The Atlanta Fed GDPNOw Model for 1st quarter GDP dipped once again today and now sits at 1.2% as of March 9.
Meanwhile, the FRBNY Nowcast Model sits at a robust 3.1%. as of March 3.
The spread is just shy of two full percentage points. One or both of these models are seriously wrong.
In five weeks, the GDP Now Model shed 2.2 percentage points in growth estimates.
|Date||Detail Item||GDP Estimate|
|1-Feb||ISM Manufact., Construct. spending||3.4|
|2-Feb||Light vehicle sales||3.1|
|3-Feb||Employ. Sit., Manuf. (M3), ISM Nonm.||2.7|
|7-Feb||Foreign trade, Mobile homes (Feb 6)||2.7|
|10-Feb||Imp./Exp prices; Treasury statement||2.7|
|15-Feb||Retail trade, CPI, Industrial production||2.2|
|27-Feb||Advance durable manufacturing||2.5|
|1-Mar||GDP/Adv. Econ. Indicators (Feb 28), Personal income/PCE, ISM Manuf., Construction spending||1.8|
|2-Mar||Light vehicle sales||1.5|
|3-Mar||ISM Nonmanufacturing Index||1.5|
|6-Mar||M3 Manufacturing report||1.3|
Even if the difference between GDPNow and Nowcast splits down the middle, they will both be about 1 full percentage point off the mark.
However, a Nowcast update comes out tomorrow and I expect it to dip at least a fair amount.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock