Former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi resigned in 2011 in the midst of a eurozone crisis after the Italian parliament voted for austerity measures. He blames then ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet for his ouster.
Berlusconi was replaced by a technocrat Mario Monti, the first of four consecutive Italian technocrats.
He wants back in power, and he also wants Italy out of the Eurozone. Recent political moves indicate Berlusconi desires to destroy the euro even more than he wants back in power.
The following is from Eurointelligence, via email, emphasis mine.
Berlusconi Really Wants to destroy the Euro
Silvio Berlusconi is trying to forge a new centre-right alliance ahead of the elections that will either take place this autumn or in the spring of next year. Corriere della Sera reports this morning that this task is going to be more difficult following Berlusconi’s suggestion that he wants to nominate Luca Zaia as the centre-right’s joint candidate for the job of prime minister. Zaia is a member of the Lega Nord, governor of the province Venice, a cabinet member in Berlusconi’s government, and an outspoken eurosceptic.
The statement was immediately disowned by Matteo Salvini, the leader of the Lega, who says that he was the candidate of his party, and the man best placed to take on Matteo Renzi. We assume that Berlusconi’s foray serves the purpose to split, and weaken, the Lega and Salvini. Whether we can expect to see a pre-electoral alliance between Forza Italia and the Lega will also depend in part on the details of the electoral law that have to be agreed before the next elections. The most important question is whether the new electoral law will apply the 40% threshold for the majority bonus not only to political parties – pointless since none has any chance to achieve it – but also to coalitions. Since the Italian political landscape is splitting three ways, we see it as virtually impossible that even a coalition can meet that threshold. This means that the next election will be fought under a de facto proportional system – and there will be no incentive for the small parties to subbordinate their interests to the larger ones as long as they are meeting the minimal thresholds for representation, which the Lega does.
What is interesting about Berlusconi’s recommendation of Zaia is that the latter is a virulent opponent of Italy’s euro membership – and this could become the position around which the centre-right unites. Berlusconi himself believes that he was ousted by Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Commission, and a europhile Italian establishment, so we should not underestimate his appetite for revenge. Forza Italia is no longer the party it once was, and Berlusconi himself no longer seems to push himself as a candidate for the top job. But the point is that both the Five Star Movement and the Berlusconi/Lega/Fratelli sphere are anti-euro. The only pro-Europeans are the PD moderates, who are now self-destructing under Renzi’s divisive leadership. We will be keeping a close eye on these developments.
Italexit Pieces Keep Falling Into Place
Pieces of “Italexit” keep falling into place.
We have talked about this before, but the Five Star Movement, the Northern League (Lega Nord), and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party are all eurosceptic. The only major pro-euro party is former prime minister Matteo Renzi’s PD party.
Renzi has no chance to win 40% of the vote and almost no chance now of forming a coalition.
Renzi promotes Renzi-ism as Alternative to Trump-ism, Le Pen-ism, Grillo-ism but the splintering of PD is the only result.
The other parties disagree on many things but they are united in two important ways:
- They want to keep Renzi out of power
- They want to hold a referendum on the Euro
As noted on February 20, “Italeave” Odds Increase: Rebellion in Italy, Matteo Renzi’s PD Party to Split.
The odds increased further with this latest move by Berlusconi.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
As I have said on more than occasion..the slumbering Vestiges of a Pre-World War One..EUROPE are re-awaking. People within various countries were willing to Give Up Immense Amounts of Sovereignty for a Chance to get Better Lives and Economic Futures. However,since most of what they have Seen and Experienced is the Rich getting Richer and the Poor..POORER,They Now Simply want their Sovereignty BACK,and are willing to Take their Own Chances in that Arena..! Its Not Rocket Science folks…lolol
The UK might not have to leave the EU: The EU might ‘leave’ the UK by simply falling to pieces itself before the UK acts.
The EU… You can checkout any time you want, but you can never leave.
Three big fat lies in the Australian housing market
Three big fat lies in the housing market1:18
There are some very good reasons not to trust those claiming that the key numbers in Australia’s property market are still reasonable.
• March 3rd 2017
• 5 hours ago
• /video/video.news.com.au/Sponsored Content/
• James Kirby
• The Australian
• March 3, 2017
House prices in Sydney and Melbourne continue to climb, but key regulators are assuring the market not to worry. Unfortunately, many of the often-quoted figures don’t stand up to even the most perfunctory examination. Watch the video
Italexit, there is merit in this blog post below.
Bluntly, not only not a solution but virtually impossible.
A burning building with no exits.
The Euro ALWAYS intended to be a one way Street to full unification. Converge, no matter how painful, the ultimate convergence tool.
“A far better and less costly solution would be to address Italy’s underlying problems, allowing the country to survive and thrive within the euro by enhancing potential growth and economic resilience.”
How did that work out for Greece? Italy hasn’t grown since joining the euro but everything can be done better tomorrow, let’s pretend we all live in space with no gravity.
Collapse of euro is not a question of if but when. It could be fixed by united States of Europe but do you see it going in that direction?
” Some day the nations of Europe may be ready to merge their national identities and create a new European Union – the United States of Europe. If and when they do, a European Government will take over all the functions which the Federal government now provides in the U.S., or in Canada or Australia. This will involve the creation of a “full economic and monetary union”. But it is a dangerous error to believe that monetary and economic union can precede a political union or that it will act (in the words of the Werner report) “as a leaven for the evolvement of a political union which in the long run it will in any case be unable to do without”. For if the creation of a monetary union and Community control over national budgets generates pressures which lead to a breakdown of the whole system it will prevent the development of a political union, not promote it.”
The only barrier to returning to national currency is making the decision to do so. Politics is overrated as a constructive force, generally it is mostly superfluous to what is necessary, and the Euro brings just one more layer of obfuscation and lack of responsibility.
So it is just a smokescreen, where those who profit from it warn that if you return to own currency the flames will not be extinguished and the edifice will burn. Warfare, language of warfare, raining fire from the sky and promising anguish if there is no surrender.
1995-1999, Milton Friedman spoke on his thoughts on the Euro. His timming was not perfect but otherwise its proving correct except the architects were cunning. No exit was ever allowed for so the failure will be catastrophic to some countries. Some that survive will go through a veil of tears in any case.
Talk of “exits” are nonsense unless an economy and people are totally prepared to be wrecked. The pain must be so economically intense at the voter level the country will acquiesce to surrendering more sovereignty as less painful than an exit.
Brexit (none monetary union) will be painful enough just to leave the EU. Countries in the EURO would have it even worse for a period before recovery. Recovery would come but not at all sure any Government would survive until then and politicians are generally shit scared of losing office.
Convergence, where it occurs, would be painful enough in the south anyway.
Italian performance is improving slowly and it might be enough to stop momentum towards an exit that is close to impossible anyway.
It’s easy to theorise but practicalities interfere with fantasy.
Any Government that surrenders monetary sovereignty without a referendum of citizens should find themselves on trial. Control the money, control the country. Same for issuing excess debt that gives control to creditors – put the Government on trial.
For all the words used, Italy will not leave the Euro.
. “Same for issuing excess debt that gives control to creditors – put the Government on trial.”
A fantasy, no control to creditors in US or Japan. Monetarily sovereign government is different.
Prof Wynne Godley: Any nation that cannot draw on its Reserve Bank for money but goes into market to compete with private sector is a colony.
People are not fooled, pain cannot be applied within the Euro and have people believe that it is what will happen if they leave. All they see is high levels of corruption which even the government has no liberty to self fund itself out of or promote itself above.
Tony of CA said:
Milt Friedman is not worth quoting. He theories have been utterly discredited. Italy is no longer functioning as a country. They will eventually leave the EU.
Tony of CA said:
I’m not sure where you obtaining your information, but Italy’s economy is not improving. It’s Banks are hemorrhaging from non-performing loans while tourism is in the tank due to the migrate crisis.
Mike Bravo said:
That’s all fine and good, but Italy has turned the trans-shipment of migrants to the north into a profit centre (“free” money from the EU), so a large part of Italian society are going to cling on to the Euro and EU until the country utterly implodes … and even then some.
Italy at this point looks way more sure thing about the euro than Fance. It doesn’t look now that Le Pen will win the second round even though she might. I don’t see europhile political forces in Italy really(only Renzi’s party). Berlusconi is a crook of course, he can be bought.
Caledonian Calaban said:
The problem with any possible Italexit is that Italy itself is possibly just as bizarre and artificial a construct as the EU is. In fact, Italy probably needs the EU to actually stave off utter and complete fragmentation. I have met many Italians but I have never met one yet that believed in this thing called ‘Italy’. It used to be the pipe-dream of a few eccentric Turinese intellectuals; ridiculed but tolerated. Now it is merely referred to as that ‘den of thieves’ in Rome. Whether the thieves in Brussels are viewed as a bigger threat is highly debatable.
Reblogged this on sentinelblog.