation’…
Third try without full link:
A lot to consider in this article
Google from the Saker french-elite-chose-their-new-pawn-emmanuel-macron-former-director-of-banque-rothschild
So the Saker link gets swept, but a link to this Mish page posted as test goes to moderation.
?
France or Sweden as sad examples who so called muslim refuges… Thanks God we have Trump but a half of Americans ( as usuful idiots) dream to be rape victims , abuses, violent treatment , bombs , the sharia law …. Tell me guys what have happened with this country .
One has to wonder if the polls and the news are as unreliable in France as they were, and are, in the USA with Establishment media advancing an Establishment agenda and ya know…Marie LePen is a Fascist Authoritarian.
Marie LePen does more for women’s rights in less than a minute than protesters dressed like vaginas marching in the streets. http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/02/marine-le-pen-cancels-meeting-lebanons-grand-mufti-refuses-wear-head-scarf-video/
Muslims are rioting in Paris and Sweden.
PARIS RIOTS MAPPED: Violence spreads to 20 areas ACROSS FRANCE
THE ongoing trouble in Paris which has led to riots in some parts of the capital is spreading across France as vigilantes stage running battles with police in protest of the rape of a young black man. http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/768257/Paris-riots-spread-to-Lille-Rouen-Nantes-violent-Theo-demonstrations
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-sweden-riot-rinkeby-20170221-story,amp.html
Riots erupt in Sweden’s capital after arrest, just days after Trump comments Max Bearak The Washington Post
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4245322/Riots-Stockholm-suburb-Trump-mentioned-speech.html?ito=social-facebook
Rioters began setting fire to cars, throwing stones at police and looting shops in the Rinkeby district of Stockholm Suburb, north of central Stockholm, has a population of 75 per cent immigrants
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4245322/Riots-Stockholm-suburb-Trump-mentioned-speech.html#ixzz4ZMtm2ehI
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Sweden: Rape Capital of the West
by Ingrid Carlqvist and Lars Hedegaard
February 14, 2015 at 5:00 am
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5195/sweden-rape
Just saying France is a two round system; the question is who will be on the ballot of the second round, not who is going to win. LePen’s dad did even better once and still lost the election. The only way to win in the first round is to have more than 50% of total vote.
Le Pen has not won the French election, its just that she has united the racist groups in France, should it be Macron then my guess is that the second round wlll be either 45/55 or 40/60 for Macron. Its the same for the others
Jesus, understand that the French electoral system is very different…
Chill
Uh, maybe if you chilled a little less yourself you’d notice the multiple headings in the article referring to round two.
“I suspect Le Pen would beat Fillon.”
So do I, but California does not let me place a bet on the outcome. It is not certain but as of today is the best bet.
Mish,
I seldom comment as you are usually right and I feel I have little to contribute.
But as a Frenchman observing all this from outside of France, it seems to me that the polls should be corrected by the fact that Macron has all the press behind him. He’s the equivalent of Hillary is what I’m saying.
A recent YouTube video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BPckfQ8N7c) has shown how artificial the enthusiasm of his meetings are. Another video (I lost the link) shows a journalist interviewing young people at his meetings. It quickly becomes evident that they are paid to be there and have no opinion about it.
Of course Marine Le Pen is portrayed as the new Hitler, so most believe that in the second round she doesn’t stand a chance (like her father in 2002).
Finally, Fillon seems to emerge as the light version of an anti-establishment figure:
1. He got hammered by the media for having his wife on France’s payroll. All politicians do that, although Marine Le Pen has a better strategy: you employ my spouse, I employ yours (with fellow elected people from the same party).
2. He refuses to demonize Putin, Bashar Al-Assad etc.
So assuming Macron is overbought, as an investor would say, and we get a Fillon-Le Pen duel, my guess is Fillon would be elected in a landslide.
Finally, as the election of Donald Trump has shown that nothing is impossible, it seems to me that the only French politician who draws real crowds without paying them, or without chauffeuring them (Fillon pays for private buses to bring mostly elderly people to the meetings), is Jean-Luc Mélenchon. His numbers seem too low to matter, but eventually, who knows?
Just my 2 cents.
Interesting post.
Do you think that the inability of Macron to get a parliamentary majority will affect French voters as the election day nears? It would seem like there is going to be a lot of horse trading and dealing if either Macron or Le Pen win.
Thanks.
No, I don’t think the voters think that far. Did the election of Donald Trump have anything to do with voters being affected by the fact that he may or may not have a majority in Congress? I don’t think so.
As I write this it has been confirmed that François Bayrou announced his support of Macron, which hillarizes Macron even more. And everyone Bayrou has ever supported has lost.
So my bet in on Fillon/Le Pen, with a possible surprise (higher number than polls, I don’t think it’s reasonable to think he gets to second round) coming from Mélenchon.
In the second round, Fillon in a landslide (if against Le Pen).
Final (I hope) edit: if I’m wrong and Macron is in the second round, it means that the 500 families and the Le Siècle think tank have a better hold on France than the deep state does in the United States.
Well OK, so that wasn’t the final one, but to explain why I talk about a potential “Mélenchon surprise”, take a look at this:
https://twitter.com/mbaladieudo/status/834126388210839552
I thought the results would appear. Let’s try something else:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/rizir9jh6t5ab2w/Screenshot%202017-02-23%2009.10.33.png?dl=0
Edit of previous post. Here’s the second link I had mentioned:
https://twitter.com/yumbo59000/status/833001607356874752
Fillon is closer to Le Pen on immigration.
Macron is clueless open borders fool wallowing in french guilt.
However Fillon is much more rightist on economy than Le Pen who is more like a social democrat.
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I predict Le Pen will win in 2nd round 51-49 against either Macron or Fillon.
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However Le Pen should also try to get some votes from immigrants who are already french by promising more jobs and better education also for children of immigrants and by making it clear that immigrants suffer most from radical islam spreading among them and that muslim immigrants themselves suffer most from rioting and burning cars and schools in their ghettoes.
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Make France great again.
Time may be running out for the Euro-zone, is it time to throw in the towel? For years this poorly constructed union has been criticized for being unable to resolve difficult issues but rather kicking the can down the road, postponing and delay have become the standard operation procedure for which they are known.
Euro-zone banks are neither “fixed” or the system healthy. The Greek economy remains an issue. Italy is deeply in debt, unemployment is high in many countries especially among the youth, and refugees continue to flood in adding more stress to an overburdened social system. Now the people of both France and Germany are indicating they may of had enough. The article below delves into these problems.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2017/02/euro-zone-woes-continue-enshrouded-by.html
Does anyone know anything about John Ward and his web site “The Slog?”
Macron has had a lengthy streak of incredible luck so far (barring one stumble), but his numbers haven’t improved much from the 19-23% range. However, we will have to see whether the Bayrou alliance has any significant effect.
A lot seems to hinge of whether Fillon can recover from Penelopegate or the inquiry will be cancelled. His numbers seem to be mostly depressed due to that investigation. It would seem like a lot of undecideds will not want anyone representing the Hollande status quo when April comes.
Some questions about a potential Macron victory:
What would actually happen if Macron wins? He won’t have a parliamentary majority and what policies exactly would he implement (and how different from Hollande)? Would Macron face down protests to make economic reforms and reduce the size of the civil service? Who would be the kingmakers who would select his prime minister? Would En Marche fatally damage the Socialist Party in the legislative elections?
The Socialist Party is not likely to do well in the parliamentary elections this year in almost any scenario so that means that a lot of the parliament will be from the right. Can’t see En Marche getting beyond 1/3 of seats (even that would be extreme).