The Atlanta Fed GDPNOw Model for 1st quarter GDP dipped once again today and now sits at 1.2% as of March 9.

Meanwhile, the FRBNY Nowcast Model sits at a robust 3.1%. as of March 3.

The spread is just shy of two full percentage points. One or both of these models are seriously wrong.

In five weeks, the GDP Now Model shed 2.2 percentage points in growth estimates.

GDPNow Evolution

Date Detail Item GDP Estimate
30-Jan Initial nowcast 2.3
1-Feb ISM Manufact., Construct. spending 3.4
2-Feb Light vehicle sales 3.1
3-Feb Employ. Sit., Manuf. (M3), ISM Nonm. 2.7
7-Feb Foreign trade, Mobile homes (Feb 6) 2.7
9-Feb Wholesale trade 2.7
10-Feb Imp./Exp prices; Treasury statement 2.7
15-Feb Retail trade, CPI, Industrial production 2.2
16-Feb Housing starts 2.4
22-Feb Exisiting-home sales 2.5
24-Feb New-home sales/costs 2.5
27-Feb Advance durable manufacturing 2.5
1-Mar GDP/Adv. Econ. Indicators (Feb 28), Personal income/PCE, ISM Manuf., Construction spending 1.8
2-Mar Light vehicle sales 1.5
3-Mar ISM Nonmanufacturing Index 1.5
6-Mar M3 Manufacturing report 1.3
7-Mar International trade 1.3
8-Mar Wholesale trade 1.2

Even if the difference between GDPNow and Nowcast splits down the middle, they will both be about 1 full percentage point off the mark.

However, a Nowcast update comes out tomorrow and I expect it to dip at least a fair amount.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock